how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[WAPatriot]

I think 250 would be the sweet spot for the state maximizing revenue. And it would still increase draw odds. Maybe 1000 is the sweet spot I don't know. I'd depends on the odds but I can spend 250 for a 1 in 10 chance in Idaho for moose.

[huntnphool]

I think 250 would be the sweet spot for the state maximizing revenue.  I'd depends on the odds but I can spend 250 for a 1 in 10 chance in Idaho for moose.

 So basically it should be based on what you are comfortable and can afford paying, those that can't afford $250 are simply left out, got it.

[WAPatriot]

I don't know how much I'd be willing to pay it would depend on the odds. People who have applied for 25 years would pay half as much as a new guy. Also if you don't want to pay for the full 50 points you wouldn't have to.  The people with 15 points would still probably have the same chance as they currently do. I'd be curious how many people would go for the full 50 points.

[Magnum_Willys]

Shane - I get your point, it seems reasonable that if you put one white marble and 9 black marbles in each of five buckets that the odds of drawing the white marble should be the same from each bucket, and from the total of each of the buckets just as if they were all dumped in one bucket - 5:50 or 10%. 

However that isn't the case.  Why?  Because your odds of winning at the first bucket are 10%.  But wait - you aren't done, you get to keep playing four more times so your odds of winning increase.  Yes its 10% per bucket but there is actually a 41% chance you will draw a white marble overall from five buckets. 

[idahohuntr]

I think 250 would be the sweet spot for the state maximizing revenue.  I'd depends on the odds but I can spend 250 for a 1 in 10 chance in Idaho for moose.

 So basically it should be based on what you are comfortable and can afford paying, those that can't afford $250 are simply left out, got it.

Lets just skip the whole draw thing - open up online bidding for every single tag.  Let supply and demand work out what people are actually willing to pay. 

While I loathe the actual idea of just selling off all the hunting opportunities in the state - it would be kind of interesting to see what tags would sell for...could I pick up a cow tag for $300? Oh look - a Dayton quality bull tag for $2800 and the auction ends in 3 minutes 

[724wd]

IT'S.  A.  LOTTERY.

You are not guaranteed a tag!  bummer you don't draw, but you have the opportunity every year! 

[BULLBLASTER]

Shane - I get your point, it seems reasonable that if you put one white marble and 9 black marbles in each of five buckets that the odds of drawing the white marble should be the same from each bucket, and from the total of each of the buckets just as if they were all dumped in one bucket - 5:50 or 10%. 

However that isn't the case.  Why?  Because your odds of winning at the first bucket are 10%.  But wait - you aren't done, you get to keep playing four more times so your odds of winning increase.  Yes its 10% per bucket but there is actually a 41% chance you will draw a white marble overall from five buckets.

willys has it right. The odds stack a bit but not to the extent of just adding together. My other post wasn't quite correct. Doesn't change my opinion tho. I still say one oil or deer/elk. And one choice each. 

[BULLBLASTER]

IT'S.  A.  LOTTERY.

You are not guaranteed a tag!  bummer you don't draw, but you have the opportunity every year!

[shanevg]

Shane - I get your point, it seems reasonable that if you put one white marble and 9 black marbles in each of five buckets that the odds of drawing the white marble should be the same from each bucket, and from the total of each of the buckets just as if they were all dumped in one bucket - 5:50 or 10%. 

However that isn't the case.  Why?  Because your odds of winning at the first bucket are 10%.  But wait - you aren't done, you get to keep playing four more times so your odds of winning increase.  Yes its 10% per bucket but there is actually a 41% chance you will draw a white marble overall from five buckets.

willys has it right. The odds stack a bit but not to the extent of just adding together. My other post wasn't quite correct. Doesn't change my opinion tho. I still say one oil or deer/elk. And one choice each. 

Willy would be partially right if all the pots were added together into one giant pot.  You would have 5 marbles out of 50 (10% draw odds.)  If the first marble picked is a black marble, you would then have 5/49 (10.2% draw odds).  If the second marble picked is also black you would now have 5/48 (10.42% draw odds).  If the third marble picked is also black you would now have 5/47 (10.64% draw odds.)  If the fourth marble picked is also black, you would now have 5/46 (10.87% draw odds). 

In no situation can you create 41% draw odds with 5 out of 50 marbles unless you eliminate 39 of the black marbles altogether giving you 5/11 (45.45% draw odds.) 

But the 5 pots are not all added together.  They are mutually exclusive.  The drawing results in pot one have no impact in the drawing results in pot 2.  So you have a 10% chance of drawing in pot 1.  Whether you draw or don't draw does not change the fact that you still have a 10% chance of drawing again in pot 2. 

[NoBark]

Gotta go with Shane on this one.   Pot 1 has ) impact on the others and Stats don't add as you go.  you're stuck with 1:10 for every single pot even if there were 100 pots.

[Stein]

Let's just do the map.  We have 10 hunters, each of them with 1 marble.  Each hunter puts a marble in each of the pots.  That gives you five pots each with 10 marbles (1 white, 9 black.)  That means 5 white marbles, 45 black marbles.  That means 5:50 chance of drawing a white marble.  5/50 = 1:10.

Man, I'll try one more time.  Your math is simply wrong.

10 guys, 5 pots, each enters every pot.  Draw pot 1, you have a 10% chance.  Draw pot 2, you have a 10% chance. ....  .... Draw pot 10, you have a 10% chance.  Add them all up and you have a 50% chance of drawing at least once.  You ran the math for dumping all marbles into one pot and drawing once.  Totally different scenario.

According to your math, if you had 1,000,000 pots each with 10 names, the chance of getting drawn from any of the pots would be 10%!?  It is simply not mathematically correct the way you are calculating the odds.


Back to the goat tags, there are 18 regular tags and 20,440 people applied (2015).  Say you trim that by 80% if you have to pick one of 5.  You then would have 4088 apply for the same 18 tags.  Your odds would go from 0.09% to 0.44% each year.  Again, I hold that doesn't move the needle even if you ignore you had to give up a chance at the other 4 tags for your entire life.

[Magnum_Willys]

Gotta go with Shane on this one.   Pot 1 has ) impact on the others and Stats don't add as you go.  you're stuck with 1:10 for every single pot even if there were 100 pots.

Assume Two guys - 100 pots.  First guy gets one chance.  Second guy gets to pick from each of the 100 pots.  You think both guys have same chance of drawing a white marble ?

( Its just the probablility formula:   percent odds of losing on one bucket raised to the power of number of buckets equals total odds of losing overall.  i.e.   90% to the 5th power = 59% chance losing.  100-59% = 41% chance of winning overall) 

[Stein]

Gotta go with Shane on this one.   Pot 1 has ) impact on the others and Stats don't add as you go.  you're stuck with 1:10 for every single pot even if there were 100 pots.

So, if you flip a coin 1,000,000 times, the odds of coming up with at least one tail in any of those flips is only 50%?  The odds absolutely add as you go, if not, the odds of getting a tails any time in a billion flips would still be 50%.

You guys are forgetting about all the other draws.  If you draw in only one, you give up four other draws.  Your odds for the one go up and the odds for the other 4 go to zero.  On average, you haven't improved your odds of drawing a tag.

[WAcoueshunter]

If the aggregate of 10% draw odds five times over are still just 10% in total, why do I buy more than 1 app, or apply in more than one State?  Why would I spend more money if my aggregate odds of drawing a tag somewhere (anywhere) don't increase with each successive draw I enter?

No one is questioning that they are mutually exclusive.  My draw here in WA has no effect on my odds in Montana.  But I have much better total odds of drawing a single tag anywhere in any given year if I'm entered in 25 draws versus just one. 

Here's another way to look at it.  Let's again say I just want a single tag, don't care which one.  First draw is goat, odds are 1:100.  Second draw is a second deer tag on Decatur Island, and there are more tags available than applicants, meaning my odds are 100%.  So what are my odds of drawing a single tag between the two of them?  Don't the odds in the second draw impact the aggregate odds of all my applications when you combine them together? 

[shanevg]

Gotta go with Shane on this one.   Pot 1 has ) impact on the others and Stats don't add as you go.  you're stuck with 1:10 for every single pot even if there were 100 pots.

So, if you flip a coin 1,000,000 times, the odds of coming up with at least one tail in any of those flips is only 50%?  The odds absolutely add as you go, if not, the odds of getting a tails any time in a billion flips would still be 50%.

You guys are forgetting about all the other draws.  If you draw in only one, you give up four other draws.  Your odds for the one go up and the odds for the other 4 go to zero.  On average, you haven't improved your odds of drawing a tag.

Gotta go with Shane on this one.   Pot 1 has ) impact on the others and Stats don't add as you go.  you're stuck with 1:10 for every single pot even if there were 100 pots.

Assume Two guys - 100 pots.  First guy gets one chance.  Second guy gets to pick from each of the 100 pots.  You think both guys have same chance of drawing a white marble ?

( Its just the probablility formula:   percent odds of losing on one bucket raised to the power of number of buckets equals total odds of losing overall.  i.e.   90% to the 5th power = 59% chance losing.  100-59% = 41% chance of winning overall) 

You are both right of course the odds of the same event happening 5 times in a row are not the same as that event happening one time.  That is the problem with using small numbers to simplify something that happens with big numbers. 

In the 10 marbles in one pot scenario, the chance of drawing a black marble in pot 1 is 90%.  Same for pots 2-5.  But the odds of having the same result (a black marble) on all 5 instances is 90% to the fifth power or 59%.  (No I see where you go the 41% chance we draw a white marble from.) 

Even in that instance, my scenario of choosing a single pot is better for you as each pot would only have 2 marbles.  The pot with your white marble would have 1 black and 1 white marble.  Ultimately you get a 9% swing by being forced to choose a pot as opposed to allowing everyone to play all 5 pots.

Let's just do the math.  We have 10 hunters, each of them with 1 marble.  Each hunter puts a marble in each of the pots.  That gives you five pots each with 10 marbles (1 white, 9 black.)  That means 5 white marbles, 45 black marbles.  That means 5:50 chance of drawing a white marble.  5/50 = 1:10.

Now make everyone choose which pot to put their marble in.  Hunter A&B put their marbles in pot 1.  Hunters C&D in pot 2.  Hunters E&F in pot 3.  Hunters G&H in pot 4.  You and hunter I in pot 5.  Even though there is only 1 white marble out of 10 total marbles, each pot only has 2 marbles.  You no longer care what happens in pots 1-4, you only care about pot 5 where there is 1 white marble and 1 black.  You have a 1:2 odd of getting drawn as opposed to a 5/50 odd in the current system.

The problem is we aren't dealing with 10% odds of getting drawn, we are dealing with 0.01% odds (or worse) of getting drawn.  As the numbers get bigger, the advantage of fewer applicants is exponentially larger since we are no longer asking "what are the chances that the 90% probability happens 5 times in a row?  We are asking: "what are the chances that the 99.99% probability happens 5 times in a row?"   The end result is even more dramatic in the statistical advantage to every individual by limiting the number of pots.