how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[bobcat]

Like has already been said- if the number of applicants and the number of tags stays the same, the odds will stay the same, no matter how you manipulate the process.
 
One of the only things I've seen mentioned that would work is to increase the cost. If it was $100 to apply, instead of $13.70, I guarantee that wouid decrease the number of applicants.

[shanevg]

Like has already been said- if the number of applicants and the number of tags stays the same, the odds will stay the same, no matter how you manipulate the process.

I agree entirely.  Popes proposal would reduce the number of applicants by 80% (by not allowing each hunter to apply 5 times) and keep the tag numbers the same.

[Curly]

On the bright side    the number of hunters in the state is declining.  Access is getting more difficult and hunters are giving up on this state and going out of state and I believe new hunter recruitment is lowering...........so there should be less and less competition for the limited permits and people drop out (or don't get in) of the system. 

[WAcoueshunter]

Like has already been said- if the number of applicants and the number of tags stays the same, the odds will stay the same, no matter how you manipulate the process.

I agree entirely.  Popes proposal would reduce the number of applicants by 80% (by not allowing each hunter to apply 5 times) and keep the tag numbers the same.

For one species, that is true.  You get better odds for one species, and zero odds for the rest.  Works great for guys that have already drawn one or two OILs and/or those guys that are single species focused. 

Increased odds for some come out of someone else's pocket, it's a zero sum game. 

[BULLBLASTER]

Like has already been said- if the number of applicants and the number of tags stays the same, the odds will stay the same, no matter how you manipulate the process.

I agree entirely.  Popes proposal would reduce the number of applicants by 80% (by not allowing each hunter to apply 5 times) and keep the tag numbers the same.

For one species, that is true.  You get better odds for one species, and zero odds for the rest.  Works great for guys that have already drawn one or two OILs and/or those guys that are single species focused. 

Increased odds for some come out of someone else's pocket, it's a zero sum game.

thats the point. Increase odds for what a person really wants to hunt. I would most likely stick with deer and elk in WA until I draw and kill a good bull elk. Then re evaluate. Only oil I really care about is moose but I still apply for and worsen everyone's odds in sheep and goat because I can. Thus taking chances away from guys that really want sheep and goat.

[trophyhunt]

Like has already been said- if the number of applicants and the number of tags stays the same, the odds will stay the same, no matter how you manipulate the process.

I agree entirely.  Popes proposal would reduce the number of applicants by 80% (by not allowing each hunter to apply 5 times) and keep the tag numbers the same.

For one species, that is true.  You get better odds for one species, and zero odds for the rest.  Works great for guys that have already drawn one or two OILs and/or those guys that are single species focused. 

Increased odds for some come out of someone else's pocket, it's a zero sum game.

thats the point. Increase odds for what a person really wants to hunt. I would most likely stick with deer and elk in WA until I draw and kill a good bull elk. Then re evaluate. Only oil I really care about is moose but I still apply for and worsen everyone's odds in sheep and goat because I can. Thus taking chances away from guys that really want sheep and goat.

BOOM!!!!  Exactly!

[Stein]

OK, my last, final, last try at this.

10,000 hunters.  Scenario A is pick one bucket and Scenario B is enter all 5 drawings.  Assume even spread in Scenario A (2,000 per bucket)

Scenario A is easy, you enter your bucket where there are 2,000 total names.  You have 1/2,000 chance of drawing which is .05%.

In Scenario B, you have your name in each of five buckets with each bucket having 10,000 names.  There are five potential outcomes:

You win 0 tags
You win 1 tag
You win 2 tags
You win 3 tags
You win 4 tags
You win 5 tags

The chance of winning zero tags is pretty easy to calculate, you have to lose draw 1, then lose draw 2, then lose draw 3, then lose draw 4, then lose draw 5 (something I have expertise in).  The odds of this are 9,999/10,000^5, everyone should agree here.  So, you have 99.95% chance of losing all 5 draws.

Then, it is straight forward to see that if you don't lose every draw, you have won at least one.  So, 1-99.95% = 0.05% chance of winning at least one draw.  Same odds of winning with the one bucket draw.

Make it even simpler, there are 5 tags / 10,000 hunters = 0.05% will draw.

[WAcoueshunter]

I do think there's some merit to giving the tags to those that want them most.  Actually, not all that different than what we had before all the categories and you had to choose between holding out for a bull tag or drawing a cow tag.  Just taking that one step further, and forcing you to pick between species too.  That said, I don't like changing the rules midstream.

Sure would be interesting to see how that plays out initially, and how it might change over time.  Sheep are the most expensive to get elsewhere, my guess is those odds would still be very long.  Goat odds would be better, but still long enough with the limited number of tags that you'd still be lucky to draw in your lifetime. I think most folks would quickly give up deer, there's enough good OTC and out of state options.  Probably enough moose tags that I bet you could count on drawing a moose at some point. 

[Stein]

Put another way, same 10,000 hunters:

Enter all draws scenario:

Chance of winning Moose Draw: 1/10,000 = 0.01%
Chance of winning Goat Draw: 1/10,000 = 0.01%
Chance of winning Sheep Draw: 1/10,000 = 0.01%
Chance of winning Elk Draw: 1/10,000 = 0.01%
Chance of winning Deer Draw: 1/10,000 = 0.01%

Enter one draw scenario:

Chance of Winning Moose Draw: 1/2,000 = 0.05%

So, it's only good if you really want a moose and don't care about the rest.

But, the odds aren't equal.  Here is a more realistic scenario.  Say there are three draws, Moose with a 1% chance, Bull with a 5% chance and a doe tag with a 30% chance.

If you enter all three:

Moose 1%
Bull 5%
Doe 30%
Odds of drawing at least 1 would be 34% (using my previous post method)

Say you have to pick one and it evenly splits.  Here would be your odds (again, you only get one of the tags below):

Moose 5%
Bull 25%
Doe 100%

Your odds would go up if you entered the doe draw, but down if you entered either of the two harder to draw ones.  It is fairly safe to say if this happened, it wouldn't split evenly.  Say the split for applications is 50% doe, 35% bull and 15% moose, then the odds for each group would be:

Moose 7%
Bull 14%
Doe 60%

Again, similar result.  This method works better for those that have a preference on what tag they draw (I think most of us do).  The moose guy would be happy his odds went up 700% and I'm happy my doe odds doubled.  It isn't a free lunch though, we both give up any chance of drawing the other two tags.

[Karl Blanchard]

I always get a kick out of the value that folks put into points in this state and talk about how invested they are.  Your points do almost nothing to increase draw odds in the oil and quality catagories.  Take a guy who has applied for moose, sheep, and goat for the last 20 years.  He has invested roughly $560 dollars towards all three.  Spread that out over 20 years and it costs you a Miner's burger, fry, and shake annually.  I'm all for getting while the getting is good.  I'd gladly write off my 7 cents a day for some drastically better opportunity at a truly once in a lifetime opportunity like an oil tag in this state.  Take my elk and deer points and throw them in the trash even.  Lots of otc opportunities throughout the state and the west for those species.  Like has been said before, gotta prioritize whats most important.  Sure lots of guys would be pissed, but they aren't gonna just say screw hunting i'm done after this.  We will do like we always do when fur and feathers puts it to us......complain on huntwa and continue to pay up

[724wd]

We will do like we always do when fur and feathers puts it to us......complain on huntwa and continue to pay up

I always wonder if the same people are urinated and moaning because they haven't won the Powerball?  I mean, they REALLY want it, and have bought tickets forever.  Surely they DESERVE to win, right?   

[huntnphool]

We will do like we always do when fur and feathers puts it to us......complain on huntwa and continue to pay up

I always wonder if the same people are urinated and moaning because they haven't won the Powerball?  I mean, they REALLY want it, and have bought tickets forever.  Surely they DESERVE to win, right?   

 They need to increase the cost of the tickets to eliminate participants.

[Bushcraft]

For starters, WDFW isn’t going to change anything if it decreases their special permit cash cow.

I would love to see the system modified such that anyone can buy a point for each of the existing categories, but only apply for one specific permit.  Nearly everyone would continue to buy hamburger-cost points for each species, but it dramatically increases the odds for those that REALLY want to hunt a particular species in a particular unit with a particular weapon.  People would still pay to play (or pay to eventually play vis a vis points), WDFW would get their money, and the people that really want to go after a particular species in a particular area with a particular weapon aren’t competing odds-wise for somebody that – until they are actually confronted with an OIL or quality draw tag, really don’t give a rat’s backside.

For example, it’s no great secret that I want to go goat hunting, and I want the opportunity to go after a nice representative billy here in WA bad enough to make it a priority in my hunting life, and I devote a considerable amount of time, money and energy towards the conservation of their species (and all the others), and I try to stay in shape enough year around to go after them thereby leaving nothing to chance should I get the green light.  I think about that opportunity every single day. Contrast that level of desire and interest with a couch potato lard-ass who doesn’t do a damn thing for mountain goats (or any other species for that matter!) but blindly throws his $6 in the kitty every year. If he does win a special permit for a goat he’s just going to stagger out to the easiest vantage and gut shoot the first nanny he sees off a cliff, thereby screwing the rest of us that want more goat tags for years to come.  From my perspective, the lard-ass that doesn't really care up until the point that he wins the OIL $6 draw absolutely doesn’t deserve it.  Myself and other guys absolutely deserve a chance.

WDFW needs to put a system in place to award those that really want it vs. those that don’t.  Heck, I’d be all for an additional layer of points granted to those that step up and contribute their time and energy to species centric conservation projects.  That way, more people would be incentivized to get involved do something constructive for our wild places and wild things.  We are incentivized to turn in poachers after the damage is done and animals are dead, why not incentivize people to take an active part in growing our living big game populations?

Regards,

Allen

[trophyhunt]

For starters, WDFW isn’t going to change anything if it decreases their special permit cash cow.

I would love to see the system modified such that anyone can buy a point for each of the existing categories, but only apply for one specific permit.  Nearly everyone would continue to buy hamburger-cost points for each species, but it dramatically increases the odds for those that REALLY want to hunt a particular species in a particular unit with a particular weapon.  People would still pay to play (or pay to eventually play vis a vis points), WDFW would get their money, and the people that really want to go after a particular species in a particular area with a particular weapon aren’t competing odds-wise for somebody that – until they are actually confronted with an OIL or quality draw tag, really don’t give a rat’s backside.

For example, it’s no great secret that I want to go goat hunting, and I want the opportunity to go after a nice representative billy here in WA bad enough to make it a priority in my hunting life, and I devote a considerable amount of time, money and energy towards the conservation of their species (and all the others), and I try to stay in shape enough year around to go after them thereby leaving nothing to chance should I get the green light.  I think about that opportunity every single day. Contrast that level of desire and interest with a couch potato lard-ass who doesn’t do a damn thing for mountain goats (or any other species for that matter!) but blindly throws his $6 in the kitty every year. If he does win a special permit for a goat he’s just going to stagger out to the easiest vantage and gut shoot the first nanny he sees off a cliff, thereby screwing the rest of us that want more goat tags for years to come.  From my perspective, the lard-ass that doesn't really care up until the point that he wins the OIL $6 draw absolutely doesn’t deserve it.  Myself and other guys absolutely deserve a chance.

WDFW needs to put a system in place to award those that really want it vs. those that don’t.  Heck, I’d be all for an additional layer of points granted to those that step up and contribute their time and energy to species centric conservation projects.  That way, more people would be incentivized to get involved do something constructive for our wild places and wild things.

Regards,

Allen

excluding your volunteer points, this is basically what Shawn is proposing.  Except he's saying you can pick the oil draws or the deer/elk draws.  I like your idea of narrowing it down to a single choice in the oil tags!

[idahohuntr]

From my perspective, the lard-ass that doesn't really care up until the point that he wins the OIL $6 draw absolutely doesn’t deserve it.  Myself and other guys absolutely deserve a chance.

Perhaps you could send wdfw a list of people you feel deserve OIL tags...everybody needs something to wipe their backside with.


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