how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[Katmai Guy]

Sorry, not yelling, Caps lock was on.

[trophyhunt]

THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN COVERED IN SOME OF THE PAST PAGES BUT DON'T HAVE TIME TO LOOK.  WHAT IF INSTEAD OF THE ONE LOW NUMBER PER PERSON, USE THE NUMBER OF SQUARED POINTS TO BE DRAWN FOR THE PERMIT?

WHAT! WE CANNOT HEAR YOU!     I like that idea a lot and I think it would make way more sense then using a ridiculous amount to draw from.   

[Bullkllr]

THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN COVERED IN SOME OF THE PAST PAGES BUT DON'T HAVE TIME TO LOOK.  WHAT IF INSTEAD OF THE ONE LOW NUMBER PER PERSON, USE THE NUMBER OF SQUARED POINTS TO BE DRAWN FOR THE PERMIT?

That is already happening. Points are squared, so 10 points = 100 chances in the hat. 100 random numbers are generated, but only the lowest of those numbers is used for tag allotment (it's the only one that would matter). More points = more chance for a low number.

[bobcat]

THIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN COVERED IN SOME OF THE PAST PAGES BUT DON'T HAVE TIME TO LOOK.  WHAT IF INSTEAD OF THE ONE LOW NUMBER PER PERSON, USE THE NUMBER OF SQUARED POINTS TO BE DRAWN FOR THE PERMIT?

WHAT! WE CANNOT HEAR YOU!     I like that idea a lot and I think it would make way more sense then using a ridiculous amount to draw from.   

What are you talking about? The points ARE squared. That's how it works. So someone with 20 points has 400 chances of getting a low number and a person with 1 point only has 1 chance.

[Katmai Guy]

LOL, sorry, was at work and caps lock was on. I thought i was asking a question on the OIL draw odds post.  Bobcat has your aneurysm shrunk yet?
   

[Slow-1]

I can hunt deer and elk every year, maybe not monster bulls behind every tree but the potential is still there, but I can't hunt the "big three" with out a tag. I want a sheep tag so bad. I used to mow lawns and send in the money when you had to pay up front (my dad would look at me like I was from another planet doing that).
30+ years with out drawing changes a point of view.

So how about this:
$13 per application x 5 = $65 you purchase one application for 65$ that has one hunt slot/number for what every you want and, 4 ghost point slots for what every you want.

I also believe the worst your math skills the more you think your going to draw a quality tag or a OIL tag.

Another thought if a tags has more that a one in a hundred chance (IE 2000 guys put in for 15 tags) it should be a OIL too.

[popeshawnpaul]

"The system is fine, the system is fair, we can't make it better ".      Read this slow and try to absorb the info.   Ok, it actually can be improved    Have people choose between putting in for deer/elk special permits OR OIL permits, still let them buy ghost points if they choose to!!!  Those guys that just put in for OIL because they can, will most likely just buy points and put in for deer/elk.     so, it can be improved because thousands of apps will drop from the oil draws.  Read it again slowly please......   Now of course this doesn't mean everyone will Draw the tag they want, it will still be tough but it will be better odds.   No brainier guys.......... Now go back and read it again! 

I can read it slowly, or backwards, or in pig latin...I still don't see how it's a no brainer.  You're forcing those who have been patient and built significant points in all categories to choose.  They didn't get lucky along the way, they didn't cave and apply for something middle of the road.  They stuck it out across the board for 20+ years.  Right now, they CAN expect to draw a high end deer and/or elk tag at some point, AND still have a decent chance at an OIL.  But the change would be forcing them to choose a deer/elk tag in exchange for 0% chance at OIL.  Or keep their OIL dreams, but give up that eventual Dayton or Entiat tag.  More or less, all to benefit the single species guys and guys who already cashed in their deer/elk quality points (for full disclosure, I'm in the latter camp).  That may be an okay trade off on the whole, but no question there will be winners and losers.  Just no way to change mid-stream and make things fair for everyone.

There would be winners and losers under a modified system.  The winners would be those that have higher odds of drawing the tags they want and the losers would be those that inadvertently got lucky and drew a tag they didn't value as much as the others.  It is the reason why odds are so good in Idaho.  If not this, then we might as well resign ourselves that most of us will never draw an oil and we will draw a quality bull/deer every 20-30 years.  Awesome...

[724wd]

we might as well resign ourselves that most of us will never draw an oil and we will draw a quality bull/deer every 20-30 years.  Awesome...

IT'S.  A.  LOTTERY. 

YOU.  ARE.  NOT.  GUARANTEED.  A.  TAG.

 

[trophyhunt]

"The system is fine, the system is fair, we can't make it better ".      Read this slow and try to absorb the info.   Ok, it actually can be improved    Have people choose between putting in for deer/elk special permits OR OIL permits, still let them buy ghost points if they choose to!!!  Those guys that just put in for OIL because they can, will most likely just buy points and put in for deer/elk.     so, it can be improved because thousands of apps will drop from the oil draws.  Read it again slowly please......   Now of course this doesn't mean everyone will Draw the tag they want, it will still be tough but it will be better odds.   No brainier guys.......... Now go back and read it again! 

I can read it slowly, or backwards, or in pig latin...I still don't see how it's a no brainer.  You're forcing those who have been patient and built significant points in all categories to choose.  They didn't get lucky along the way, they didn't cave and apply for something middle of the road.  They stuck it out across the board for 20+ years.  Right now, they CAN expect to draw a high end deer and/or elk tag at some point, AND still have a decent chance at an OIL.  But the change would be forcing them to choose a deer/elk tag in exchange for 0% chance at OIL.  Or keep their OIL dreams, but give up that eventual Dayton or Entiat tag.  More or less, all to benefit the single species guys and guys who already cashed in their deer/elk quality points (for full disclosure, I'm in the latter camp).  That may be an okay trade off on the whole, but no question there will be winners and losers.  Just no way to change mid-stream and make things fair for everyone.

There would be winners and losers under a modified system.  The winners would be those that have higher odds of drawing the tags they want and the losers would be those that inadvertently got lucky and drew a tag they didn't value as much as the others.  It is the reason why odds are so good in Idaho.  If not this, then we might as well resign ourselves that most of us will never draw an oil and we will draw a quality bull/deer every 20-30 years.  Awesome...

I really hope you take your plan to the right people Shawn, let's get those odd's up a bit more!  Do you have any plans on going to the wdfw board about this soon?  Please do.

[popeshawnpaul]

we might as well resign ourselves that most of us will never draw an oil and we will draw a quality bull/deer every 20-30 years.  Awesome...

IT'S.  A.  LOTTERY. 

YOU.  ARE.  NOT.  GUARANTEED.  A.  TAG.

 

Jeez condescending... we are not stupid.  I never said anyone is guaranteed a tag and we know it's a lottery.  I venture I'm more educated on the subject than you are so beat your horse elsewhere.  We are talking about bettering the odds in the "lottery".  If you can up your odds, then statistically one might be expected to draw at some point unless they are unlucky.  What I said was if you have 20-30 points under our current system, your odds are good to draw a quality elk/deer tag within that time period.  Yes, it's still a "lottery" if that makes you happy and nobody is guaranteed a tad captain obvious.  Yes, someone could have great odds and not draw or you could draw.  Some don't care the odds and buy Powerball tickets despite the one in a trillion chance of winning.  Some of us like to know the odds before investing in a "lottery" ticket.  Some on here don't think it matters if you have 1 or 20 points even though that flies in the face of statistical logic.

[trophyhunt]

 

[notsosneaky]

"The system is fine, the system is fair, we can't make it better ".      Read this slow and try to absorb the info.   Ok, it actually can be improved    Have people choose between putting in for deer/elk special permits OR OIL permits, still let them buy ghost points if they choose to!!!  Those guys that just put in for OIL because they can, will most likely just buy points and put in for deer/elk.     so, it can be improved because thousands of apps will drop from the oil draws.  Read it again slowly please......   Now of course this doesn't mean everyone will Draw the tag they want, it will still be tough but it will be better odds.   No brainier guys.......... Now go back and read it again! 

No
I'd rather have a .0013 percent chance against your .003, than have no chance so you can have a .007 chance.

[trophyhunt]

"The system is fine, the system is fair, we can't make it better ".      Read this slow and try to absorb the info.   Ok, it actually can be improved    Have people choose between putting in for deer/elk special permits OR OIL permits, still let them buy ghost points if they choose to!!!  Those guys that just put in for OIL because they can, will most likely just buy points and put in for deer/elk.     so, it can be improved because thousands of apps will drop from the oil draws.  Read it again slowly please......   Now of course this doesn't mean everyone will Draw the tag they want, it will still be tough but it will be better odds.   No brainier guys.......... Now go back and read it again! 

No
I'd rather have a .0013 percent chance against your .003, than have no chance so you can have a .007 chance.

We don't know what the odds would be if you had to choose between putting in for oil or deer/elk.  But I'd be willing to bet half the number of applications drop if not more!  Again, read it slowly and you should start to see how your odds could go way up. 

[724wd]

I venture I'm more educated on the subject than you are so beat your horse elsewhere. 

You don't know a thing about me, hotshot.  You all keep stroking that horse 

[WAcoueshunter]

There would be winners and losers under a modified system.  The winners would be those that have higher odds of drawing the tags they want and the losers would be those that inadvertently got lucky and drew a tag they didn't value as much as the others. 

Yes, those are some of the winners and losers.  Other winners would be those that have already drawn quality elk, deer and/or an OIL or two.  Like they need more help.  Other losers include the most fanatical huntaholic who happens to be unlucky and sitting on max points in all categories.  Helping your pool to the detriment of those you want to leave behind will have collateral damage. 

It is the reason why odds are so good in Idaho. 

Is it?  Or is it because Idaho hands out 9x the antlered moose tags, 4x the ram tags and 2x the goat tags, with 1/4 the population?

We all understand that odds for a single species go up if everyone can only apply for one.  But the point is, the same number of total OIL applicants for the same number of total OIL tags doesn't affect your overall OIL odds.  It just focuses your overall odds into a single species.  Someone applying for sheep in Idaho doesn't have very good (zero) sheep odds.  And Idaho doesn't have 20 years of built up points to complicate the winners and losers.