how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[trophyhunt]

What I don't like about it is making people choose between OIL or deer/elk.  I don't think it's fair that someone should have to give up their OIL hopes so a single species guy can have better goat odds. 

If we just wanted to change OIL, I could support being able to accumulate your points into one species.  As has been hashed out at length, going from three species to one doesn't affect your overall draw odds.  Same number of total tags, same number of total applicants.  But what if you could take your 20 moose points (400 names in the hat) and 20 goat points (400 names in the hat), and apply those in the sheep draw with your 20 sheep points, giving you 1200 total names in the hat for sheep.  You shouldn't get to square them, just 400 + 400 + 400.  Or, you could stay in all three draws, or choose two of the three.  You choose how to use your OIL points.  Revenue stays the same; guys that are hell bent on a single species are more likely to draw; guys with points in all three still get to use them; guys that have already drawn OIL will have fewer total points and lower odds (which seems fair), etc.

Thats an idea I've wanted done for years, I think you should be able to chose how many points you want from your balance to the tag your applying for.  Example, I don't think the water shed tag in the blues is worth my 21 points, but if I could put 10 points one year toward that tag and 11 the next year, I'd do that for sure!  I hear what your saying.

[huntnphool]

Our thoughts are not to change the entire system, just an idea to improve draw odds for oil tags, nothing else.

 $250-$500 per application would have the same result.

I bet 75% of those who apply for oil tags would drop out and only apply for points, that's a large number of apps leaving the pool.

I agree, but then the state would lose lots of money in app fee's from people not picking up just points.  Pope's way would satisfy the state and increase the odds.  But I agree that option would definitely make sense.

 The significant increase in individual app fees would more than make up for anyone dropping out at $6/ea.

[WAcoueshunter]

Our thoughts are not to change the entire system, just an idea to improve draw odds for oil tags, nothing else.

 $250-$500 per application would have the same result.

I bet 75% of those who apply for oil tags would drop out and only apply for points, that's a large number of apps leaving the pool.

I agree, but then the state would lose lots of money in app fee's from people not picking up just points.  Pope's way would satisfy the state and increase the odds.  But I agree that option would definitely make sense.

 The significant increase in individual app fees would more than make up for anyone dropping out at $6/ea.

Can you imagine!

Pay 100x the current application fee, you'd need only 1% the number of applicants to stay revenue neutral.  There's something like 50,000 OIL applications currently, so we'd only need 500 to pony up.  About 125 OIL tags, pretty sure we'd get there easy enough with 1:4 odds!  With odds like that, we could probably charge $2K or more for out of state applicants.

[warthog]

if y'all can convince the state to grant me a sheep tag next year, i'll promise to not apply for the moose or goat oil tags for the rest of my life.  that would immensely up the odds for everyone else.

of course i 'll still purchase a raffle tag or 2.

i just don't want to be selfish !

[Toad]

Seems to me after reading a large number of posts, people want to price the common man out of hunting altogether. SMH
 

[KDB]

I agree that the OIL draw system  needs a fix , but the sportsman are going to have to loose something if they want to improve odds of being drawn. I would be in favor of increasing the application fee by 3x. You could only apply for 1 OIL species and you could not apply for "points only" for the other OIL species.

[WAcoueshunter]

Seems to me after reading a large number of posts, people want to price the common man out of hunting altogether. SMH

I don't think anyone is actually promoting this, just citing it as one way to increase odds.  There's only so many variables to increase odds, and price is one of them. 

[msg]

Hunting is already an expensive sport or passion, whatever you want to call it. If you keep squeezing the common man, the young family man. Pretty soon he quits buying his wife a license and tag. He gives up teaching his children to hunt because he cannot afford it. In a generation or two the  numbers between hunters and ant-hunters becomes even more lopsided. Plays right into the hands of PETA and all of the other groups that believe hunting is not ethical.

[popeshawnpaul]

I don't know we want to price out people.  I would like to run the numbers and see what the odds would be if the system were tweaked.  For all those that are happy with the one in a million odds, that's fine but I can tell you that we look at tweaking the draw system nearly every year on the GMAC.  The number of complaints about the odds and way it is run is constant and voluminous.  Just like how baiting comes up every year by a very vocal percentage of hunters.  Sooner or later, experience tells me they will do something to address the complaints and it may be something as disastrous as the last few times it was tweaked.

I would simply like to run the numbers and see what the odds are for each species.  We could then sit down and see if this is something that should be pursued or not.  If the odds don't significantly go up, then there would be no benefits to a change.  I'm already seeing in the numbers that the majority of people apply for elk and then deer.  There is a large portion that does not apply for OIL which lessens the odds one might expect to have if the system were tweaked.  Once I have the numbers ready, we can start to have an intelligent conversation about the subject without conjecture or speculation. 

[Falcon]

I don't know we want to price out people.  I would like to run the numbers and see what the odds would be if the system were tweaked.  For all those that are happy with the one in a million odds, that's fine but I can tell you that we look at tweaking the draw system nearly every year on the GMAC.  The number of complaints about the odds and way it is run is constant and voluminous.  Just like how baiting comes up every year by a very vocal percentage of hunters.  Sooner or later, experience tells me they will do something to address the complaints and it may be something as disastrous as the last few times it was tweaked.

I would simply like to run the numbers and see what the odds are for each species.  We could then sit down and see if this is something that should be pursued or not.  If the odds don't significantly go up, then there would be no benefits to a change.  I'm already seeing in the numbers that the majority of people apply for elk and then deer.  There is a large portion that does not apply for OIL which lessens the odds one might expect to have if the system were tweaked.  Once I have the numbers ready, we can start to have an intelligent conversation about the subject without conjecture or speculation.

 

I'm ready to see the numbers.  Lots of options to consider and nothing to lose...     win win

[stw]

I can say is by raising the price so people can't afford to put in anymore for tags to better persons odds  .I can see a class action lawsuit for all the people who puttin in for 10 or 20 years  and now can't afford it  and  pricing all of them out of the draw. Just saying raising the price is just wrong.

[trophyhunt]

I don't know we want to price out people.  I would like to run the numbers and see what the odds would be if the system were tweaked.  For all those that are happy with the one in a million odds, that's fine but I can tell you that we look at tweaking the draw system nearly every year on the GMAC.  The number of complaints about the odds and way it is run is constant and voluminous.  Just like how baiting comes up every year by a very vocal percentage of hunters.  Sooner or later, experience tells me they will do something to address the complaints and it may be something as disastrous as the last few times it was tweaked.

I would simply like to run the numbers and see what the odds are for each species.  We could then sit down and see if this is something that should be pursued or not.  If the odds don't significantly go up, then there would be no benefits to a change.  I'm already seeing in the numbers that the majority of people apply for elk and then deer.  There is a large portion that does not apply for OIL which lessens the odds one might expect to have if the system were tweaked.  Once I have the numbers ready, we can start to have an intelligent conversation about the subject without conjecture or speculation.

 

I'm ready to see the numbers.  Lots of options to consider and nothing to lose...     win win

:yeah:x2.  I'm guessing the odds go up quite a bit.  And raising the prices doesn't have to be done. 

[Jpmiller]

I'm not 100 percent sure I am following. Is the main gripe that people aren't drawing with a lot of points that may never draw and don't like the rules? I may be over simplifying and I apologize if I am missing something but I don't think the system can or even should be set up so everyone can always draw every tag they want at some point in there life.

[trophyhunt]

I'm not 100 percent sure I am following. Is the main gripe that people aren't drawing with a lot of points that may never draw and don't like the rules? I may be over simplifying and I apologize if I am missing something but I don't think the system can or even should be set up so everyone can always draw every tag they want at some point in there life.

Its not about the guys with the most points thinking they should draw, it's only about improving draw odds.  The idea is, to improve draw odds, period. It's that simple,  and the best way to improve odds is to have people decide whether they want to apply for deer/elk permits or OIL tags.  One or the other, and if they go with deer/elk, they can get points for the OIL. And vise versa

[Jonathan_S]

Seems to me after reading a large number of posts, people want to price the common man out of hunting altogether. SMH

Talking about OIL draws here, not a OTC license