Raffle-ness

[Bushcraft]

I would too.  I'm not going to raise a stink about it, but I did an analysis and found what appears to be a statistical impossibility in what should be a completely random drawing.

Bold statement bushcraft.  Can you explain?

Let me take a stab at explaining it Tbar.

Not all computer derived random number generators are created equal, or all that random.  Like all software, the output is entirely dependent upon the input.  Garbage in, garbage out.

Success percentage anomalies can and do occur with relatively few randomly drawn numbers, but they quickly begin to dissipate and approach normally expected percentages.  For example, if you flip a coin ten times, it's entirely possible and shouldn't be considered all that surprising if perhaps as many as 7, 8 or even 9 of the 10 first flips came up heads.  But, the more you flip the 50/50 coin, the more your heads vs. tails aggregate count will quickly approach 50%.

In this case, I owned approximately twice as many goat raffle tickets as everyone else combined, or 65%.  What's interesting is that my aggregate "successful" draws throughout the computer generated drawing didn't approach that number until exactly 3,106 (or 76%) of the total tickets were drawn.  That is MUCH higher than 1,000...which is the number generally used to establish a large enough sample base to consider something statistically viable.  That is odd.  Not getting close to the 66% after 2,000 is odder still.  Having to draw 3106 tickets to reach the aggregate 65% threshold is totally bizarre IMHO.  Also note the odd consecutive extended decrease (non-draws) occurring between 940ish to 1220ish.  I'm not quite sure what to make of it all but it seems to me that it would take many thousands of Monte Carlo simulations (randomly re-do the entire draw) to generate this bit of strangeness.

One further...I know a guy who purchased half the tickets sold once and he claims the system didn't register a successful draw for him during the first 50 "randomly" generated computer draws. How's that for something that makes you go hmmmmm? 

Given the amount of money everyone in aggregate throws at these raffle drawings, I'd be a strong proponent of going back to a publicly auditable manual drawing of at least the top five tickets per category.  Who knows what sort of coding their outsourced black box is really using?

[Miles]

Just buy more tickets next year.

[Oscar1970]

Clean livin

[Gringo31]

I know that if I dumped a truckload of cash into a system and was playing my odds, upping the buy in to increase my odds...... I'd want to make for certain that everything was on the up and up.  Math should be math.  I wonder if buying 2000 tickets in 100 ticket lots would make a difference.  Granted, I realize it shouldn't, but skimming what Bushcraft said, it makes me wonder.

I'd bet if you asked the right people, you could get some answers.

[Reidus]

Pretty interesting bushcraft!

[emac]

Number of tickets purchased by each winner.  5/13 bought 10 or less tickets.

Blacktail - 10
Mule Deer - 8
Whitetail - 499
E. Elk - 699
W. Elk - 749
Goat - 83
Moose 1 - 1032
Moose 2 - 99
NC Combo - 4
NE Combo - 21
Sheep - 1
SC Combo - 363
3 Deer - 3

Where can you find this info out and how come the se combo isnt on there

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[andersonjk4]

Number of tickets purchased by each winner.  5/13 bought 10 or less tickets.

Blacktail - 10
Mule Deer - 8
Whitetail - 499
E. Elk - 699
W. Elk - 749
Goat - 83
Moose 1 - 1032
Moose 2 - 99
NC Combo - 4
NE Combo - 21
Sheep - 1
SC Combo - 363
3 Deer - 3

Where can you find this info out and how come the se combo isnt on there

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

Here is where I got the info:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/raffles/lookup.html

And the SE Combo winner is not listed on the website.  I didn't realize that until you brought it up.  That is interesting.  I wonder if they are having issues with that drawing or contacting the winner? 

[Ridgerunner]

numbers are very telling, the odds of winning anything with just a ticket or two are virtually nil, gotta pay up if you want to have more than a minuscule chance of winning. 

[Jpmiller]

After seeing those numbers I will take long odds next year over the no odds I had this year. I never entered before but some guys are winning without the investment, might as well be me!