I could be wrong but it looks to me like in 2016 your odds to draw region W as a second choice in the "special" draw would have been about 60%. In the regular draw, no chance. With the higher winter kill this year the quota will likely be lower and I'd guess your odds of drawing as a second choice will probably be much less than last year.
As for the 23-3 license I saved the leftover list from last year so I can check that later, and see if there were leftovers last year. But of course that doesn't mean there will be any this year. If you really want to be assured of getting one deer tag, you might just put in for the 23-3 license as a second choice. Looks like you could even save a couple hundred dollars because you could draw it in the regular draw so there's no need to pay extra for the special.