Free: Contests & Raffles.
With H as a second choice you'd only be in the random draw so your points would be irrelevant and your odds of drawing very low. But yes, if you draw a second choice you don't lose your points.
The 2016-17 winter won't have a big impact on the bucks you're after, I'd apply. That said, between point creep and the reduced NR tags, unfortunately you still probably won't draw.