moose 10 pts or less?

[andrew_in_idaho]

I think the "top points" pool on each of the OIL tags is down to single digits


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[wheels]

thanks

[westside bull]

I'll have 20 points this year. But have had my cousin draw his first ever year putting in. Another year my dad and brother both got drawn and they weren't partners. You just never know when it's your time to get lucky.

Holy cow who does your family know at wdfw??

[Bullkllr]

My dad is one of about 4 people who has put in every year since the point system started and still not drawn(any moose)


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Only 4 people? I think there's a whole lot more people than that who have been applying for moose since the point system started and haven't drawn. I'm thinking maybe more like 4 hundred people.

I thought that data was interesting, so I looked at what they showed for other categories. Across the board, the summaries show top-points applicants as drawing at a very low rate.

But at first glance, some of the numbers don't jibe 100%.
On the summary for antlerless deer, for example, here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016.php (don't now how to post the screen shot) shows 1 unsuccessful applicant with 21 points, another with 20 points, and 3 more with 19 points (all unsuccessful).

While it seems somewhat unlikely to not draw an antlerless deer permit with over 20 points (much less unlikely than for moose, imo), things get confusing when I look at the pfd by-hunt-breakdown of applicants here http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016category_points_antlerlessdeer.pdf
This report lists NO applicants with either 20 or 21 applying for any hunts, and it only lists 1 of the 3 with 19 points as applying unsuccessfully. I looked several times and I don't think I overlooked them.

The summary results for 2nd deer are even more confusing. It shows the overall rate of drawing (all tags divided by all apps) as 1:3.39.  Apps with 1 point drew at a rate of 1:3.87, while the top points apps (>12 pts) drew at a 1:40 rate. This makes no mathematical sense to me.

I'm not saying the results from moose are the same (I will look at that in more detail when I have time), but if it is- something is up  with those discrepancies. There could be a logical reason- like the summary includes points options and has them listed as unsuccessful- or it includes them as individual applicants who applied as a group. Or it could be the numbers are off somehow 

Just thought it was interesting...

[Bob33]

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

[Bullkllr]

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

[andrew_in_idaho]

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

I'm thinking if you don't ultimately draw a tag they count you as unsuccessful in the summary yes.


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[Bob33]

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

[Stein]

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

[Bullkllr]

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense 

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing points only. Someone has 29 points for antlerless elk, and bought another point. In fact, only 1 of the 33 with 20 or more points didn't do points only for antlerless elk (and didn't draw Pine Mtn. Ranch fwiw). Plausible; still seems a bit weird.

[Bob33]

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense 

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing "points only" then.

That is most likely the case. In addition, some applicants with maximum points have a bias. They are applying for the most difficult to draw hunts, and possibly only applying for one hunt choice versus multiple hunts.

[andrew_in_idaho]

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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[Bob33]

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

[andrew_in_idaho]

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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[Bob33]

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat.  Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%.  There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points. 

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew.  This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate


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Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.


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On average, the total number of "names in the hat" for quality hunts increases by about 15% per year. Someone with one point gets 300% more points going from year one to year two, and thus gains ground. Someone with 20 points gets only 10% more points going from year 20 to year 21 (400 to 441), and thus loses ground.