Colockum Spike rule change?

[colockumelk]

Elkaholic, and anyone else that wants to call me a doom and gloom guy.  Here's exactly what I said in that meeting.  All the facts are from the studies and surveys that our WDFW has conducted.  Look at those stats carefully and tell me that the true spike or closing it down for a year would work.  If we closed it down for a year and then went back to general season we'd be in the same boat in three years. 

In the past 5 years the branch bull population in the Colockum has been absolutely decimated.  Currently the branch bull to cow ratio is 5:100.  In 2002 there were 391 branch bulls in the Colockum and as of 2007 there are only 116 branch bulls left.  This is a decline of 70%.  LET ME REITERATE THAT.  That is a decline of 70%.  That is a decline of 14% a year.  If this trend continues by 2011 there wont be any branch bulls left in the Colockum. 

You need to act now, now 3 years from now.  You need to go to permit only now.  The elk need a stimulus package worse than our country does.  There are various reasons why the branch bull population has been decimated.  They are poaching, tribal-hunting, and far too much road access.  Some of these are out of your hands and others will take alot of time and resources to change.  Time that the Colockum elk do not have.  You need to control what you can which is spike recruitment.  You have the power to make things happen now which is what you need to do.

The main problem with the Colockum elk herd is spike recruitment.  In the Colockum the average harvest is 135 per GMU.  In the Yakima herd the average spike harvest per GMU is only 57.  The Colockum has a spike harvest average per GMU of almost 3 times that of the Yakima GMUs.  85% of all yearling bulls are killed every year.  Only 15% of yearling bulls in the Colockum survive their first two years.  In 2005 only 46 spikes made it through the hunting season in the entire Colockum.   

The best course of action is to go to Permit only now, not later.  Do what is right even if it is unpopular.  Sometimes the right choice isn't the popular choice.  Often the popular opinion isn't always an ethical one.  In any case during the surveys over the past year the public favored permit only over the "True Spike" proposition.  So why did you not go to permit only like the public wanted?  For those that oppose this what many people don't realize is that every year in the Colockum 300 or more spikes are harvested by hunters.  If it were permit only this would mean 300 more spikes would survive to become branch antlered bulls every year.  With special permit success rates being about 30% this would mean you could give out 600-900 branch bull permits in the Colockum every year instead of the 6 that were given out last year.

For the sake of the elk in the Colockum please do the right thing.  True Spike might have been a good idea ten years ago but right now the True Spike concept would be too little and too late.


After the meeting I talked to the commissioner.  This is what I said.  I said I WOULD support a closure for one year on three conditions.
1. It would be closed to everyone, licensed hunters, Master-Hunters and Tribal Hunters.
2. After a year of closures they go to permit only and not a general season, because in three years we'd just be right back where we are now. 
3.  They give out at alot more permits based on the model I previously gave which is;  Every year around 400 bull calves are born.  With a 10% natural mortality rate that is 360 spikes that become branch bulls every year.  Special permits typically have about a 30% successrate.  This means that they should give out at least 600 branch bull permits a year.

Oh and for those that think that permit only or closing the unit down is only going to take our rights and give the Yakama's a super hunting unit consider this.

While the Boldt Decision of February 12, 1974 did grant the tribes 50% of all the harvest it did reserve the state's right to

The courts have ruled that state regulation of tribal exercise of off-reservation hunting rights on open and unclaimed land is preempted by the Stevens Treaties, except where state regulation is necessary for conservation purposes

[colockumelk]

found out at the gun club today that WDFW has changed the spike rule to two smooth spikes above the ear in the Colockum. No more 1x2's and so on. Is this true?? Sorry if it has already been posted.
[/quote

 After what I heard in Ellensburg yesterday..I think they might throw that one out. Patheticly there were ony 4 of us that had any comment on this problem. 2 were so gloom and doom that the a commissioner asked if he would be open to closing the area for a year totally ,to which he said yes. They (2 speakers) were for the SP option which I do not want. I'd rather see it closed for a yearYeah but in three years we'd be back where we are now! which unfortunately wouldn't bring in the 3000 plus fees for applying for them even though I would put in for a ghost hunt "any bull" tag to increase the 14 points we already have. When we started putting in for this you had to give up the first weekend of general bull to even get the chance for it. What happend there? Not enough revenue. Let's see...what roads will they close (another option) so that the older and disabled hunters get squeezed into a smaller area.How is physically closing all of the roads that are already closed going to restrict them.  They are not supposed to be there anyways.  I wouldn't want this if it wasn't for all the lazy people out there that drive their ATV's all over the closed roads.  The reason 3x more spikes are killed per GMU in the Colockum than in the Yakima herd's GMU's is because THE ELK HAVE NOWHERE TO ESCAPE TOO.  There's too many people driving too many roads. My biggest @#$%@&* is that  the DNR has logged out all the cover in MANY areas up there that the problem we have WAS caused. Take out hundreds of acres of cover up there and what would be the imminent result. This has happened.  How can they expect bull escapement when so much to escape to has been removed???I completely agree with this statement
 I also brought up the group size limit for SP's What would they be? hopefully bigger than the 12 limit they have for most others since many camps are much bigger than that number. HI suggested this.  If you have 350 or so spike elk becoming branch bulls every year than you can give out easily 600 branch bull permits a year between the three user groups.  The successrates for special permits is about 30% on a good year.  This means you'd kill 200 branch bulls with an increase of 100 branch bulls a year plus the 350 spikes you have.  Eventually I foresee them giving out 1000 permits a year out once the herd is big enough.
How about poaching? Has anyone noticed how many more animals (elk and deer) you see on the Ellensburg sideas compared to the Wenatchee side? Last year we didn't see squat from the lower basin loop ( Schaller or Jumpoff) clear to the Jumpoff line shack.
 Now what does the north side of this area have more of than the south? Orchards and workers maybe?The north side also has a lack of road access.  If you restrict the road access you take away the poachers opportunities.  You also will have much higher spike recruitment.
 By they way...we have been hunting this area in one form or another for 44 years.
 

Also our governess has proposed putting DFW enforcement under the State patrol control... the legislature is increasing license fees by at least 10%, and there are noises of DISSOLVING the game commission to be replaced by what kind of bureocratic mess??
 

Elkaholic.  I understand you have alot of tradition in that area.  What matters more to you.  The quality of the Colockum elk herd or your traditions in the Colockum when you could start new traditions in another unit?  I think we all know the answer to that one. Personally I would rather have a healthy elk herd in the Colockum, if I have to give up a general season in that area then so be it.  In any case I would rather hunt the Colockum every other year or every three years and have a quality hunt going after quality bulls then hunt it every year and have it the poor over-crowded quality it is chasing after baby elk.   Why is it that so many are against road closures.  All the good areas in this state, have one thing in common.  Road access is limited.  Do you honestly believe that the vast amount of road accesss in the Colockum has absolutely no effect on the elk herd there?  As for the disabled there are disabled hunts out there.  We can put in gates and open them up for the disabled for the disabled hunts.  So no-one's trying to take their hunting away.  Plus the Manastash has ATV access all over.

I've also heard you mention 5 pt minimum.       If 85% of spikes are killed every year what do you think would happen in a 5 pt minimum hunt?  85% of your mature bulls would get killed.  Do you have any scientific research to back up any of your ideas.  I'm not trying to be rude but please share with us why you think a 5 pt minimum would be a good idea.  If you have good hard facts to back this up and change my mind I will be on board 100%.  Please share with us why road closures is a bad idea in the Colockum and wouldn't help out.  Currently there's no where for them to hide.  They'd get slaughtered.  Yes you are right I am campaigning hard for a permit only.  I have the facts to back this up.  They already told me the next step if "True Spike" doesn't work is permit only.  So after this year when "True Spike" fails, and it WILL fail the next step is permit only. 

[MichaelJ]

Great post Aaron!  hopefully we get some issues resolved...  From where I sit... we're doing a great job so far.  Not much more that we could do that we aren't doing!  Now I got to get back to studying....   

Michael

[Buckrub]

I've also heard you mention 5 pt minimum.       If 85% of spikes are killed every year what do you think would happen in a 5 pt minimum hunt?  85% of your mature bulls would get killed.  Do you have any scientific research to back up any of your ideas.  I'm not trying to be rude but please share with us why you think a 5 pt minimum would be a good idea.  If you have good hard facts to back this up and change my mind I will be on board 100%.  Please share with us why road closures is a bad idea in the Colockum and wouldn't help out.  Currently there's no where for them to hide.  They'd get slaughtered.  Yes you are right I am campaigning hard for a permit only.  I have the facts to back this up.  They already told me the next step if "True Spike" doesn't work is permit only.  So after this year when "True Spike" fails, and it WILL fail the next step is permit only. 



I think we all agree that spike only is a terrible management practice.

Are the spike escapement numbers you quote actual?...last time I checked they hadn't done any spike escapement studies surprisingly because they haven't met bull ratio numbers.

Road closures and 5 point restrictions will work.

Spike elk generally do not have the savy for escapement as an older bulls. I believe with road closures we could have a much higher bull escapement as a 5 point or better. I can only provide you with numbers from other areas which wouldn't be a fair assessment without actual numbers from the area.

For the sake of argument lets say we close it all together....will the tribes quit hunting? can the state stop them? I think not.

Why do we manage mule deer and west side elk with antler restrictions and not the east side elk? Why the difference in management?

Maybe the difference is we are a lottery state and the WDFW makes $$ from the permit applications and raffle tickets.

Why do hunters have 10+ points for a chance at a bull? That would be 10 years! Wouldn't we better off like Colorado and other states with a antler restriction rule?

[Cougeyes]

I'm all for closing the roads up there and would not be against permit only if it was to better the herd and make for a quality hunt for those that have been waiting so long to draw.

[colockumelk]

Buck rub yes those are actuall spike escapement numbers.  In 2005 only 46 spikes survived the year.  As for 5 pt minimum escapement that would result in more bulls but they'd be sub-par bulls.  All your mature bull elk would be dead.  You say it works in other states but that's comparing apples to oranges.  I guarantee you in other states they don't have the amount of hunting pressure that they have in the Colockum.  Or the road access.  I've already talked about road closures and the WDFW is all for it the problem is that in the Colockum the majority of the land is owned by the DNR.  I'm working that issue as we speak.

The reason it's not 3 pt minimum is because it doesn't work over here.  Remember what it was like prior to 1994 over  here.  You never saw any bulls of a decent size.  The reason is there is just too many hunters and too many roads.  You would decimate the herd.  And in my opinion the 3pt min for Mule Deer doesn't work either.  Our deer herds suck in Central WA. 

I would be all for a 3 pt. minimum or other antler restriction rules like other states.  I really do.  In my dream world of WA it would be a 3pt minimum for elk everywhere.  But also in that dream world we have twice as many elk.  I just don't see us being able to do a 3pt min or a 5 pt min general season hunt.  If you have data that suggests that it would work I would love to see it.  But comparing Colorado with an elk herd of 390,000 to Washington with an elk herd of 70,000 is again comparing apples to oranges. 

[colockumelk]

For the sake of argument lets say we close it all together....will the tribes quit hunting? can the state stop them? I think not.

Why do hunters have 10+ points for a chance at a bull? That would be 10 years! Wouldn't we better off like Colorado and other states with a antler restriction rule?

On your first point read my previous post which said; 

Oh and for those that think that permit only or closing the unit down is only going to take our rights and give the Yakama's a super hunting unit consider this.

While the Boldt Decision of February 12, 1974 did grant the tribes 50% of all the harvest it did reserve the state's right to

The courts have ruled that state regulation of tribal exercise of off-reservation hunting rights on open and unclaimed land is preempted by the Stevens Treaties, except where state regulation is necessary for conservation purposes


I wasn't lieing when I said this.  I did not make that up.  Someone else said that since it's currently permit only for conservation and they can still hunt.  This is not true, while it is permit only for branch bulls, there is still a general hunt, therefore it's not "permit only" for conservation purposes.  If it closes for a year and then goes to permit only then yes this is for conservation purposes since the state is now controlling the harvest for conservation purposes.  Where if there's still a general season there is no conservation since technically we could kill every single spike out there. 

As far as permits go.  Again read my previous posts which said;

I suggested this.  If you have 350 or so spike elk becoming branch bulls every year than you can give out easily 600 branch bull permits a year between the three user groups.  The successrates for special permits is about 30% on a good year.  This means you'd kill 200 branch bulls with an increase of 100 branch bulls a year plus the 350 spikes you have.  Eventually I foresee them giving out 1000 permits a year out once the herd is big enough.

Again if you went to permit only the WDFW would have to give out hundreds of permits otherwise the elk population would grow too fast.  You would definately get drawn every three years if not every year.

I think that the Yakima herds should go to permit only as well.  Later today I'll post some numbers that show just how many permits would be available if it went to permit only compared to how it is now.
 

[MichaelJ]

Aaron I'm really liking the sound of permits only...  I don't do a LOT of elk hunting, but to be able to hunt branched bulls once ever 2-4 years sounds like a great idea to me... lot better than taking 1-2 spikes in that 4 years period (unless you're more than 50% successful during the general season which is something to say the least!)

Michael

[gasman]

My biggest consern with closing or going to a permit only season is that it will force the hunters that normally hunt the area to hunt other areas that are already over hunted, and crowded, like Yakima area.

How would you adress that issue?
 

[Ridgerunner]

Sorry to rain on the parade but you are kidding yourselves if you think the state would ever give out that many permits.  Look at how many the yakima units get and thats a strong elk herd. I'm against going to permit only, there is only one group that would benefit from that.

[MichaelJ]

I'm against going to permit only, there is only one group that would benefit from that.

Who would benefit from that Brian?  The tribes?  Not if the state allows them only half the harvest which is within their rights to do (but only if we do a permit only system).  This means that any time of the year a tribal member is caught without a tag hunting then they can be punished...  Or atleast kept from hunting.  I know it would deter a lot of them...

Michael

[Ridgerunner]

I'd be shocked if the state stood up to the tribes. 

[MichaelJ]

So would I, but atleast they'd have ground to go on instead of saying "its a federal issue and the way things are setup now we don't even have the authority much less use it"...

InsideWDFW even stated that the department knows they can't do *censored* right now...  Atleast if they went to permit only they'd have the authority to do something...

Michael

[colockumelk]

from: Buckrub on Today at 07:25:04 AM
Road closures and 5 point restrictions will work.


5 pt minimum wont work.  In 2007 rifle hunters had a 87.5 success rate.  I could go in there any day of the week and knock over a 5pt minimum bull.  I can't say the same for a spike.  Just like the spikes the Colockum has a much higher success rate than the Yakima area does.  I guarantee you if it were 3 or 5 pt minimum you'd have over a 50% kill off every year of your branch bulls.  It would be just like before 1994.  No big bulls with little ones doing all the breeding.  It didn't work back then so what makes anyone think it would work now?
     
Okay here's my facts on how the permit only would work well in the Colockum. Here's how I figured out my numbers.  I looked up the amount of spikes killed every year in each area.  I then distributed those numbers to each user group using the formula already in place that the WDFW uses to determine which user group gets what permits. I then took those numbers and multiplied them by the average success rate for each user group in each hunt.  I then added the amount of permits already given out.  So here they are


                                                                                          CHANCE TO DRAW BY YEAR
                  CURRENTLY   PERMIT ONLY   INCREASE IN TAGS    1 Pts   2 Pts   3 Pts   4 Pts
MODERN           9                  230             25.56X more tags   7.8%   31.2%  70.2%  125%     
MUZZLE           2                   60              30X more tags       18.9%  75.6%  170%   302%
BOW                3                   100            33.3X more tags     13.2%  52.8%  118%  211%
TOTAL             14                390               28.56X more tags   13.3% 53.2%  118.9%  212.6%

Doesn't seem so bad now does it.  Now that you know you'll be chasing mature bull elk at least every 3 years.

[Buckrub]

I'll bite....
What about the tribes? How do you put the teeth into the tribal hunting?