2018 Washington Wild Sheep Foundation Banquet and Auction

[Whitpirate]

1 in 150,000 odds won by people in control of the tickets. Nothing to see here folks move along.

You’ve had all involved personally state their reasoning, the facts of the audit don’t lie, either you just love to troll or put your money where your mouth is and quit WSF and turn in your membership or volunteer a solution and personally work next years auction to improve it.  Hunts are going to 1st timers and to continue your tirade is silly.

If you don’t stop please don’t come to the banquet because I won’t regret pointing you out as the tool that can’t prove it so I’ll repeat it until someone thinks it’s true.

Bryan, Tammy, and and the rest I am sorry a great night and lucky event have caused you hardship and I hope this won’t diminish your desire to help the organization.  I look forward to getting more involved and look forward to this event and all the amazing investments in conservation it does.

Chris Martin
Life Member, WAWSF

[JoeE]

1 in 150,000 odds won by people in control of the tickets. Nothing to see here folks move along.

You’ve had all involved personally state their reasoning, the facts of the audit don’t lie, either you just love to troll or put your money where your mouth is and quit WSF and turn in your membership or volunteer a solution and personally work next years auction to improve it.  Hunts are going to 1st timers and to continue your tirade is silly.

If you don’t stop please don’t come to the banquet because I won’t regret pointing you out as the tool that can’t prove it so I’ll repeat it until someone thinks it’s true.

Bryan, Tammy, and and the rest I am sorry a great night and lucky event have caused you hardship and I hope this won’t diminish your desire to help the organization.  I look forward to getting more involved and look forward to this event and all the amazing investments in conservation it does.

Chris Martin
Life Member, WAWSF

Chris, I have suggested solutions and have spoke with a board member about this off the forum to suggest how to correct the problem. I also agreed to take part in the helping with the drawing next year.

I think it’s funny that because I point out something that is terribly suspicious I get called a troll. Just because somebody defends what happened I am not going to automatically accept that as facts and truth. How come you didn’t call me a troll last year when I spent a half hour talking to you about the in and outs of setting up a DIY moose hunt in Alaska and then gave you my contact and offered to walk you through the process. Because I called out the process this year now I’m a troll and a tool?

[trophyhunt]

I really wanted this thread to be done, but I have to agree with Joe on this.  He asked the question that many, many were thinking.  Most of us are life members that go to that banquet and most of us believe hole heartily in this organization.  Obviously things could have been done differently, Joe brought things up and now there will be changes, they certainly wouldn't make changes for the worse so maybe they are for the better?   I've known Joe for years now, he's a great guy who puts his life on the line everyday with his work, he's a veteran, husband, father and certainly NOT a troll.  His issues with the draw have not been his own, but he has talked with those in charge and they have worked this out.  lets move the hell on and quit the bashing please.  I'm done.

[Whitpirate]

1 in 150,000 odds won by people in control of the tickets. Nothing to see here folks move along.

You’ve had all involved personally state their reasoning, the facts of the audit don’t lie, either you just love to troll or put your money where your mouth is and quit WSF and turn in your membership or volunteer a solution and personally work next years auction to improve it.  Hunts are going to 1st timers and to continue your tirade is silly.

If you don’t stop please don’t come to the banquet because I won’t regret pointing you out as the tool that can’t prove it so I’ll repeat it until someone thinks it’s true.

Bryan, Tammy, and and the rest I am sorry a great night and lucky event have caused you hardship and I hope this won’t diminish your desire to help the organization.  I look forward to getting more involved and look forward to this event and all the amazing investments in conservation it does.

Chris Martin
Life Member, WAWSF

Chris, I have suggested solutions and have spoke with a board member about this off the forum to suggest how to correct the problem. I also agreed to take part in the helping with the drawing next year.

I think it’s funny that because I point out something that is terribly suspicious I get called a troll. Just because somebody defends what happened I am not going to automatically accept that as facts and truth. How come you didn’t call me a troll last year when I spent a half hour talking to you about the in and outs of setting up a DIY moose hunt in Alaska and then gave you my contact and offered to walk you through the process. Because I called out the process this year now I’m a troll and a tool?

I'm a simple man.  I ask direct questions and expect direct answers.  I appreciate that Andy and Bryan and other board members have come forward and offered what explanation they can for the evening's finish. That you've reached out to offer solutions is great... I haven't seen that in the thread.  I'll be the first to say I'm wrong and that your not a troll or a tool (though in my defense I said if you kept up a "it's fixed tirade" I'd do that... so actually hadn't reached tool calling status yet and I'll shake your hand and offer to buy you your first round next year at the banquet.  Its a fickle thing to dance with odds and while they are long there aren't 1 in 150,000 it is easy to figure out.


The first drawing was 1/130?  For first timer life members that haven't hunted a sheep (I don't know the actual number.) but that doesn't really get to the conspiracy spot so let's focus on the 2nd drawing.

I'd say there was approximately 320 life members there?  so the odds of drawing would be 1/320 = 0.003125

the probability of winning the lottery = the number of winning tickets/the total number of possible tickets.

The fact that the second drawing had a life member drawn that wasn't present actually makes the odds marginally better..... 2/319 = 0.006269592476489  as her name was present for both drawings and the second time there was one less ticket in there.  No where does this come close to 1 in 150,000. 

I did and continue to appreciate your knowledge of moose, the information you shared and at no time did I make any judgements on your service/veteran status etc...

Again, I'll be the first to thank you for offering solutions that you find would make this more transparent to the board and will offer to help in anyway I can.  I'll shake your hand and buy you a drink at next year's banquet if you'll let me and if not know that I don't hold malice but I also don't believe in any fashion that this was rigged.

I'll look forward to seeing the hunts outcome and will cheer both 1st time hunters as they seek out the target that many of us will only dream about hunting.


That said with 1 less than max moose points and never drawing while helping folks with less than 5 points draw here in WA I'll be the first to offer conspiracy theories!

All the best to you Joe and let me know if I can help.

[trophyhunt]

 

[cem3434]

Bryan , thank you to you and your family for all the hard work put  in over the years . Be assured that many people including my self never once thought of any corruption by Tammy . I hope your daughter enjoys every minute of her hunt . Corey

 

[Skyvalhunter]

 

[lokidog]

Its a fickle thing to dance with odds and while they are long there aren't 1 in 150,000 it is easy to figure out.


The first drawing was 1/130?  For first timer life members that haven't hunted a sheep (I don't know the actual number.) but that doesn't really get to the conspiracy spot so let's focus on the 2nd drawing.

I'd say there was approximately 320 life members there?  so the odds of drawing would be 1/320 = 0.003125

the probability of winning the lottery = the number of winning tickets/the total number of possible tickets.

The fact that the second drawing had a life member drawn that wasn't present actually makes the odds marginally better..... 2/319 = 0.006269592476489  as her name was present for both drawings and the second time there was one less ticket in there.  No where does this come close to 1 in 150,000. 

You are correct in the odds, to a point.... If the first drawing had 130 tickets, a ticket holder would have a 0.7% chance of drawing.  Taken separately, the second drawing would have a 1/319 chance of drawing, or 0.3% chance of drawing. I am unsure of where the "2" comes from as there was ultimately only one ticket drawn for the win.

Now, for the statistically unsure, when you say "or" as in you have a chance to win this one OR that one, the chances are added to each other, 0.7 + 0.3 = 1.0% chance of drawing one OR the other.  When you say "and" as in your chances of winning this one AND that one, your chances are multiplied by each other 0.7 X 0.3 = 0.0021% chance of drawing both of them.  So to draw both of them you have a 1/41470 chance of drawing both.

Just so everyone knows, I have no skin in this game, congratulations to the lucky winner.  My dad wins at least one gun in almost every other banquet he goes to, some people get lucky. If I was not eventually going to get some/most of them and was always at the table next to him, I might be a little jealous and wonder how he did it as well.....      

[JoeE]

Not to continue beating the dead horse but I thought they said the life member drawing was pushing 500 names. I don’t know the exact number of the less than one but I was guessing around 200.

Thanks for the comment Chris, I look forward to chatting with you guys every year there.

[elkchaser54]

Jealousy and Greed are 2 powerful motivators to making online forum posts.  Its entertaining to see jealousy play out in this manner.  I have never won any draws in this state while my dad continues to get them and were in the same units.  Frustrating but I don't think any WDFW employee is sitting there pushing buttons rigging a draw.  It's luck and you either have it or you don't.  Stats was a tough class in college haha.  Lets all just remember the scene from Dumb and Dumber .... "So you're telling me there's a chance" ... You can't make up real life, its crazy and made up of millions of "Chance" opportunities.  Don't get angry at them just revel in the enjoyment and wonder of not knowing whats next.  Or think the world is out to get you and everyone is shady.

[Skyvalhunter]

What about Greed?

[elkchaser54]

Greed of wanting that hunt and assuming because you didn't win; it must be rigged

[JoeE]

Greed of wanting that hunt and assuming because you didn't win; it must be rigged

Again..I’m pretty sure that the reasons for thinking it was more than just luck have been pointed out more than once. The issues raised with the integrity of the draw and how it went down is the issue.