Out of the points game

[M_ray]

  Thank you Stein this is an excellent example! If they don’t get it now they never will!

[bobcat]

No matter what is changed, draw odds will not improve much. There will still be the same number of hunters applying for the same number of permits. It's a lot of wishful thinking, in my opinion, that any particular change will help increase a person's odds of drawing a permit.

Bob I don’t get how you and others don’t understand this simple principle. There won’t be the same odds because if you can only choose one animal it takes you OUT of all other categories thus increasing the odds in all of them. The only way your odds would be the same is if you were still allowed to make 18 choices.

Because, if my odds go up in one category of permits, but I can only apply in ONE category, then my odds also go down (to zero) in the others. So the increase of odds of drawing in the one, are offset by the decrease of odds in all the others, since now I'm not allowed to apply in those. Overall, odds of drawing A permit, would be the same, averaged out over all the hunters and all the special permits available.

[Stein]

True, you are making a trade, not gaining anything overall.

Here is another way to think about it.  Say we both put in for both goat and sheep.  I'm not that jacked about goats but really want to hunt sheep.  You are the opposite, so we strike a bargain - I won't put in for goat if you don't put in for sheep.  Both our odds of drawing the tag we really want goes up in exchange for no chance for the one we don't care for as much.

Doing that on a massive scale would chance things by a very large margin.  You trade your chances at something you don't want as much for something you want more. 

[bobcat]

Stein,

Exactly right. But personally I want to apply for everything, and I think most other people do too. The only change I'd really like to see is a two or three year waiting period for those who draw a deer or elk permit.

Oh, actually one more change- get rid of the "bull" and "buck" categories.

[Bob33]

What happens if you make that deal but two thirds of the applicants apply for sheep? You gave up a chance to draw another OIL permit for little gain. The goat applicants are happy but you lost ground overall.

[bobcat]

What happens if you make that deal but two thirds of the applicants apply for sheep? You gave up a chance to draw another OIL permit for little gain. The goat applicants are happy but you lost ground overall.

That's a good point too. You don't know if your odds will increase or decrease. It all depends on where the majority of applicants decide to put their one and only application. Your odds may get better, but they also may get worse.

[W_Ellison2011]

We could do like Idaho... and only allow X amount of NR tags to be drawn! That seems fair since they did that right? lol!

[NOCK NOCK]

Most will apply for that ONE permit they really want..........Most have the SAME ONE permit they really want, We'll end up with worse odds on the permits we all want. 

[fishngamereaper]

Front the cash for the tag and pick one oil.

To many options for to cheap a price. I've been playing the oil game for over 20 years, I would rather increase my odds of drawing just one than have a small chance at all three.

[Stein]

What happens if you make that deal but two thirds of the applicants apply for sheep? You gave up a chance to draw another OIL permit for little gain. The goat applicants are happy but you lost ground overall.

You are still better off as there is zero chance 10,000 people are all going to make the same choice.  Every person that chooses a deer, elk, moose goat or bear tag increases your odds.  Your odds really can't get worse.

Look at it like this.  Say you add up all your points across all species and you have 40 total points.  If WDFW called you up and said congrats, you win the magic draw and you have the option of either putting your points in like everyone else or you can take some from X and put them in Y.  Would you do that?  I think most people would, meaning that if given the choice, they would gladly trade opportunity.

Maybe not, I am assuming most people think like me which is scary at some level.

If you want to put in for everything, then you have to look at another way of dramatically decreasing the applicants, say making everything OIL?  Or, live with what we have.  I guess the point is there is no real awesome solution that will give everyone what they want.  I look at it like lottery tickets vs. "it's my turn".  I assume I will never draw the quality or OIL tag I put in for and maybe a couple antlerless here or there.

[Bob33]

What happens if you make that deal but two thirds of the applicants apply for sheep? You gave up a chance to draw another OIL permit for little gain. The goat applicants are happy but you lost ground overall.

You are still better off as there is zero chance 10,000 people are all going to make the same choice.  Every person that chooses a deer, elk, moose goat or bear tag increases your odds.

Look at it like this.  Say you add up all your points across all species and you have 40 total points.  If WDFW called you up and said congrats, you win the magic draw and you have the option of either putting your points in like everyone else or you can take some from X and put them in Y.  Would you do that?  I think most people would, meaning that if given the choice, they would gladly trade opportunity.

Maybe not, I am assuming most people think like me which is scary at some level.

I would, but when I put all my points in sheep you'd be ticked.

[Stein]

What happens if you make that deal but two thirds of the applicants apply for sheep? You gave up a chance to draw another OIL permit for little gain. The goat applicants are happy but you lost ground overall.

You are still better off as there is zero chance 10,000 people are all going to make the same choice.  Every person that chooses a deer, elk, moose goat or bear tag increases your odds.

Look at it like this.  Say you add up all your points across all species and you have 40 total points.  If WDFW called you up and said congrats, you win the magic draw and you have the option of either putting your points in like everyone else or you can take some from X and put them in Y.  Would you do that?  I think most people would, meaning that if given the choice, they would gladly trade opportunity.

Maybe not, I am assuming most people think like me which is scary at some level.

I would, but when I put all my points in sheep you'd be ticked.

Yeah, but next year she would be all mine.

Averaging everything out, there are about 1,000 entries for every goat tag issued, so even Yoda would have a hard time drawing in his lifetime.

[Magnum_Willys]

Maybe not, I am assuming most people think like me which is scary at some  ALL levels.

Uh yea ! 

[High Climber]

My vote is for the status quo. Hunt OTC every year and pay a small fee to have a slim chance of drawing a great unit or OIL species. It’s a lottery, there should be no feeling of entitlement.  If you don’t like it, don’t play. If you want out, get out... your only out a few hundred bucks over 20 years  Not enough tags to go around

[M_ray]

I told ya stein they are never going to get it! You guys want to put in for EVERYTHING and that waters down your chances. The only way to increase your odds and increase the quality is to do it the way others are doing it. Keep with the current system and you have a better chance of  go lint the rest of your life and never draw. Me personally? I’d rather have a couple of those hunts checked off before I check out  and if that means I don’t get to put in on everything then that’s the trade off. You can draw one of your choices within a few years and plan for your next hunt. Right now you are wasting your money and time.