sheep odds

[oldschool]

 has anybody figured out the odds for drawing with max points?

[X-Force]

In 2015 when I looked at this last, Mount Hull which had the best draw odds, had about 0.5% chance with max points. I would think that is slightly less than that now.

[Stein]

It’s very difficult to calculate true odds with multiple choices in a category.  I believe the only way to do it is run computer models where they run the drawing millions of times to key in on the odds.

That said, it’s very low and the vast majority will never draw in their lifetime regardless of how many points one has.


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[Buckjunkie]

I just checked on the WDFW website and it shows 21 for Sheep and Goat for me. I’m trying to remember if I missed a year. Can someone tel me what the max is if you didn’t miss a year. I know a few guys have more from turning in poachers. I’m not interested in their count.

Thanks!

[bobcat]

The maximum points a person could have is 23. The first year of the point system was 1996.

[X-Force]

The maximum points a person could have is 23. The first year of the point system was 1996.

And there are no OIL points for turning in poachers.

[boneaddict]

I wonder if someone could do the math and show that youd have better odds of drawing with zero points (clean slate) than continuing with the pool flooded with those with 23 (exponential) points.  In other words.....true odds versus the point pool.

[X-Force]

Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.

however,

Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%

Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%


Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.

Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.

[D-Rock425]

Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.

however,

Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%

Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%


Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.

Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.

so you're telling me there's a chance?

[X-Force]

Thats one way to look at it. 

[WSU]

Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.

however,

Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%

Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.

If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%


Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.

Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.

so you're telling me there's a chance?

Not really?

[boneaddict]

There you have it.  I’m trusting your math was good. I refuse to try.   Seems pretty reasonable.   

Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho.  You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk.    You gots to make choices.  But I tell you what.  It very much helps with drawing tags.

[Rainier10]

There you have it.  I’m trusting your math was good. I refuse to try.   Seems pretty reasonable.   

Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho.  You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk.    You gots to make choices.  But I tell you what.  It very much helps with drawing tags.

Yep, I put in my $2,200 in advance and still didn't draw an Idaho sheep tag.  I was $2,200  lighter in the wallet for a few months but I had a much better chance. 

[idaho guy]

There you have it.  I’m trusting your math was good. I refuse to try.   Seems pretty reasonable.   

Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho.  You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk.    You gots to make choices.  But I tell you what.  It very much helps with drawing tags.

I used too hate the way Idaho did it till I saw the odds in other states. Now that I have been educated I love it! It sucks that it took 20 years for my moose and I have not drawn much else but at least least I have a reasonable chance every year. I had 20% odds on an "unpopular" goat hunt last year. Still didn't draw! but nice having not only a chance but a really good one. Those Washington sheep odds are depressing but I will never put in anyways.     

[oldschool]

Why do I live in this state?

[PAW66]

Is there a way to find out if you had been drawn, but you choices had been filled? would your application be returned to the pot

[Mtnwalker]

Now matter how you look at it the odds of drawing a sheep tag are Baaa-aa-d



                                                                   

[trophyhunt]

Is there a way to find out if you had been drawn, but you choices had been filled? would your application be returned to the pot

your always drawn, problem is the tags are usually filled by then.  Out of all your points, only the one with the lowest random number is drawn.

[coonhound]

Dont give up, my hunting partner drew last year and I drew this year, my hunting partner had max points and I had 18.

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[Rainier10]

Now matter how you look at it the odds of drawing a sheep tag are Baaa-aa-d



                                                                   

I see what you did there. 

[jstone]

So I have a chance with 4 points?

[sjhgraysage]

"So I have a chance with 4 points?"

Yes, a poor chance but a chance..... 

[addicted1]

Best odds are buying a load of raffle tickets. If you go by odds alone that's you best bet. If it were my choice, I would go with idaho system. But, it doesn't bring in the revenue like the point system...I think

[jager]

Best odds are buying a load of raffle tickets. If you go by odds alone that's you best bet. If it were my choice, I would go with idaho system. But, it doesn't bring in the revenue like the point system...I think

Your best odds, yes.
Just know these raffle tags are "purchased" by folks with deep pockets 

[PAW66]

Is there a way to find out if you had been drawn, but you choices had been filled? would your application be returned to the pot

your always drawn, problem is the tags are usually filled by then.  Out of all your points, only the one with the lowest random number is drawn.

How do you find out what your numbers are?

[Falcon]

The maximum points a person could have is 23. The first year of the point system was 1996.

 

I’m at max.  The odds go down slightly each year even though the max point holders numbers drop each year.   Moose is a lot easier to draw than sheep and goat.  I’ve been lucky drawing the other 2. 
The sheep tag would be the ultimate hat trick 

[jdw12885]

Wonder how many out of state hunters have the same chance of drawing as we do

[X-Force]

Wonder how many out of state hunters have the same chance of drawing as we do

I could be wrong but Ive only seen 1 out of state oil tag holder in the last couple years. I dont think we get many.

Out of state people probably buy more raffle tickets than applying for special permits.