GoHunt to publish WA odds

[Stein]

The good news is that I just confirmed with GoHunt that they will be offering WA draw odds sometime before the draw deadline.  The bad news is that means a drastic reduction in the threads where we argue about the odds and the numbers of balls in the hat.

My guess is that there are going to be some pretty bleak reality unleashed, but maybe I'm wrong.

It will be interesting if they also have historical data that shows what has been happening over the last few years, since we have bonus points the "point creep" may actually be mild compared to other states.

[vandeman17]

That will be interesting to see. Its funny because I listen to the elktalk podcast and they have dedicated podcasts to talk about application strategies for most western states but they don't talk about WA. They even said it was a waste of time to discuss because of the system we use and the crappy hunting we have 

[bearpaw]

   That's why other previously popular services really have not done much with WA.

[grundy53]

Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

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[Karl Blanchard]

Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

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  really makes zero sense to me why they would even waste the resources to figure it out.  They probably get a lot of emails from Washington users I'd imagine.

[Bango skank]

Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

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   i think im done putting in for any special permits after this year.  Just hate giving wdfw so much money when our wildlife is managed so poorly.

[Stein]

Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

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  really makes zero sense to me why they would even waste the resources to figure it out.  They probably get a lot of emails from Washington users I'd imagine.

I know they have a bigtime statistics/math guy on the payroll, maybe they have him full time with the idea of getting all the hunting states with draws up as a way to gain more marketshare.  If it were me, I would be moving quickly to get to the top of the research pile.  I would bet there are guys that only hunt WA that would pay for the service.  Even if I was only putting myself and my family through all the draws just in WA it would be worthwhile in my opinion.

Services like OnX are already seeing competition, anyone with a few bucks can put stuff together these days.  The need for continual improvement is crucial to stay in business.

[bearpaw]

Probably a waste of time and resources for Gohunt. If I was a non resident I wouldn't hunt here. I barely want to hunt here as it is. It will be interesting to see the true odds.

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  really makes zero sense to me why they would even waste the resources to figure it out.  They probably get a lot of emails from Washington users I'd imagine.

It actually makes good sense to me, probably the only western state with a higher percentage of hunters who go out of state is CA. GoHunt is offering a segment of it''s customers a resource most other services haven't provided. Many hunters in WA also would like to know odds in their home state.

[Dhoey07]

I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied. 

[Brushcrawler]

It will be very interesting to see accurate odds for WA. It’s not possible to replicate the draw odds without the detailed bootstrapping methods that goHunt uses so there may be some surprises. In the long run it will likely redistribute applications and make the odds of similar hunts more consistent over time.

[wheels]

kinda surprised  every time i hear them talk about us its from a non res perspective and not worth it to apply   

[X-Force]

I wonder if seeing the draw odds will change peoples perception of the species/category system and put pressure on WDFW to change the system back to 5 species with no categories or to a system where people can only apply for 1 or 2 species. 

kinda surprised  every time i hear them talk about us its from a non res perspective and not worth it to apply   

or resident 

[Stein]

I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied.

Bingo.  My expectation is that a hunt where the average is say 13 points that the odds of drawing with 13 points is going to be much lower than most people (myself included) realize.

I don't see WDFW changing much as they can't afford to miss revenue in their already depleted budget.  The only real budget neutral fix would be to take away draws and charge more.  Thus, you could apply for a quality deer or elk draw hunt, but it would cost $26 instead of $13 each.  Typically, cost increases to resident hunting or fishing result in pitchforks coming out.  They would have to sell the public on what would look like half the opportunity for double the cost.

[Ridgerunner]

I'll be interested in seeing what the odds are they calculate.  It will be a real eye opener for alot of people.  Draw odds in this state are very very poor for most hunts. 

[bobcat]

I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied.

You're wrong about that. It IS the average of those who drew the permit.

To prove this to yourself, look at some of the permits that only have 1 permit. Let's say the "Ten Ten" Quality bull elk permit (Hunt #2006.) It shows 1 permit available, and 107 applications in 2017 with average points of 26. There's no way the average of all applications was 26. So it was the one person that drew who had 26 points.