GoHunt to publish WA odds

[Stein]

Yeah, it is the average points of the successful applicants.  It is not how many points you need to draw, just the average of who drew.  Basically, it is a useless statistic as it doesn't tell you anything about your odds of drawing at any point level.  Further, I think many people look at that and say, hey, the average is 13, so when I get 13 I'll probably draw.

[bobcat]

Yeah, it is the average points of the successful applicants.  It is not how many points you need to draw, just the average of who drew.  Basically, it is a useless statistic as it doesn't tell you anything about your odds of drawing at any point level.  Further, I think many people look at that and say, hey, the average is 13, so when I get 13 I'll probably draw.

True statement! The number is meaningless. They would be better off to not include that number, because, as you said, it's very misleading to people who don't pay a lot of attention to the true odds of drawing a permit in Washington.

[Dhoey07]

I haven't looked at washington regs in a couple years so I apologize in advance if its different now but, I think a lot of people see the average points next to a special draw and think that that amount is the average of who drew the tag. When in reality that is the average of everyone who applied.

You're wrong about that. It IS the average of those who drew the permit.

To prove this to yourself, look at some of the permits that only have 1 permit. Let's say the "Ten Ten" Quality bull elk permit (Hunt #2006.) It shows 1 permit available, and 107 applications in 2017 with average points of 26. There's no way the average of all applications was 26. So it was the one person that drew who had 26 points.

Thanks for the clarification

[idahohuntr]

I'm not surprised they are doing it - I'm betting they have a lot of WA residents as customers given how many of us hunt out of state.

Calculating the odds is not terribly difficult - but getting timely and accurate data from WDFW to calculate odds could be a nightmare...although...maybe it will be a blessing for wdfw.  The GoHunt guys can just talk to the tech people that run the draws and get the right data and just do it for them. 

[Stein]

The problem they will run into after they get the data is that for many tags you can put second and third choices as well.  I seem to remember an interview where they basically have to run millions of draws on their computer to get at the actual odds for states like WA, there is no way to effectively calculate them mathematically.

[KFhunter]

I'd bet a good chunk of GoHunt's customers are Washington hunters trying to figure out how to hunt other states, I'm glad they're doing this.


I'm a gohunt elite member myself and I know quite a few of you all replying here probably are too.

[bearpaw]

I use these services on a regular basis to determine areas to apply for, it's a quick way to compare units, it has been disappointing that most avoid providing WA info. I need to renew my GoHunt membership, this was a good reminder to do so.

[Magnum_Willys]

We will still put in even when its one chance over the next 100 years.   Because we dream.   

[grundy53]

I'd bet a good chunk of GoHunt's customers are Washington hunters trying to figure out how to hunt other states, I'm glad they're doing this.


I'm a gohunt elite member myself and I know quite a few of you all replying here probably are too.

I am also

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[sagerat]

In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

[actionshooter]

From GoHunts perspective its probably a good investment, they will gain a bunch of new clients, from my perspective the odds are so bleak its a waste of time.

[Stein]

In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

Pretty close although they have landowner tags and a waiting period after you draw a tag before you can apply again.  There are also a few other rules like being able to turn the tag in for a refund of money and points and the ability to buy points only after the draw.

Their points system works the same way, which is to say you gather points and have horrific odds at drawing a tag.

[Matth]

I will continue to apply, mainly because i'm in to deep to stop now. I'm very interested to see go hunts take on this.

[X-Force]

In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

Pretty close although they have landowner tags and a waiting period after you draw a tag before you can apply again.  There are also a few other rules like being able to turn the tag in for a refund of money and points and the ability to buy points only after the draw.

Their points system works the same way, which is to say you gather points and have horrific odds at drawing a tag.

The big difference between WA and NV is WA has OTC and NV is draw only.

[BeerBugler]

In my opinion it’s just a matter of too many people wanting an extremely limited amount of tags. Am I wrong or is Washington’s system identical to Nevada’s?

Pretty close although they have landowner tags and a waiting period after you draw a tag before you can apply again.  There are also a few other rules like being able to turn the tag in for a refund of money and points and the ability to buy points only after the draw.

Their points system works the same way, which is to say you gather points and have horrific odds at drawing a tag.

AND....Nevada only gives 10% to non residents. The great state of Washington doesn’t care who gets the tags in fact, they would prefer all tags to go to non residents because WDFW gets more money! I’ve drawn 2 awesome tags in Nevada in 6 years....I drew one ok tag in WA in 14.