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Author Topic: GoHunt to publish WA odds  (Read 7241 times)

Offline Bob33

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #60 on: February 13, 2019, 03:22:24 PM »
The preference point system was “sold” on the premise that more points equaled improved draw odds:

“Building special permit points gives applicants a better chance in the random drawings. Each special permit category has a separate drawing.

The special permit drawing system is similar to pulling tickets out of a barrel. Building points gives an applicant more tickets. The system also squares points. That means a person with one point ends up with one entry (1x1=1) and a person with 10 points ends up with 100 entries (10x10=100).”


I don’t see the preference point system changing in any significant way in the foreseeable future. If someone who has applied for 20 years is told that next year he would go into the hat with the same  odds as everyone else, a lot of them would scream. Scrapping it all together would probably lead to a slew of lawsuits.

There simply aren't enough permits to allocate all of them and “buy out” the top point holders in most categories. Even if there were, it would not be fair to those with fewer points to be told they had no chance to draw. Perhaps there is a way to phase out the system without punishing certain participants, but it would very difficult (and costly) to implement and most likely wouldn't be completely fair anyway.

I think over time the system will stabilize itself at a lower number of applicants: fewer hunters, fewer hunters willing to participate in the system, and better odds for the remaining applicants.

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Offline Branden

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #61 on: February 13, 2019, 03:47:12 PM »
I drew a bull tag for the blues as a non res. It took me two tries as a non res to draw. And like stated you do not get a refund if you don’t draw. You buy the tag plus pay over $100 to apply per species.

As for fixing point systems and making it easier to draw some states could really get fixed and some not so much.

Offline bobcat

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #62 on: February 13, 2019, 03:48:17 PM »
Do away with most, or all, general deer and elk seasons, and people would cycle through their points much faster. Don't draw a permit, you don't hunt that year. People would be much less willing to hold out for 20 years waiting for that trophy unit.

Offline idahohuntr

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #63 on: February 13, 2019, 03:57:29 PM »
It seems that more and more people are agreeing now that point systems are unsustainable. With most people as well as state agencies now aware of this, what measures, processes, and procedures does everyone foresee happening in the future to address the issue? Will game departments abandon point systems and come up with new systems? Will they simply be tweaked and reworked further? There is a lot of uncertainty about what the future is going to hold in regards to this issue. The whole situation makes me uneasy. Change is likely coming, its just a matter of when and will it be effective or not?
I see a few changes on the horizon - all of which will be implemented slowly and phased in as the outcry to major or sudden changes would not be politically acceptable.

My predictions:

1. States in a true preference system will began allocating more and more tags to random draws to keep newcomers interested. States with extremely low odds bonus point systems will also likely do the same. @huntnphool has described a process that over many years would wean states off points...but I'm not sure there is an appetite for that in the foreseeable future.

2. Costs to play will continue to rise at a faster pace than we've seen previously...continuing increases to point and app fees.   

3. For some states, particularly those with horrible draw odds, we will begin seeing tweaks to improve odds as more folks become savvy to just how bad the odds are.  Things like limiting choices, increasing costs to apply, fronting tag fees etc. will become more common.

4. With existing data and information so widely available on how points systems have "worked"...Idaho, New Mexico, and Wyoming (for resident deer/elk) will never adopt a point system of any kind.   
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Offline actionshooter

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #64 on: February 13, 2019, 08:16:51 PM »
Do away with most, or all, general deer and elk seasons, and people would cycle through their points much faster. Don't draw a permit, you don't hunt that year. People would be much less willing to hold out for 20 years waiting for that trophy unit.
Washington's hunter population already took a hit when the timber companies closed there gates, ending general seasons would be the final nail in the coffin for hunting in Wa. A lot of people would quit hunting completely if they couldn't get a tag every year.
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Offline bobcat

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #65 on: February 13, 2019, 08:40:44 PM »
Do away with most, or all, general deer and elk seasons, and people would cycle through their points much faster. Don't draw a permit, you don't hunt that year. People would be much less willing to hold out for 20 years waiting for that trophy unit.
Washington's hunter population already took a hit when the timber companies closed there gates, ending general seasons would be the final nail in the coffin for hunting in Wa. A lot of people would quit hunting completely if they couldn't get a tag every year.

There are other states that don't have unlimited over the counter tags for all of their deer and elk seasons, states such as Oregon, Nevada, and Colorado. I'm confused as to why it works in those states but can't work here.

Offline Stein

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #66 on: February 13, 2019, 08:47:05 PM »
It won't work here because WDFW doesn't have a reason to do otherwise.  In the states you mentioned, if they opened a joke spike season and it was the circus that it is here there would be a revolt.  Same with the draw.  In those states, their game agency is tied to the hunting and fishing community and generally acts in the best interest of game and sportsmen.  In WA, it is tied to the politics in Olympia.  Sell tags, who cares what happens.  Maybe we get zero elk, maybe we crush the herd.  Either way, we pay our dues and don't complain very loudly.

Our state will happily sue certain things, but when is the last time they went to bat in court on behalf of sportsmen?  Think about that for a minute, what are the resources of WA compared to ID, MT or WY?  Why are they the ones constantly going to bat over these issues while we take it in the shorts every time?

Can anyone remember the state getting involved in substantial court action on behalf of recreational hunters or fishermen?

Offline Ghost Hunter

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #67 on: February 15, 2019, 03:14:34 PM »
I can see non-resident youth applying, especially for OIL permits. Their cost is less than adult residents for both the application, and the tag if drawn.

I’ve always wondered that. So non res youth pay youth prices?
Yes.

the same in Idaho too, youth have good opportunities in many states  ;)

 :yeah:  And get to hunt first in some.   :chuckle:
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Offline HoofsandWings

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #68 on: February 16, 2019, 11:29:20 AM »
Years before I retired, I wrote such programs. They are not difficult to program, but you need access to a statistical software package.
It has to do with rare events, like the odds of a meteor striking your house or traffic accidents in a one mile stretch of a rural road.
If you pick only one selection with 5 permits, the odds are long, but if you select 3 or 4, the odds are greatly increased in your favor.
When I drew all 3 oils in a 6 year period, that is what I did.
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Offline bearpaw

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #69 on: February 27, 2019, 07:09:09 AM »
I think some Point systems are self perpetuating because everyone that's spent many years applying has a large investment. In Washington alone you can burn $200 per year on applications and gain a point per specie. Some hunters have a 20+ year investment in points for some species, they are probably not going to quietly let point systems be ended.

There are different types of point systems, true Preference point systems (like CO) where only the applicants with the most points can draw, Bonus point systems (like WA) where points give applicants additional chances in the draw, and a mix of Bonus and Preference Point systems (like UT) that give a percentage of tags to the applicants with the most bonus points and a percentage of the tags to randomly drawn applicants regardless of how many points you have. In the bonus point system and mixed systems a person entering the draw for the first time has a small fraction of a chance of drawing. In a true Preference point system first time applicants in drawings with more applicants than tags have no chance of drawing until they have enough points to be included the group of applicants with the most points equal to the number of available tags in that given year.

Preference: https://huntscore.com/blog/preference-points-understanding-the-system-in-colorado
Bonus: https://wdfw.wa.gov/help/categories/Hunting/Special+Hunt+Permits/Special+Hunt+Permits+%26+the+Weighted+Point+System/
Mix: https://wildlife.utah.gov/rules-regulations/988-r657-62--drawing-application-procedures.html

No matter if a state has a point system or if a state (like ID) has no point system, in most cases there are more applicants than animals available to hunt. That's why there is a draw for that species. The only real way to increase draw odds for any specie is to increase the population of those animals or decrease the number of applicants. Different views of accomplishing either of those goals is debatable on many points.
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Offline rosscrazyelk

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #70 on: March 17, 2019, 08:06:34 AM »
Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.
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Offline Magnum_Willys

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #71 on: March 17, 2019, 08:31:43 AM »
I think Bobcat computed the odds a few years ago??  Any updates on the gohunt numbers or timeline?  For odds over 1:100 its just silly not to put in for easier units I would think.    :dunno:

Offline Ghost Hunter

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #72 on: March 17, 2019, 08:36:20 AM »
Got to find that side door, like the college entry system.   :peep:
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Offline D-Rock425

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #73 on: March 17, 2019, 06:34:38 PM »
Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.
I've seen whitetail shows here.  You don't see any shows come here for elk because everything is draw only on east side and you have to buy tag unlike other states that give refunds if you're unsuccessful in draw.

Offline full choke

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Re: GoHunt to publish WA odds
« Reply #74 on: March 17, 2019, 07:28:21 PM »
Not hard to figure out the odds suck.
Also unless it was a special draw such as rinellas.  You never see on you tube a washington hunt. Only videos are from the people who are residents who draw. Never see the the shows come here.

Good.
Why would we EVER want a show to film here? Why would that EVER be a good thing?
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