Permit quotas

[bobcat]

Probably wanna read dvolmers post again gents.  He's saying the opposite.  He's saying if the two guys put in individually, the odds of ONE of them drawing is better than if they put in as a group. He's spot on.

 

[Johnny Doe]

Ok i have read all the posts in this thread and no one talked about it so i will for a second.

1 hunter with 28 points and 1 with 17 goes in with the average.

28 + 17 = 45 points divide by 2 = 22.5 points squared =506.25 entries.Cutting the chances of 1 almost in half and almost doubling the chances of the other. 

This is partially right and K Blanch is also right in pointing out that putting in individually gives you a better chance!  Depending on the hunt choice/applicants/number of tags, your odds don't actually get cut in half for 45 v 22 points...

I think Mykiss was about to point this out and if you want some actual numbers we might get a screen shot of some actual odds as well.  Unfortunately dropping the tag numbers like they are planning will absolutely blow your odds out of the water of ever drawing one of those hunts 

Then again, everyone has a chance!!! 

[Stein]

The other thing about group applications is that if you have a group of two I believe there have to be two tags still available when they get to your number.  Thus, if they are down to one tag and your group is drawn, they go to the next number.  Some states will allow over issuing the tags, but I don't think WA does.

I'm sure someone around here knows if this is true or not.

Either way, the odds were horrible last year and are now horrible/4 with no management plan, recovery plan or generally any logical hope that they will get back to only horrible in my lifetime. 

[Oh Mah]

Probably wanna read dvolmers post again gents.  He's saying the opposite.  He's saying if the two guys put in individually, the odds of ONE of them drawing is better than if they put in as a group. He's spot on.

In my post about the group and individual points it had nothing to do with the odds but only how the points are put in as a group.I firmly agree putting in as a group will always lower the odds.

[Karl Blanchard]

Once I was pissed about this state and their game management, then I got over it...hell I almost understood why it was so difficult for them to NOT DECIMATE the Kahlotus deer herd.

The elk permit quotas...I'm not sure I can get over this. Like seriously I'm formulating a plan to get the hell out, burn points on lesser hunts or no hunts...I'm DEAD SERIOUS.

:yeah:I've been considering this since I had 10 points, now at 24 points, I really want out.  Once drawn, I'm done.

I have 28 points and my odds are so bad that I always include a buddy on my app because the odds between 28 and 17 points are pretty much equally a crap burrito sandwich!!

Entries in the pot with 28 points is 784.  Entries in the pot with 17 points is 289.  Yes the odds are terrible, but you would have twice the chance of drawing with your 28 instead of the 17.  On top of that, if you entered with your 28 points and 784 entries and your buddy put in with his assumed 17 points and 289 entries that would give the two of you 1073 entries that ONE of you (not both) would get drawn.  That is what we do.  We all put in separately because getting a super quality tag ever so often is better than all of us getting it the same year and trying to fill the all of the tags with quality animals.  When one draws the entire group can help him or her have the hunt of a lifetime.  Now with all of that said, if there are very many quality animals left on public land in Washington is open for debate.  I'm still in that out of state is where you need to go but that can be tough too if you don't have good options and info.

Still reading all the post so i can't see what the future posts are yet but want to point out that this is not correct and is not how the points are added with groups. 

dvolmer WAS correct in his math of an individual with 28pt and 17pt having 1073 entries in the draw for the chance of ONE of them getting a tag.

[Oh Mah]

  I see what you are saying now if each put in they will. 

[Karl Blanchard]

I skimmed it the first time i read it and was scratching my head as well but went back and read it more thoroughly and it made sense.

[Oh Mah]

 

Fact is if they keep taking away tags the group thing may not be as popular as it is with some  .

Reducing tags in some areas is gonna be good for the herds.The biggest problem is the lack of breeding when we have these super hot summers. 

We can find ways to fight the predators but i don't have any idea how we can do anything about the cows not going into season because of hot summers.Artificial maybe?

[bobcat]

Hot summers? What's that got to do with whether cows are getting bred or not? Never heard of that. They come into heat the same time of the year, every year, and if there are enough mature bulls, they will get bred. If it's hot, might be more active at night. Now the real problem might be the Yakama tribe allowing their members to kill unlimited numbers of bulls so they can sell jerky and sell the trophy heads.

[Oh Mah]

I was told by one of the biologist this winter that the reason for the decline in calf numbers is do to the really long hot summers and that elk cows sometimes don't go into season because of this.

[bobcat]

I was told by one of the biologist this winter that the reason for the decline in calf numbers is do to the really long hot summers and that elk cows sometimes don't go into season because of this.

Really? Maybe it's something to do with poor nutrition due to drought.

[Oh Mah]

  honestly it was the first i ever heard of it myself.

[fishngamereaper]

honestly it was the first i ever heard of it myself.

It's cause it's made up...other states have hotter summers than wa but elk seem to do just fine.

[dreamingbig]

Nutrition and overall health of the cow will impact whether they cycle or not.

Bulls health will determine how long and how much effort they put into the rut.

So if the long hot summer is hurting the food supply then yes it could have an impact but it is dependent on how much it impacts the health of the animal.


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[Stein]

This study talks a bit about it.  Sounds like heat is a stressor on elk along with the often accompanied drier conditions.  In some areas with real hot weather the elk actually gain weight in the winter and lose it in the summer, which I didn't realize could happen.  Other studies point to drought as correlating to calf recruitment, but I haven't seen temperature linked.

The report is looking at the impacts of human interaction, but it also notes increases in stress that are temperature (drought) caused.

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/wildlife_damage/nwrc/publications/15pubs/15-047%20washburn.pdf

I didn't see any other studies that had data related to cows completely skipping breeding cycles, but I'm not a biologist.  What is out there suggests that the timing of breeding seasons may change (earlier or later), but I didn't see anything that suggested they don't breed.