Permit quotas

[Limhangerslayer]

Facts??!! You can't handle the facts!!

Read em and weep:

Draw odds for the Peaches Rifle BULL Tag

20 points  2.43%
15 points  1.38%
10 points  0.6%
5   points  0.15%

That's 50 (statistically more) years if you have 20 points...so you got your hunter ed when you were 8...accumulated 20 YEARS of points...you would/should be 78 by the time you draw.

Have a nice day.
 

Where did you get those odds?  I'm not arguing as they sound about what I expected but I thought only GoHunt was actually calculating the true odds in WA and they haven't released theirs yet.

Last year’s application numbers by point total and this year’s permit numbers.

I'd rather you didn't post those!  Not I don't have a chance!!😂

[Stein]

Those odds are likely pretty close, but you have to also take into account that there are multiple options available per application (you can choose 1st choice, 2nd choice, etc. or just first choice).

[Karl Blanchard]

You know there is a real problem with elk management when Karl cares enough to get involved with the management of such a stinky, overrated species.

ahahahaha!!!!! I wish they would all die off so the deer could thrive more sir

But seriously, I'm wanting more info because I think this is a knee jerk cut due to poor counts.  I'm by no means an expert but I do trump around in the woods a bit.  25 years of chasing elk in my back yard I feel like I have a decent feel on the elk around these parts.

[Mr Mykiss]

Those odds are likely pretty close, but you have to also take into account that there are multiple options available per application (you can choose 1st choice, 2nd choice, etc. or just first choice).

Sure. You want the true odds do em. you'll never get em because you don't know how many people will apply with what points, how many will apply as a group, how big the groups are, etc. The spread of your numbers and mine will be well within what would be my std error given the variability in the actual application numbers, ~0.25ish at the top end of point totals and decreasing significantly as point totals decrease.

[Stein]

You know there is a real problem with elk management when Karl cares enough to get involved with the management of such a stinky, overrated species.

ahahahaha!!!!! I wish they would all die off so the deer could thrive more sir

But seriously, I'm wanting more info because I think this is a knee jerk cut due to poor counts.  I'm by no means an expert but I do trump around in the woods a bit.  25 years of chasing elk in my back yard I feel like I have a decent feel on the elk around these parts.

Sounds like a reasonable possibility.  Hopefully you get a bunch of info on what they did and what they are seeing that wasn't included in the ppt.  One would hope they dug a bit deeper before cutting tags 70+% and it wasn't just a knee jerk reaction.

[jstone]

It’s all a quick reaction. Same with giving out the mass cow tags a few years ago. Then oh crap what happened. There is no thought and plan on how to manage. Mass tags, no tags. Mass tags no tags. And repeat

[HoofsandWings]

If you apply as a group, don't apply for a hunt with only 1 permit.
Also, with all of the whining I see here, won't deter you from applying for a permit.
If odds were the reason, then you should stay away from all lottery offerings, especially those like powerball.
Also avoid all raffles.

I can think of only one sure thing that you can bet on. There is a 100% chance that you will die.

[dreamingbig]

You know there is a real problem with elk management when Karl cares enough to get involved with the management of such a stinky, overrated species.

ahahahaha!!!!! I wish they would all die off so the deer could thrive more sir

But seriously, I'm wanting more info because I think this is a knee jerk cut due to poor counts.  I'm by no means an expert but I do trump around in the woods a bit.  25 years of chasing elk in my back yard I feel like I have a decent feel on the elk around these parts.

Exactly.  My years of trail cams in Yakima units don’t portray the disaster that these permit reductions imply.


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[bobcat]

Could it be that the intention is to save more of the mature bulls for the Yakamas, so they have more jerky to sell?

[dreamingbig]

Could it be that the intention is to save more of the mature bulls for the Yakamas, so they have more jerky to sell?

I wouldn’t past the committee to make changes to please/satisfy a certain tribe.

Unfortunately I doubt my kids (under 10) will ever get to hunt this state as adults.


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[Johnny Doe]

Those odds are likely pretty close, but you have to also take into account that there are multiple options available per application (you can choose 1st choice, 2nd choice, etc. or just first choice).

Sure. You want the true odds do em. you'll never get em because you don't know how many people will apply with what points, how many will apply as a group, how big the groups are, etc. The spread of your numbers and mine will be well within what would be my std error given the variability in the actual application numbers, ~0.25ish at the top end of point totals and decreasing significantly as point totals decrease.

 

[kselkhunter]

Interesting read on the survey results, sightability models used, data and research sighted, etc.   In some cases they admit where they don't have survey data and why. Doesn't include the 2018 data as that report hasn't been formally published yet, but gives a glimpse into the methods used.  But some of the herds were showing trouble signs the previous years.  It covers all species and regions, so it's a 398 page report.  But there is a table of contents making it easier to find the elk info. 

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/02058/wdfw02058.pdf

[Stein]

Those odds are likely pretty close, but you have to also take into account that there are multiple options available per application (you can choose 1st choice, 2nd choice, etc. or just first choice).

Sure. You want the true odds do em. you'll never get em because you don't know how many people will apply with what points, how many will apply as a group, how big the groups are, etc. The spread of your numbers and mine will be well within what would be my std error given the variability in the actual application numbers, ~0.25ish at the top end of point totals and decreasing significantly as point totals decrease.

 

GoHunt is publishing odds towards the end of the month.  I was interested if there was any other service putting out good odds, but apparently I hit a nerve.

[trophyhunt]

Could it be that the intention is to save more of the mature bulls for the Yakamas, so they have more jerky to sell?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=elk+jerky+whitefoot&view=detail&mid=46F46EF06425AF6A29AE46F46EF06425AF6A29AE&FORM=VIRE

[dvolmer]

Could it be that the intention is to save more of the mature bulls for the Yakamas, so they have more jerky to sell?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=elk+jerky+whitefoot&view=detail&mid=46F46EF06425AF6A29AE46F46EF06425AF6A29AE&FORM=VIRE

Oh how I wish I hadn't watched this video!!!!  Just really pushes me over the edge!  Other than his hair is dark, he looks absolutely zero % native!!!  right off of Duck Dynasty!!!  We are definitely at the beginning of the end!