The chance at a chance (drawing odds/%)

[Mr Mykiss]

I was told by a warden once that "you pay for the opportunity". I believe this is true, however in Washington I believe that many of us are able to swallow spike only seasons/areas because we strongly believe that our time will come and we will be SELECTED one day for an opportunity at a branch antlered bull tag. I think that's why people are so upset by the recent permit quotas...now it appears that the the "chance at a chance" is so minimal that almost all hope is lost. e.g. a person with max points who has waited 20+ years to see "selected" may in fact have to wait another 50 years for that opportunity. Anyway, I started looking specifically at the Peaches rifle "BULL" tag back in 2017 because I figured that since it had 110 tags that it was one of the "easy" tags to draw. I give you the odds of drawing 2017-2019.
       
         2806 Peaches Ridge Rifle
                  2017 (110)     2018 (61)         2019 (13)
20 points    25.53%           12.1%               2.43%
15 points    14.36%             7.0%               1.38%
10 points     6.38%              3.2%               0.6%
5   points     1.59%              0.8%               0.15%

**Tag numbers in parenthesis

[blackpowderhunter]

[boneaddict]

Meanwhile Tribal hunters can go play whack a bull at will.   Ever wonder why there might be animosity.

[Stein]

Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?

I have been looking at the archery and muzzie odds in that unit (quality).  I did draw the rifle tag and had a great hunt.  Not 2% draw odds great, but a good hunt none the less.

[Mr Mykiss]

Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?

If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?

[HntnFsh]

Much less tags allowed. Much lower odds.

[Pegasus]

Did you adjust for the change in tag numbers between 2018 and 2019?

If I didn’t adjust the tag numbers why would the odds have changed?

Your assumptions are all wrong cuz after listening to all the griping and how everyone is going to hunt out of state there should only be four people applying for the hunt this year.

[slowhand]

tag

[Ridgerunner]

Its pretty depressing actually.  I don't know what else to say really. 

Been playing the point game across multiple states for almost 25 years, I've had some amazing hunts during that time but the current direction of things is the wrong way for sure.  Not just WA but across the west, more and more folks playing the game and fewer and fewer tags...........

[bowhunterforever]

Tag

[vandeman17]

Its pretty depressing actually.  I don't know what else to say really. 

Been playing the point game across multiple states for almost 25 years, I've had some amazing hunts during that time but the current direction of things is the wrong way for sure.  Not just WA but across the west, more and more folks playing the game and fewer and fewer tags...........

   We complain about WA but many other states are getting harder and harder to draw permits. The benefit many of them have and the reason I go elsewhere is that their OTC hunts can be and are often just as good if not better than many of WA's quality tags. 

[slowhand]

Its pretty depressing actually.  I don't know what else to say really. 

Been playing the point game across multiple states for almost 25 years, I've had some amazing hunts during that time but the current direction of things is the wrong way for sure.  Not just WA but across the west, more and more folks playing the game and fewer and fewer tags...........

   We complain about WA but many other states are getting harder and harder to draw permits. The benefit many of them have and the reason I go elsewhere is that their OTC hunts can be and are often just as good if not better than many of WA's quality tags. 

Good point. Never thought of it like that.

[brew]

I don't have a degree in statistics but am smart enough to know if you don't apply your chances are 0%.  Not trying to be "that guy" but in 2006 I applied for a special hunt moose permit with 1 point and got drawn. it can be done

[Dan-o]

I don't have a degree in statistics but am smart enough to know if you don't apply your chances are 0%.  Not trying to be "that guy" but in 2006 I applied for a special hunt moose permit with 1 point and got drawn. it can be done

You!

It was YOU!!!!

YOU are the one that got my moose tag!!!

I knew it......

[Bullkllr]

Chances in 2019 are only 10%... 1-tenth... of what they were 2 years ago.

How

much

lower

can

it

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