"points" is there really a point

[jeffitz]

Age 43 - First choice Quality is the Rut rifle Goose Prairie permit- 2nd choice Little Naches Rut rifle- this is one reason i have high points cuz i always apply for the most difficult draws- There might be better permits to draw than these but i know the area a little bit so...

[wooltie]

In washington points arent the issue the issue is categories and the ability to have multiple applications across every permitted species. Though I would strongly support having no points at all.

With a finite amount of available permits there should be a more discerning amount of options available.

We enjoy OTC Cougar, Bear, Deer and Elk so IMO there is no reason to have such a broad application system.

There are roughly 24,000 deer, elk, moose, sheep and goat permits issued every year and there is roughly 50,000 (probably less) people applying for them. Simply changing the application to 1 species and 1 or 2 options would drastically increase odd of people drawing permits they really want because they would have to be more discerning about their applications.

No one wants to make a choice, instead they want their cake and eat it too... and WDFW wants revenue so our current system is a win win. 

This was my thinking as well.

What if people could apply points only to as many permits/draws each year, but each person could only use those points on one or two permits/draws per year?  Like said, each person would have to choose which hunts they want to actually apply for on a given year, then pay $ to accumulate points in other hunts.  Might increase the chances of actually drawing because fewer people could apply for a given hunt each year.  You could be the guy applying with 15 points while the other applicants have 5-10 points or less, and the quantity of applicants is capped to ensure that the higher point applicants have a greater %.  Could backfire if all applicants have more equal points.

Could be that you just happen to apply during a given year where the other applicants have significant fewer points than you do, effectively increasing your chances of drawing.  It could also be the case where you draw with historically fewer points simply because the other applicants had fewer points than you did for that year's draw.

Or, end result is you might not get drawn while paying $ to accumulate points.

Isn't that the case now though LOL?

[slowhand]

Age 43 - First choice Quality is the Rut rifle Goose Prairie permit- 2nd choice Little Naches Rut rifle- this is one reason i have high points cuz i always apply for the most difficult draws- There might be better permits to draw than these but i know the area a little bit so...

Those are both great tags and areas. I have hunted both many times and seen tons of elk.
Once had a 6x6 at 20yard while bow hunting, no bull tag so I just watched him.
I wish You luck, those are very hard tags to get.
I pulled a peaches bull rifle tag years ago. Hunted hard for over a week. I had three good chances just didn't come together. I took a couple years off in complete disgust after.
I truly can't describe the feelings I had driving home after working that hard and coming up empty handed.
Now I look back at it as by far my all time favorite hunting experience.
I do feel guilty for spending one entire day just watching and following a large group of mountain goats. I was so amazed with them I totally forgot I had a fancy bull tag and was hunting. I felt like I was in a national geographic episode watching the little ones play and but heads. I think I counted 12 goats total.
If your at such a high points number have you never drawn a bull or quality tag?
or any special permit?
 

[X-Force]

Age 43 - First choice Quality is the Rut rifle Goose Prairie permit- 2nd choice Little Naches Rut rifle- this is one reason i have high points cuz i always apply for the most difficult draws- There might be better permits to draw than these but i know the area a little bit so...

How many points?

[jeffitz]

Ive drawn 3 Cow permits over the years and two Buck permits but never a Bull/Quality Bull - got to help a buddy a couple years ago get his Goose P 6X6- awesome times.

[D-Rock425]

When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.

[Woodchuck]

When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.

I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools. 

[BULLBLASTER]

 

When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.

I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools. 

[Stein]

Yeah, it made all tags harder to draw but did increase permit revenue by several fold.

[Woodchuck]

Yeah, it made all tags harder to draw but did increase permit revenue by several fold.

Which was the real goal IMHO.

[D-Rock425]

When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.

I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools. 

I drew deer and elk in 09 and started new system with zero points.

[slowhand]

When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.

I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools. 

I drew deer and elk in 09 and started new system with zero points.

Ouch! talk about worst case. I only had 3 at that time.

[7mmfan]

Since I started applying religiously I’ve drawn 1 cow tag, 2 bull tags, a quality bull tag and a 2nd deer tag. My dad has drawn 3 cow tags, 1 bull tag, and a buck tag, and a friend of mine has drawn 1 bull tag, 2 cow tags, and 2 quality buck tags. We all started about the same time, so similar point totals. The long and short is just apply for what interests you and hope you get it. Points have little bearing on whether you’re drawn or not. Case in point, my quality bull tag was drawn on 5 points, and a friend applied for the same tag with 23. He didn’t get it. My buddy that’s drawn 2 quality buck tags did so with less than 5 points each time. Just apply and hope.

[Woodchuck]

When the application system changed in 2010 it made drawing "quality" tags tougher I believe.

I think it made all permits harder to draw, it allowed for everyone to get into all pools without risk of losing points in "premium" pools. 

I drew deer and elk in 09 and started new system with zero points.

Ouch! talk about worst case. I only had 3 at that time.

I drew elk in 09. 

[SteelheadTed]

Since I started applying religiously I’ve drawn 1 cow tag, 2 bull tags, a quality bull tag and a 2nd deer tag. My dad has drawn 3 cow tags, 1 bull tag, and a buck tag, and a friend of mine has drawn 1 bull tag, 2 cow tags, and 2 quality buck tags. We all started about the same time, so similar point totals. The long and short is just apply for what interests you and hope you get it. Points have little bearing on whether you’re drawn or not. Case in point, my quality bull tag was drawn on 5 points, and a friend applied for the same tag with 23. He didn’t get it. My buddy that’s drawn 2 quality buck tags did so with less than 5 points each time. Just apply and hope.

Let me try with an analogy.  If you had to roll a six with a dice would you rather have 23 chances to do it or 5?  Of course you'd rather have 23 chances and that is why points do mater, it gives you more chances to draw a tag.

When dealing with probabilities you can't take two cases as you have above to prove that points don't matter.  That isn't at all how the draw works or how probability works in general. 

There seems to be a general lack of awareness of how probability works in this thread.