Raffle permit numbers.

[Bushcraft]

They should do away with the hybrid auction/raffle.

Why?

For a variety of reasons, first I am not a fan of commercialization of wildlife.  It's a shared resource owned by the people in accordance with the north American model of wildlife management. Second I  will caveat my all out opposition with a low level of support IF they capped the number one person can purchase.
What is the intent of the hybrid raffle? To generate revenue? Well look at the averages over an extended period of time and cross reference them to the auction (do you see maximum roi).  Now the idea that any average citizen can win, this is absolutely true but statistically unlikely. If you believe in luck your odds are far better in Vegas slot machines than these "raffles". Sometimes Mr. Big loses ( i.e. you) and that's part of the game, that said if you ran the same drawing that you lost repeatedly you would eventually have won 70+% of the time.  (I'll write a little more when I get time)
Lastly, whether you agree with them or not, and with the long odds created by people "flooding" the raffles there is still tremendous value in playing the game.  (I'll expand on this as will if time allows) Go buy a few tickets if you have the extra funds.

Not a fan of commercialization of wildlife??? You do buy a license and tags every year, right? Would you prefer that you not have to buy one to participate? 

The bottom line with the raffle is that everyone...let me repeat...everyone that is willing to buy a raffle ticket (or a special hunt permit application for that matter) will buy one for exactly the very reason that people play the lottery: It's a chance that costs next to nothing for a potentially massive live-changing Powerball payout.

What you and I presume others that share your view are missing is that, much like the special hunt permit applications, the number of people that play the raffle already account for nearly all of the number of people that are willing to participate. That number is essentially largely static as a percentage of hunters.  And, that static percentage of hunters are not going to triple, or 10x or 30x the number of raffle tickets they are willing to buy.  Think about it, if you go all in for all the raffle tickets, I think is north of $125 these days. Having been to, and run, a TON of wildlife conservation fundraisers, I can tell you that most hunters simply will not fork out that kind of dough, for budgetary constraints or whatever the reason.

If you cap an individual's participation rate to only a few tickets, the number of Mr. Bigs and the tens of thousands of dollars they are be willing to shovel into the raffles every year for the chance to win would dry up faster than a piss puddle in Death Valley in the middle of August.  Whoops! That is a tremendous amount of lost revenue.  There goes the "commercialized" proceeds that WDFW would have otherwise been able to be put to work for the stewardship of wild places and wild things.  Bummer.

The unintended consequences of not critically thinking through things is a bitch.

[Tbar]

They should do away with the hybrid auction/raffle.

Why?

For a variety of reasons, first I am not a fan of commercialization of wildlife.  It's a shared resource owned by the people in accordance with the north American model of wildlife management. Second I  will caveat my all out opposition with a low level of support IF they capped the number one person can purchase.
What is the intent of the hybrid raffle? To generate revenue? Well look at the averages over an extended period of time and cross reference them to the auction (do you see maximum roi).  Now the idea that any average citizen can win, this is absolutely true but statistically unlikely. If you believe in luck your odds are far better in Vegas slot machines than these "raffles". Sometimes Mr. Big loses ( i.e. you) and that's part of the game, that said if you ran the same drawing that you lost repeatedly you would eventually have won 70+% of the time.  (I'll write a little more when I get time)
Lastly, whether you agree with them or not, and with the long odds created by people "flooding" the raffles there is still tremendous value in playing the game.  (I'll expand on this as will if time allows) Go buy a few tickets if you have the extra funds.

Not a fan of commercialization of wildlife??? You do buy a license and tags every year, right? Would you prefer that you not have to buy one to participate? 

The bottom line with the raffle is that everyone...let me repeat...everyone that is willing to buy a raffle ticket (or a special hunt permit application for that matter) will buy one for exactly the very reason that people play the lottery: It's a chance that costs next to nothing for a potentially massive live-changing Powerball payout.

What you and I presume others that share your view are missing is that, much like the special hunt permit applications, the number of people that play the raffle already account for nearly all of the number of people that are willing to participate. That number is essentially largely static as a percentage of hunters.  And, that static percentage of hunters are not going to triple, or 10x or 30x the number of raffle tickets they are willing to buy.  Think about it, if you go all in for all the raffle tickets, I think is north of $125 these days. Having been to, and run, a TON of wildlife conservation fundraisers, I can tell you that most hunters simply will not fork out that kind of dough, for budgetary constraints or whatever the reason.

If you cap an individual's participation rate to only a few tickets, the number of Mr. Bigs and the tens of thousands of dollars they are be willing to shovel into the raffles every year for the chance to win would dry up faster than a piss puddle in Death Valley in the middle of August.  Whoops! That is a tremendous amount of lost revenue.  There goes the "commercialized" proceeds that WDFW would have otherwise been able to be put to work for the stewardship of wild places and wild things.  Bummer.

The unintended consequences of not critically thinking through things is a bitch.

Your hypothetical self serving ideas are amazing! Just like your goat raffle flooded topic, self serving and an attempt to dissuade people from playing the game.  Irony in the results and your subsequent temper tantrum on statistics. 

[Bushcraft]

They should do away with the hybrid auction/raffle.

Why?

For a variety of reasons, first I am not a fan of commercialization of wildlife.  It's a shared resource owned by the people in accordance with the north American model of wildlife management. Second I  will caveat my all out opposition with a low level of support IF they capped the number one person can purchase.
What is the intent of the hybrid raffle? To generate revenue? Well look at the averages over an extended period of time and cross reference them to the auction (do you see maximum roi).  Now the idea that any average citizen can win, this is absolutely true but statistically unlikely. If you believe in luck your odds are far better in Vegas slot machines than these "raffles". Sometimes Mr. Big loses ( i.e. you) and that's part of the game, that said if you ran the same drawing that you lost repeatedly you would eventually have won 70+% of the time.  (I'll write a little more when I get time)
Lastly, whether you agree with them or not, and with the long odds created by people "flooding" the raffles there is still tremendous value in playing the game.  (I'll expand on this as will if time allows) Go buy a few tickets if you have the extra funds.

Not a fan of commercialization of wildlife??? You do buy a license and tags every year, right? Would you prefer that you not have to buy one to participate? 

The bottom line with the raffle is that everyone...let me repeat...everyone that is willing to buy a raffle ticket (or a special hunt permit application for that matter) will buy one for exactly the very reason that people play the lottery: It's a chance that costs next to nothing for a potentially massive live-changing Powerball payout.

What you and I presume others that share your view are missing is that, much like the special hunt permit applications, the number of people that play the raffle already account for nearly all of the number of people that are willing to participate. That number is essentially largely static as a percentage of hunters.  And, that static percentage of hunters are not going to triple, or 10x or 30x the number of raffle tickets they are willing to buy.  Think about it, if you go all in for all the raffle tickets, I think is north of $125 these days. Having been to, and run, a TON of wildlife conservation fundraisers, I can tell you that most hunters simply will not fork out that kind of dough, for budgetary constraints or whatever the reason.

If you cap an individual's participation rate to only a few tickets, the number of Mr. Bigs and the tens of thousands of dollars they are be willing to shovel into the raffles every year for the chance to win would dry up faster than a piss puddle in Death Valley in the middle of August.  Whoops! That is a tremendous amount of lost revenue.  There goes the "commercialized" proceeds that WDFW would have otherwise been able to be put to work for the stewardship of wild places and wild things.  Bummer.

The unintended consequences of not critically thinking through things is a bitch.

Your hypothetical self serving ideas are amazing! Just like your goat raffle flooded topic, self serving and an attempt to dissuade people from playing the game.  Irony in the results and your subsequent temper tantrum on statistics.

Happy to so easily amaze you Tbar.

As an aside, I recall reading somewhere that easily amazed people generally have lower IQ's.  Not surprisingly, they also have a strong tendency to come to easily refuted conclusions that have big, giant, utterly obvious, gaping holes in their dimly thought-through calculus.  Not suggesting that you have a low IQ of course, but I digress.

Anyway, it's been years since I ate my goat raffle tag crow.  But, by all means, keep on crowing away anonymously from the cheap seats.  Sprinkle some Envy Butter and Jealousy Salt on that popcorn while you're at it. 

[Tbar]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw. 

[Bushcraft]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

[Tbar]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

You will be apologetic for this exchange.  I hope you stand behind your words as they are memorialized.  This is by no means a threat just know our paths will certainly cross.  The stage is not always huntwa. 

[X-Force]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

You will be apologetic for this exchange.  I hope you stand behind your words as they are memorialized.  This is by no means a threat just know our paths will certainly cross.  The stage is not always huntwa.

Where should his concern lie? His accusation on your IQ or that raffle odds are better than draw odds?

[trophyhunt]

Tbar, as a tribal member, why do you even care about the raffles?

[Tbar]

Tbar, as a tribal member, why do you even care about the raffles?

I care about many things that aren't exclusive to tribal/ non tribal.  I also realize that my voice and impact has minimal effect on wildlife management and truly care that the hunting tradition and culture carries on regardless of which side you are on. Therefore I care about deviations from the model.  The further we distance ourselves from that the easier it'll be to end or severely limit hunting in this state, which we negatively impact all consumptive users. 

[trophyhunt]

Tbar, as a tribal member, why do you even care about the raffles?

I care about many things that aren't exclusive to tribal/ non tribal.  I also realize that my voice and impact has minimal effect on wildlife management and truly care that the hunting tradition and culture carries on regardless of which side you are on. Therefore I care about deviations from the model.  The further we distance ourselves from that the easier it'll be to end or severely limit hunting in this state, which we negatively impact all consumptive users.

ok, I can respect that. Thanks

[idaho guy]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

You will be apologetic for this exchange.  I hope you stand behind your words as they are memorialized.  This is by no means a threat just know our paths will certainly cross.  The stage is not always huntwa.

Where should his concern lie? His accusation on your IQ or that raffle odds are better than draw odds?

     

  I don’t get it? Apologize for the Statement of fact that odds are better?

[jackelope]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

You will be apologetic for this exchange.  I hope you stand behind your words as they are memorialized.  This is by no means a threat just know our paths will certainly cross.  The stage is not always huntwa.

Where should his concern lie? His accusation on your IQ or that raffle odds are better than draw odds?

     

  I don’t get it? Apologize for the Statement of fact that odds are better?

Maybe the part about the man’s IQ?

[idaho guy]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

You will be apologetic for this exchange.  I hope you stand behind your words as they are memorialized.  This is by no means a threat just know our paths will certainly cross.  The stage is not always huntwa.

Where should his concern lie? His accusation on your IQ or that raffle odds are better than draw odds?

     

  I don’t get it? Apologize for the Statement of fact that odds are better?

Maybe the part about the man’s IQ?

Ok that makes sense I might be s little low on the IQ tonight 

[Bushcraft]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

You will be apologetic for this exchange.  I hope you stand behind your words as they are memorialized.  This is by no means a threat just know our paths will certainly cross.  The stage is not always huntwa.

Tbar,

I'm quick to apologize when it's warranted.

I spelled the facts of the matter out for you. Instead of coming up with a solid rebuttal you evidently thought it was easier to pick at a goat raffle scab that I've long since forgotten about.  Seriously, it's water under the bridge dude.

Anyway, if you want to publicly admit to having a low IQ like you did AND make anonymous thinly veiled threats about our paths crossing (and you're not anonymous BTW), then that's on you. Memorialize away.

In the meantime, and until the math indicates otherwise, I agree with you that there is no question that the odds are generally better in the raffle than they are in the general draw (special hunter permit applications).

Tbar, as a tribal member, why do you even care about the raffles?

I care about many things that aren't exclusive to tribal/ non tribal.  I also realize that my voice and impact has minimal effect on wildlife management and truly care that the hunting tradition and culture carries on regardless of which side you are on. Therefore I care about deviations from the model.  The further we distance ourselves from that the easier it'll be to end or severely limit hunting in this state, which we negatively impact all consumptive users. 

I respect that point of view as well. Absolutely.

What I don't have a whole lot of time or respect for are anonymous online forum posters that make thinly veiled threats.

Tbar, My name is Allen Ernst. My cell phone is 206-229-2519.  I'm happy take your call tomorrow so we can arrange mutually agreeable time and place to sit down face-to-face and have a frank conversation about what we might agree or disagree on.  I doubt you'll be able to change my mind when it comes to the need to dramatically improve the management of, and methods of funding for, wildlife conservation/management in this state and beyond, but I'm open to hearing smart ideas that can be put to work.

[Tbar]

Openly admit I  have a low IQ ( ). Back on topic let's get down to raffle numbers.  They give an average joe a better than average chance to draw when compared to the general draw.

No question.

You will be apologetic for this exchange.  I hope you stand behind your words as they are memorialized.  This is by no means a threat just know our paths will certainly cross.  The stage is not always huntwa.

Tbar,

I'm quick to apologize when it's warranted.

I spelled the facts of the matter out for you. Instead of coming up with a solid rebuttal you evidently thought it was easier to pick at a goat raffle scab that I've long since forgotten about.  Seriously, it's water under the bridge dude.

Anyway, if you want to publicly admit to having a low IQ like you did AND make anonymous thinly veiled threats about our paths crossing (and you're not anonymous BTW), then that's on you. Memorialize away.

In the meantime, and until the math indicates otherwise, I agree with you that there is no question that the odds are generally better in the raffle than they are in the general draw (special hunter permit applications).

Tbar, as a tribal member, why do you even care about the raffles?

I care about many things that aren't exclusive to tribal/ non tribal.  I also realize that my voice and impact has minimal effect on wildlife management and truly care that the hunting tradition and culture carries on regardless of which side you are on. Therefore I care about deviations from the model.  The further we distance ourselves from that the easier it'll be to end or severely limit hunting in this state, which we negatively impact all consumptive users. 

I respect that point of view as well. Absolutely.

What I don't have a whole lot of time or respect for are anonymous online forum posters that make thinly veiled threats.

Tbar, My name is Allen Ernst. My cell phone is 206-229-2519.  I'm happy take your call tomorrow so we can arrange mutually agreeable time and place to sit down face-to-face and have a frank conversation about what we might agree or disagree on.  I doubt you'll be able to change my mind when it comes to the need to dramatically improve the management of, and methods of funding for, wildlife conservation/management in this state and beyond, but I'm open to hearing smart ideas that can be put to work.

You know our paths will cross (again). You have alienated an ally,  just a fact. No need to call or sit down.  You do your best to represent your constituents and I will do likewise regardless of the stage.