Draw Question

[CP]

The far right column in the hunt choice table lists the number of 2008 Apps.  Does anyone know if this is the total number of applicants for that hunt or the total number of applicant’s points for that unit?

I’m trying to guess at my odds for being drawn, they are slim, just wondering how slim.

[huntnphool]

Number of applicants

[CP]

Thanks.  That makes the odds slim to none.

[Pathfinder101]

The far right column in the hunt choice table lists the number of 2008 Apps.  Does anyone know if this is the total number of applicants for that hunt or the total number of applicant’s points for that unit?

I’m trying to guess at my odds for being drawn, they are slim, just wondering how slim.

But on the bright side CPHunter, since you are only 1 year old , if you start putting in this year, by the time you pass hunter's safety you will probably get drawn for a quality deer tag, and branched antler bull before you graduate high school.  You will still never get drawn for a sheep tag though.... sorry.

[huntnphool]

Actually PF there is no min age requirement to take the test, you must simply be able to pass the test on your own, so since he can read and write at 1 he can still take it.

[videoman]

But the recoil of a 300 Win Mag at the age of 1 would probably leave a mark

[NRA4LIFE]

Is that number the total number of applicants (all choices) or the total # of first choice applicants?

[jackelope]

with so many variables, is it really possible to predict odds accurately for wa. state?
there's a link floating around here somewhere that gives the average #of points people had to draw each tag. thats a good thing to look at. i'll see if i can find it.

[HuntingFanatic]

with so many variables, is it really possible to predict odds accurately for wa. state?
there's a link floating around here somewhere that gives the average #of points people had to draw each tag. thats a good thing to look at. i'll see if i can find it.

You find it yet?

[jackelope]

no. if bobcat comes on here, he has it.
i'm still looking.

[Pathfinder101]

Actually PF there is no min age requirement to take the test, you must simply be able to pass the test on your own, so since he can read and write at 1 he can still take it.

You are right Phool, we would let him in to take the written portion, but I am not optimistic about his chances on the field handling section.  I have a 1 year old, he can barely clear the chamber and can only demonstate 2 of the carrying positions...

[huntnphool]

You gonna take that crap CP?

[Pathfinder101]

You gonna take that crap CP?

c'mon Phool... He's 1 year old.  What's he gonna do...?

[CP]

Boy, you go away for a few hours and you get all kinds of crap. 

I should take one of those hunter's safety classes though some day, when I grow up.

[bobcat]

no. if bobcat comes on here, he has it.
i'm still looking.

Oh, just saw this...must be why "Jerome" PM'd me and asked for a link. All you have to do is go to the WDFW site and it's right there, but here you go:

  http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/hunter/specperm/


And, there is no way to predict odds of drawing. Not when everybody has the option of putting down 4 choices and there's no way of knowing how many points each applicant has. All you can do is what I do and divide the number of applicants by the number of permits and write it all down. This number won't be the actual odds but is a way to compare.

[snag_point]

Hi,
New to this site, but not to WA state hunting.  You think that it is hard to draw, What you don't realize is that  many of the tags that are drawn are the result of extra points rewarded to hunters that got them by turning in another hunter on a violation.  When I got my cougar sealed this March a bio told me that in one on the trophy bull elk units in the Blues, only one hunter had gotten the draw the old fashion way.  All the other tags drawn where from awarded Pts.  Award hunters with $$$$ but not pts.  Your chances of getting that wonderful once in maybe 10 or so years, has gotten a heck of a lot  harder.  If you know how the game is played you can beat the  system  and get drawn for trophy hunts. And that fellow hunters is WRONG.
Snag point

[jason4429]

I have heard that the anti-pukes also apply for tags .

[Crunchy]

I have heard that the anti-pukes also apply for tags .

Now that would suck.  Just imagine how bad they could make it.

[Pathfinder101]

Don't worry, most of them don't really have jobs and can't afford to apply...

[Skyvalhunter]

Why do you think you have to buy a license before putting in for a special permit. Most "anti's" wont fork out the money so u are talking very few.

[7mag.]

I have heard that the anti-pukes also apply for tags .

Anybody that would go through that much trouble just to screw us is a sick individual with mental problems. Must be the same retards that follow armed hunters into the woods, banging pots and pans to scare the wildlife.

[GoldTip]

Don't worry, most of them don't really have jobs and can't afford to apply...

Hell, they can beg for 10 minutes on a street corner for the cost a special app in this state, it's ridiculous.  Raise the application fee and lower the number of units you can apply in and people will start drawing some tags.

[Elkaholic daWg]

The far right column in the hunt choice table lists the number of 2008 Apps.  Does anyone know if this is the total number of applicants for that hunt or the total number of applicant’s points for that unit?

I’m trying to guess at my odds for being drawn, they are slim, just wondering how slim.

 I bet WDFW gets a ton of applicants (and money) for those few 3 pt or better Whitetail tags just from those who would love to get an extra weekend in the NE late hunt. 

[MIKEXRAY]

To answer your question on odds, they don't seem as bleak as they really are. The number on the right is number of hunters who put in for that hunt total. Most of those numbers are peoples 2nd, 3rd & 4th choices. If another person gets selected , they see if his first choice is open & if it is then his other choices don't matter but are still reflected in those numbers. To give you an example: I bow hunt & the area I chose has about a 100 permits. Over a 1000 people apply and you would assume it would take about ten years to draw. Yet I draw this permit every 2 or 3 years over the last ten years. ( 3 draws in ten years ). The reason is its mostly other peoples 3rd or 4th choice but my first choice. I called the state & he informed me that I wasn't the luckiest dude in the state but that my area, as first choice was a " three year area for drawing ". Now if you pick an area that has all first choices for all hunters, then you will wait those ten years or get lucky. Make sense ? Thats how it was explained to me anyway. I only put in for one hunt choice, in an area that is good but not the most desired & my number comes up plenty. My  Mike.

[bobcat]

I'd say what Mike is saying is pretty much right on. And also due to that same theory, the most popular permits may be even harder to draw than it might appear just by looking at the number of permits versus the number of applicants. This is because the majority of the applicants for that permit will have it as a number one choice, AND a high percentage of those applicants probably also have a high number of points.

[WDFW-SUX]

Nevada uses the same draw system that we have and is able to give exact draw % for all hunts and is also able to give a break down of all of the point pools........

WFDW was running the draw and didnt know how many applicants were in it as of three years ago...........so it was impossible to tell if it was done correctly

[B.G.hunter]

cp it took an average of 3.90 points to draw the aladdin tag last year if you want to find all the draw odds the link is wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/hunter/specperm/index.htm then just click on the species you want and all the draw info is there.

[tony04]

this is my first year for putting in for special permits. both deer and elk. has anyone ever drawn a tag with 0 points?

[Ray]

You will have one point. Not zero. You will have a slim chance to draw something. Try for antlerless or any deer/elk if it interests you.

[tony04]

ok cool. thank thanks ray.

[B.G.hunter]

tony washington uses a point multiplier system so if you have never put in you will have 1 point and 1 ticket in the drawing, if you have 2 you get 4 in the drawing, 3 you will get 9 tickets, 4 you will get 16 tickets and so on.

[tony04]

ohh ok. man, i wish i would have started putting in for permits years ago

[Bob33]

Washington's system allows four hunt choices.  When an applicant's name is drawn, the computer checks each of the four choices in order.  First choice: is a tag available?  If yes, allocate a permit .  If not, check the second choice: is a tag available? If yes, allocate a permit.  This process continues through all hunt choices.

If someone applies for four hunt choices, he will appear as an applicant for each of the four hunts.  However, if he is drawn on my first choice, he is obviously out of the running for the second through fourth choices.  If you read the reports you can see the number of applicants "drawn for another hunt".

As noted Washington squares the number of points, which gives applicants with more points exponentially greater chances of being drawn. An applicant with four points has 4x6 (16) names in the hat.  An applicant with 10 points has 100 names in the hat.

You can draw the first year with 1 point.  You just typically have a lower chance than someone with more points, depending on the hunt.   There are some hunts with fewer applicants than permits, so you have a 100% chance regardless of points.

The number that is missing is the average number of points for all applicants for a particular hunt.

[buckhorn2]

If you put in for 4 choices and get drawn for the say 3rd choice do you lose all your points or do you lose your points only if you get drawn for your first choice.

[bobcat]

You lose your points if drawn for any of your choices, so don't apply for any hunt that you don't REALLY want.

[Red Dawg]

we are not like wyoming or oregon. If you get drawn for anything you loose your points. I wish we would go to a preference point system.

[B.G.hunter]

that's why i think washington should change it to 2 choices instead of 4. i am constantly talking to people who have drawn an area and they have no idea how or where to hunt.  they are taking good tags away from people who are trying to draw them with little or no success over many years.  leaving the people who drew the tag unhappy because they had a poor quality of hunt.

[Slider]

bob33 you have a typo!!!

 An applicant with four points has 4x6 (16) names in the hat.  An applicant with 10 points has 100 names in the hat.

It should be  4x4 is 16 chances.

[bobcat]

Slider,

I noticed that too, but he still got the right answer.

[7mag.]

Slider,

I noticed that too, but he still got the right answer.

I hated showing my work in school. As long as I got the right answer, who cares how I got there? 

[Up a Creek]

I think it would be better if we awarded extra tags like the ones given to hunter ed instructors for people who turn in poachers. I know of a guide who got his 10 points from turning someone in and drew the Little Natchees 2 times in 4 years it really does make it much harder for the average Joe hunter to draw good hunts.