Less mountain goat tags coming?

[sagemd]

To say WDfW is doing the best they can with resources available.
Then to say they can and have used volunteers.
Is a contradiction.

I appears they are going to cut tag numbers without doing a through boots on the ground count.
Even when they have a tool to do so.

[Skyvalhunter]

Current permit levels are conservative and represent no more than four percent of mountain goat populations that are surveyed regularly and are stable or increasing. These include herds around Mt. Baker, along the lower Cascade crest, and along the north shore of Lake Chelan.
 Your question to the WDFW should then be why only 4% instead of speculating or guessing a reason.

[jstone]

What is the best time to count goats.

[sagemd]

Current permit levels are conservative and represent no more than four percent of mountain goat populations that are surveyed regularly and are stable or increasing. These include herds around Mt. Baker, along the lower Cascade crest, and along the north shore of Lake Chelan.
 Your question to the WDFW should then be why only 4% instead of speculating or guessing a reason.

What does "surveyed regularly" mean ?  Every year, two years, three years ?
I think most people who know goats in Washington, don't believe WDFW does a good survey.
And I believe most hunters think WDFW does a poor job of public relations.
So my question should be why isn't the WDFW doing a better job of managing mountain goats?
I "remember" might be wrong. (I'm old)  WDFW rules are, need to have at less 100 goats in any unit than allow for 4% tags assuming 100% harvest.
So if I'm correct than WDFW have only surveyed 100 goats in each of the goat rock's units as well as all other units issued 1 goat tag ? I've seen 100+ in the goat rock's just hiking the PCT last year.

[JimmyHoffa]

What is the best time to count goats.

I think summer time, the later part.  They move up higher and higher as the snow melts and more food becomes available and they can stay cool laying in the snow on the hotter days.  In the winter, they like to go into the trees and eat lichens and moss off the branches that break off from wind and snow.

[sagemd]

"The enchantment's study is a different animal as it was focused on overall numbers because of human conflicts, not for season setting. We all know how busy the enchantment's are and its only a matter of time before someone gets killed and those goats meet their fate."

I agree fishngamereaper.
What is happening in the Enchantment's  is what happened in the Olympics.
Goats are being allowed to overpopulate, hiker, trailer runners, horsemen, etc. are being allow to interact with wild animals. Which will only lead to problems for the goats.
People that have been in contact with lamas, horses, goats can/will bring in illness.
Feeding goat leads to nutritional problems.
Goats become aggressive, hurt humans.
When this happens the goats will be shot for helicopters. Or payed hunters on foot.
Goats left to rut/waste.
All at great expense.  Very immoral.

WDFW has the ability to work with work with the forest service.
Many opitions.
Issue tags. WDFW
Issue trail use passes. Forest service
Close trails for two weeks
Allow limited and regulated  hunting.
It was all done in the Olympics.

[Skyvalhunter]

Olympic National park where goats were not native (and Administration does not want them) vs Enchantment's wilderness area where they were. Have to be realistic.

[Skyvalhunter]

Ok since I knew no one was going to question WDFW about their goat permit allocation process I took it upon myself. I am not saying I agree or disagree with their science behind it but here is the reply I received. So take it for what it's worth. Hopefully this will answer some questions and possibly create some more.


Hi Keith,

 

I work as an Ungulate Specialist with WDFW and one of my focal species is mtn. goats. You are correct we provide guidance to our District staff to allocate goat permits for herds with population estimates of >100 adults. We monitor hunted populations with bi-annual sight-ability corrected aerial surveys. Once our population estimates are established we allow harvest rates of 4% or less, which is balance across Special Permits, Auction & Raffle tag and harvest from our Tribal co-managers.

 

The scientific work behind this management guidance results from research conducted by a former WDFW Research Scientist, Cliff Rice and was published in 2010. Cliff’s work references Hamel’s publication on harvest potential in Alberta.(Both publications attached).

 

Basically Cliff’s work used a stage-structured matrix model to evaluate harvest rates on a variety of population sizes. This work provided supporting evidence that past harvest rates were likely the cause of population declines in Washington and he investigated appropriate harvest rates suitable to maintain stable or increasing population growth. Some of the information included was:

 
•Over 4000 historic harvest records tied to 7 Washington populations of various sizes
•Vital rates estimated from multiple populations outside Washington
•Three harvest sex ratio rates (proportion of male harvested, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90)
•Actual harvest sex ratios derived from 72 goats harvested between 2002-2006 = 89% male

 

His investigation on sustainable harvest rates looked at evaluating the percent harvest on populations for selected outcomes which resulted in ≥50% probability of population stability or increase. Some of the significant findings regarding our management include:
•Findings for average vital rates, a population of 50 animals would not be expected to sustain any harvest regardless of the percent of the harvest that is male.
•For average vital rates, harvest of 4% has a probability of the population being stable or increasing ≥50% for large populations, and only if it is largely males being harvested.
•The probability of female being stable or increasing is true in population of ≥200 if the harvest in 70% male, and for population ≥100 animals if the harvest is 90% male.

 

Washington harvest has been 89% male. Data was collected from 72 goats harvested between 2002-2006. This information and the bolded finding is the research we applied to develop our management guidelines. Note that these simulations indicates stability or increases in ≥50% of the outcomes, therefore it is also specified in our Game Management Plan that we consistently monitor our hunted goat populations. Hopefully, this provides a basic summary of how we’ve developed our management guidelines for mtn. goats. If you have questions or would like to discuss this topic in more depth please feel free to call me at the number below.

 

Respectfully,

 

William

 

 

William Moore

Ungulate Specialist

Washington Dept. of Fish & Wildlife

1130 W University Way

Ellensburg, WA 98926

(509) 306-8969

[ellensburgpo]

For what it’s worth, Will Moore was one of my teachers, he is a hunter and does or at least used to spend a lot of time in the woods.

[jstone]

So late June I will be going deep into the Manson unit. Would the goats be just above the lake in the cliffs?

[Skyvalhunter]

When you say deep into the Manson unit are you meaning snow pack depending? If you go out say S. Navarre trail since its probably your way to go deepest you might hit snow or have a tough time getting to the TH. The goats will follow the snow melt alot of times. Not to say there won't be any in the lake shore cliffs but not like they are during the winter. As the summer comes on its my experience that they like to hang on the north slopes of the mtns where it's cooler and there usually is going be snow pack. 

[jackelope]

Might want to wait till late July

[Ridgerunner]

I've also spoken to Will about this and have hunted with him a long time ago, the good news is he is a hunter.  One of the main challenges that he spoke to have to do with the surveys.  The goats are good at avoiding the helicopters even when those doing the surveys know that they are in the immediate vicinity due to GPS collars. I think when we see drops in numbers it has to do with the surveys not showing the expected number of animals.  The decision is always going to be science and data driven so no matter how many observations we hunters report its going to take alot to move the needle on this one I'm afraid. 

I'd like to see a new goat area opened up that is basically from I-90 to highway 2 and encompasses the wilderness and non wilderness, maybe have highway 97 as a eastern boundary.  I'm sure that there are more than 100 goats in that area, with probably quite a few different sub herds.  It'd be nice to get some harvest going in there.  Perhaps you exclude the enchantments due to the issues that would happen there but it seems to me that there could be a few permits in all that country and the herds could manage it just fine. 

[Skyvalhunter]

I have goat hunted the 460 (highway 2 to I90) before it was a OIL permit. My dad drew the tag 3 out of 5 years in the 70's. It's not an easy area to hunt and the number of goats has definately dropped which is why I am sure they removed it from a goat hunt area. Now I can't speak for the I90 side of 460. I go out in the fall and winter and know where the goats hang out when the snowdrives them down. I am just not seeing the numbers on my side. I don't see much at all in the Chiwakums. There defiantly is some around the Robin lakes area in the summer and fall but I wouldn't say they are abundant. Never seen more than 4. Those are the people type of goats that follow you around looking for you to pee. I am sure they winter in the Salmon La Sac area.
448's population south end has dropped off significantly since the 70's however I did see 2 collared goats in it last year, maybe from the Olympics. But I don't think it warrants a permit without hurting the population. That's just my observation, I stock and survey high lakes mostly off trail so I am where they should be in my area at least.

[sagemd]

When Mr. Moore states: "We monitor hunted populations with bi-annual sight-ability corrected aerial surveys."
We know WDFW is not doing all they can. We know boots on the ground is a better way to get accurate counts. We know WDFW can and has used volunteers for these counts. But they still don't. Is it possible they are not interested in accurate counts ? Or maybe it's just easier to fly helicopters ?