Montana Deer Crowds

[dilleytech]

It'll end with an economy dip. The government handouts are gonna dry up. The artificial mortgage rates will eventually go up. The current state of affairs is unsustainable.  LESS than a decade ago idaho was having to sharply discount tags in order to sell them and you could snag a second tag from Walmart on your way to the mountains the last week of the season. A decade before that when you couldn't buy online, you better be on your game or those deer and elk tags were gone in a hot minute. We are often times very short sighted when it comes to ebs and flows of draws and tags and their correlation to the economy.

I agree. I think most people. Specially those who go out of state to hunt aren’t all that hurt financially by the last years lockdowns. And we have gotten what? 3,200$ Each from the government? Not to mention if you have kids and a lot of us refinanced our homes this year at crazy low rates. So A lot of people are buying toys, guns, and out of state tags with there extra cash. The economy most certainly will crash in 4 years or so and it will be the good ol days of hunting again. Whatever that means lol

[dvolmer]

I agree with much of what you all are saying on reasons for the increase.  I would just add another reason to the equation. I can only speak from my experience as a Washington resident and long time hunter (hunting over 40 years here), but the Washington experience has been on the decline for a long time for all kinds of reasons we all know and don't need to discuss in this thread.  But over the last 3-5 years (in my opinion) the decline here in Washington has exponentially blown out of control.  In a very short time, a lot of hunters have seen their hunting spots, land access, animals, native pressure, Predators, etc etc etc, go to hell in a handbasket.  This is another reason that the applications to these other states have increased in my opinion.  Hunters are looking for something to replace what they have lost.  Used to be a Washington Quality elk tag was something to dream about.  Now a general elk tag in Wyoming or Montana is better than most Washington Quality tags.  I think a high percentage of Montana Non-Resident hunters are residents of Washington for the above reasons noted.

[Bigshooter]

Tags and the economy have always been linked together for all my years of out of state hunting.  Applications always go up when the economy is strong and applications always go down when the economy goes down. I would expect this to continue. 

[kselkhunter]

There is also the fact people are tired of being cooped up with the lockdowns and limitations of the past 12 months, and if they
have money to spend on out of state hunts they're going to.  Oregon saw a 37% increase last month in spring bear applications.  Idaho OTC tags moved quickly once the process opened.  I think this spring we see significant increases in various western states controlled applications and OTC tags. Montana and Wyoming likely see a significant bump in applicants this year, especially from any hunters that didn't get what they wanted for Idaho OTC tags.   But agree the amount of non-resident applications in western states likely reduces in future years whenever the economy slows the next time.  I just think this spring application season will see an abnormal spike.   

[mburrows]

I’ll play devils advocate a little bit. Hunting opportunities due to more folks putting in is going to continue on a downward trend in my opinion. Social media like YouTube and Instagram are massive contributors to the popularity of hunting these days and that didn’t exist previously. I’d be surprised if we ever saw draw odds improve again.

[Mtnwalker]

  I’m sure it will still ebb and flow but I personally don’t think we’ll see the likes of leftover MT tags or Idaho NR second tags again unless things get really bad economically

[mburrows]

Throw in all the information that is so easily accessible these days via forums, podcast and membership type websites. Guys are starting to see you can get into hunting and boom there are unlimited nearly free resources to this awesome past time and it’s worth setting aside the time and money each year to go do.

[actionshooter]

I’ll play devils advocate a little bit. Hunting opportunities due to more folks putting in is going to continue on a downward trend in my opinion. Social media like YouTube and Instagram are massive contributors to the popularity of hunting these days and that didn’t exist previously. I’d be surprised if we ever saw draw odds improve again.

I agree that the economy affects NR hunting really easy to see, but I think this ^^ has as much or more.... I call it the "Cameron Haines Effect"  the term backcountry became pretty damn cool real fast and the population of hunters in the high country exploded.   Social media and the internet in general has caused most of this IMO. The fact that Washington has become so pathetic hasn't helped either..

[ganghis]

I think the point that was made about ease of access these days rings true for me. Nationally, the # of hunters is on a decrease but the # willing to hunt big game in the west as nonresidents is probably at an all time high.  It used to be that you had to pour through state regs and call bios if you wanted to be informed, but now you can just go on goHunt and look at state websites to see success rates, places of entry, maps, etc.   It's easier to be a successful out-of-state hunter these days.  Or easier to have visions of grandeur anyways.

[Karl Blanchard]

One thing that isn't being considered in all that though is even though its far easier to find and plan hunts, there's still no shortcut to success. Still gotta go and hunt. A guy is only gonna drive from Alabama to Colorado for elk a few times without success before you hang it up. Look at 5 year harvest data and despite all the new hard-core dudes out there, success rates haven't changed much.  This internet fad type bubble is still a very new thing, 5 years or so. I think even this will stabilize as folks burn out.

[GWP]

One thing that isn't being considered in all that though is even though its far easier to find and plan hunts, there's still no shortcut to success. Still gotta go and hunt. A guy is only gonna drive from Alabama to Colorado for elk a few times without success before you hang it up. Look at 5 year harvest data and despite all the new hard-core dudes out there, success rates haven't changed much.  This internet fad type bubble is still a very new thing, 5 years or so. I think even this will stabilize as folks burn out.

That brought a chuckle. We were upland hunting, everything was open, but it had been well below freezing for some time. No open water where we were. Three 'kids' showed up by our camp site and proceeded to pull out a good sized aluminum boat, and decoys. I went over and explained there was no open water. They knew better and left dragging the boat through the snow, the one that looked in charge making mention of them being "hard core hunters" as they left. Ok. Whatever.
The next day when we were out hunting I followed the boat drag marks for at least a mile where it arced back toward the camp site. Had to have been quite a workout!

[Karl Blanchard]

One thing that isn't being considered in all that though is even though its far easier to find and plan hunts, there's still no shortcut to success. Still gotta go and hunt. A guy is only gonna drive from Alabama to Colorado for elk a few times without success before you hang it up. Look at 5 year harvest data and despite all the new hard-core dudes out there, success rates haven't changed much.  This internet fad type bubble is still a very new thing, 5 years or so. I think even this will stabilize as folks burn out.

That brought a chuckle. We were upland hunting, everything was open, but it had been well below freezing for some time. No open water where we were. Three 'kids' showed up by our camp site and proceeded to pull out a good sized aluminum boat, and decoys. I went over and explained there was no open water. They knew better and left dragging the boat through the snow, the one that looked in charge making mention of them being "hard core hunters" as they left. Ok. Whatever.
The next day when we were out hunting I followed the boat drag marks for at least a mile where it arced back toward the camp site. Had to have been quite a workout!

  I only laugh because I think we can all relate to doing something similar. I can recall packing duck decoys on a pack frame to get to some duck spots that were miles and miles from the truck 🤦‍♂️

[mburrows]

I’ve been there   . A loaded pack with decoys and hiking in waders sucks

[dvolmer]

Good comments all the way around on the issue being discussed.  I do believe in time that a lot of this will level out as a lot of you all have mentioned.  But with that said, I do believe the states will make the most of this and license and tag costs are going to sharply increase in the next year or possibly two.  Once the first state takes the leap and the others see their success, the others will be on their shirttails!  The Politicians are getting involved and you know what they will do.  just my two cents. 

[BULLBLASTER]

I personally think this year and 2020 will be the only ones with such drastic increases in applications. After this year i think it will ease up. It is artificially high due to people having extra money and nothing to do. There are plenty of people who cant see past friday night and had no release for their paycheck each week. As more people are able to restart spending their cash on fun and vacations less will have the extra finds or time to plan out of state hunts. Of course i may be 100% off base here tho.