Montana Draw Odds Update on Gohunt

[mburrows]

Anybody seen this yet? Doesnt make a ton of sense to me but its saying your odds of drawing the big game combo tag are lower with 1 point than they would be with 0 points the way the state allocates tags.  Trying to wrap my around it... Per Gohunt, based on last year's applicants numbers you have a 35% chance of drawing the big game combo with 1 point and a 71% chance of drawing with zero points.

This is due to such an influx of new applicants into the draw and fact 75% of tags go to preference point holders and 25% of tags go to people without preference points.  If the 25% went unfilled, they went back into the preference point pool. 

I think is what its saying is they project far fewer people with zero preference points to apply than people with preference points. 

Also the cost of a preference point went up to $100 from $50.

[jjhunter]

What are the odds for 2 points?

[mburrows]

>99% with 2 points and 100% with 3 points.

This is all based on last years applicant numbers but still, interesting and not awesome for a guy with one preference such as myself.

[jstone]

I will be purchasing just preference points this year. Do you think it will slow any time soon

[jstone]

Took us two points to draw last year

[Brushbuster]

There is a new variable that begins this yr. If you are booked with an outfitter you can buy 2 pp but if you are DIY you can only buy one. Thinking tags will be much more difficult to draw from this yr forward. 

[Karl Blanchard]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

[jjhunter]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

I don’t think that’s new….I lost mine a couple years ago when I didn’t apply?

[nwhunter]

One other thing about Montana I didn't realize until last year is if you chose to not buy the combo if you do not draw your bull permit you lose your points also.. The last few years I had applied for the combo and bought a point but asked for the refund if I didn't draw my bull permit. I assumed I would accrue a point each of these years but not so....

[Karl Blanchard]

New this year also is you will lose your PP if you go consecutive years without applying. Previously you could buy points for 2 years without applying.

I don’t think that’s new….I lost mine a couple years ago when I didn’t apply?

prior to this year you would lose them on year 3. So you could buy two but if you didn't apply on year 3 you lost them.

[Dan-o]

So, I've got 0 PPs.

Am I really better off than the guys with 1 PP?

[Karl Blanchard]

2021...

[Karl Blanchard]

2022...

[huntnnw]

those odds have been available for 2 months .

[grundy53]

I was looking at the odds today. Definitely confusing that 0 points has higher odds of drawing than 1 point.

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