So many points…

[kentrek]

The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better

Here's an example for someone with 20 points

5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23

Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!

Agreed. I was talking about the "higher" end tags like Entiat rifle where even with 18 points, you have less than a 1% chance of drawing and then you add in point creep so that the next year your odds go up slightly but the amount isn't statistically significant. Going from something like .763% odds with 18 points to the next year having .842% odds with 19% isn't really better odds. 

For sure, double the odds of nothing and you still don't have much...id highly recommend not putting in for those tags with out being 99.9% ready to not draw

A ton of tags are overrated when compared to other opportunities when considering the 20+ year investment

[vandeman17]

The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better

Here's an example for someone with 20 points

5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23

Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!

Agreed. I was talking about the "higher" end tags like Entiat rifle where even with 18 points, you have less than a 1% chance of drawing and then you add in point creep so that the next year your odds go up slightly but the amount isn't statistically significant. Going from something like .763% odds with 18 points to the next year having .842% odds with 19% isn't really better odds. 

For sure, double the odds of nothing and you still don't have much...id highly recommend not putting in for those tags with out being 99.9% ready to not draw

A ton of tags are overrated when compared to other opportunities when considering the 20+ year investment

Exactly and its why when I apply for them, I am not disappointed that I didn't draw because I went in knowing my odds were garbage.

[ASienkiewich]

Not really complaining. I’m aware the point system sucks lol. Just interested in how many some of you guys have.

My family doesn’t put in for eniat or desert, so I feel like the tags are just avoiding us

I’ve had great luck with elk tags and hunted moose twice before 30 years old, so I guess there’s that!


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[TD3939]

26 Quality Bull and Bull Elk.  18 Quality Deer.  20 Sheep

[builtfordtough]

I have 23 quality deer, my brother just drew with 20

[Stein]

The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better

Here's an example for someone with 20 points

5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23

Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!

The math is actually worse than that due to two things:

1) number of tags may (has been) going down in many areas, thus the odds plummet.
2) More points in the pool each year mean your odds often (usually, almost always?) go down every year.  This is the one I don't think many people wrap their head around.  The system is designed and sold to reward people who have more points (which it does), but your odds are likely going down every year even as your points increase.  The factors driving it down outweigh the additional point you get every year.  More people enter and few are cleared out, so your percentage of the total often goes down one year to the next.

Even with something like GoHunt, remember it looks backwards which may or may not reflect what is going on moving forward.

If I had to guess, I would bet the average hunter with more than 10 points is estimating their odds about 10x what they really are.  This is evidenced by people that are surprised when they DIDN'T draw a tag with actual 7-8% draw odds. 

[Gentrys]

21 Bull Moose
18 Quality Deer
17 Quality Elk
Did draw a cow tag this year with 7 points

[MLBowhunting]

If you have 1 point or 25 points your still only entered into the draw 1 time...  they square your points and then random generate numbers for each point.  Then your lowest number is entered into the draw.  More years of points only helps you trying to get the lowest possible number for the draw.

[jackelope]

If you're applying for the primo units, it's going to take forever to draw. You can apply for Methow permits with hopes and expectations of shooting a 170+ type buck or you can apply for other units with hopes and expectations of shooting a 150" buck. Just comes down to what you want. I've had good luck drawing permits relative to a lot of folks, but I don't apply for the top teir units. Actually I do for some of them, but I don't expect to draw or get pissed off when I don't draw because the odds are super low whether you have 26 points or 16 or 6 points.

[jackelope]

The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better

Here's an example for someone with 20 points

5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23

Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!

Are these numbers really accurate when you use all the numbers to calculate? I mean if there's 1 permit and 100 people apply, you have a 1% chance of drawing, but that's thrown out the window when one of these people has 18 points and another has 3 and another has 10 and so on. Are you using everyone's points and number of times they're in the pool and all the things? Because I don't think there is really a truly accurate way of calculating draw odds when all the variables are accurately portrayed.

[baker5150]

The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better

Here's an example for someone with 20 points

5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23

Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!

Are these numbers really accurate when you use all the numbers to calculate? I mean if there's 1 permit and 100 people apply, you have a 1% chance of drawing, but that's thrown out the window when one of these people has 18 points and another has 3 and another has 10 and so on. Are you using everyone's points and number of times they're in the pool and all the things? Because I don't think there is really a truly accurate way of calculating draw odds when all the variables are accurately portrayed.

There is no way to accurately determine odds.  Not when you consider the group aspect.

There is no way to determine how many groups will submit, and what their point totals will be when they do.  You could only base it off of the prior years submissions.

You can only determine odds in respect to an individual submitting, and even then, it will be based on if everyone who can submit, will submit.

[bobcat]

If you have 1 point or 25 points your still only entered into the draw 1 time...  they square your points and then random generate numbers for each point.  Then your lowest number is entered into the draw.  More years of points only helps you trying to get the lowest possible number for the draw.

Yes but that's the same as having 25 chances in the draw, because only the lowest number would matter anyway. I don't understand why people always say this.

A person with 5 points has 25 times more chance of drawing than a person with 1 point.

[bobcat]

The other reason you can't calculate the true odds, is that on each application a person can have two choices, or four, depending on which category it is. Just way too many variables. But you can calculate relative odds to somewhat give a general idea of which permits are harder or easier to draw than others.

[X-Force]

I think a good prospective is Colockum September quality rifle permit

2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.
2021 points 28 .33% odds
2020 points 27 .38%
2019 points 26 .42%
2018 points 25 points only
2017 points 24 .48%

Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.

[jackelope]

I think a good prospective is Colockum September quality rifle permit

2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.
2021 points 28 .33% odds
2020 points 27 .38%
2019 points 26 .42%
2018 points 25 points only
2017 points 24 .48%

Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.

How do you know your odds?
Is it possible to know after the fact how many points everyone had that applied for a given unit?