Free: Contests & Raffles.
Quote from: X-Force on June 17, 2022, 01:06:51 PMI think a good prospective is Colockum September quality rifle permit2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.2021 points 28 .33% odds2020 points 27 .38%2019 points 26 .42%2018 points 25 points only2017 points 24 .48%Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.How do you know your odds? Is it possible to know after the fact how many points everyone had that applied for a given unit?
I think a good prospective is Colockum September quality rifle permit2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.2021 points 28 .33% odds2020 points 27 .38%2019 points 26 .42%2018 points 25 points only2017 points 24 .48%Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.
Quote from: kentrek on June 16, 2022, 09:06:55 AMThe odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better Here's an example for someone with 20 points 5% odds with 206% odds with 217% odds with 228% odds with 23Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !! Are these numbers really accurate when you use all the numbers to calculate? I mean if there's 1 permit and 100 people apply, you have a 1% chance of drawing, but that's thrown out the window when one of these people has 18 points and another has 3 and another has 10 and so on. Are you using everyone's points and number of times they're in the pool and all the things? Because I don't think there is really a truly accurate way of calculating draw odds when all the variables are accurately portrayed.
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better Here's an example for someone with 20 points 5% odds with 206% odds with 217% odds with 228% odds with 23Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Second Deer ChilliwistI drew with 9 points 3rd option.2022 9 points unknown odds 2021 8 points 18%2020 7 points 20%2019 6 points 21%2018 5 points 22%2017 4 points 27%Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.
Quote from: X-Force on June 17, 2022, 02:20:07 PMSecond Deer ChilliwistI drew with 9 points 3rd option.2022 9 points unknown odds 2021 8 points 18%2020 7 points 20%2019 6 points 21%2018 5 points 22%2017 4 points 27%Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.I get that you're putting these numbers out there. My question is how you're coming up with them.I'm pretty sure GoHunt or the like don't publish draw odds on 2nd doe tags here.
D-RockLincoln Peak15 points in 2022 unknown odds2021 14 points .19%2020 13 points .20%2019 12 points .18%2018 11 points .20%2017 10 points .17%From 2017 with 100 points to 2022 with 225 points your odds are virtually the same.
Seems like we have this discussion every year but many people still dont get it.........Wouldnt matter what point system we had there are not enough tags for all the interested people to draw when everyone can be in for everything and no one sacrifices the opportunity to draw. Saw this coming a long time ago when all the cow hunters were bitching they did not get to hunt big bulls. At that time it was pretty easy for the meat hunters to draw tags as the guys who wanted to hunt bulls or have a chance at a trophy did not put in for cow tags.......What happened? now guys are bitching they dont draw their cow tag and why cant they draw a bull tag with 15 points? Because they are all in the draw and most are picking the better units....and now since they are already paying most of the fees guys who would not have considered hunting cows are in those draws....So now the state made a million categories and makes some small revenue off each app for each category but now the points are mostly worthless.........Kind of like your dollar today after flooding the economy with free money.....If the state gave you the chance to take all of your points and put them into one category would you do it? That would change things drastically for a few years but people who truly valued a certain tag would have a much better chance...Not likely to get better any time soon unless people would be willing to sacrifice opportunity to hunt each year for better quality hunts........Otherwise roll the dice and look at the average point total taken to draw the tag and think you are due........but your not because the point total used for that is just based on the 5 people who drew....not the 400 who did not.
