moose draw

[Caretaker]

Why would you only apply for one unit?  With WA being a once in a lifetime tag why even risk only trying one unit?  Why waste your years as life passes you up and risk never getting drawn?  I don't get it, maybe I'm missing something here.

Caretaker

[huntnphool]

Several reasons actually that I would be glad to discuss with you face to face one day.

[bobcat]

Caretaker,   Normally I would agree with what you are saying, but in this case the unit they are talking about has the best odds of any of the bull tags so if that's their number one choice it wouldn't improve their odds of drawing by putting down a 2nd, 3rd, and/or a 4th choice.

[huntnphool]

Spot on Bobcat, thats one of them.

[Aneoakleaf]

I'm going to get one of them! I'm in with 13 points
I did put in for 4 units , too. 

[Caretaker]

Let's use 8 points as the average, based on last years permits/applicants, Selkirk range has better odds the 49 Deg North.

49 Deg - 2008 Permits/2008 applicants - 26/13,792 = .18% chance of getting drawn
Selkirk Mtns - 2008 Permits/2008 applicants - 25/11,392 = .21% chance of getting drawn

[Pathfinder101]

Not moose.  But I know of a guy who drew the Watershed tag twice, with 0 points both times...

[Aneoakleaf]

Not moose.  But I know of a guy who drew the Watershed tag twice, with 0 points both times...

no dude....they give you one point when you apply

[Pathfinder101]

I know.  But what I meant was that he drew the unit first try both times.  0 bonus points...  Wasn't even serious, didn't kill an elk either time.  Buddy talked him into it both times...

[bobcat]

Let's use 8 points as the average, based on last years permits/applicants, Selkirk range has better odds the 49 Deg North.

49 Deg - 2008 Permits/2008 applicants - 26/13,792 = .18% chance of getting drawn
Selkirk Mtns - 2008 Permits/2008 applicants - 25/11,392 = .21% chance of getting drawn

I prefer to do it this way: 

49 Degrees:  13,788/26 = 1 in 530
Selkirk:         11,392/25 = 1 in 456

But yes you are right, Selkirk has slightly better odds. I guess I should have said something more like of the units he wants to hunt, 49 Degrees has the best odds, so in that case there's no reason to put down any more than just the one choice. The odds on 49 and Selkirk are virtually the same anyway. Look at a permit like Three Forks... the odds on that would be 1 in 1611. So if somebody wants to draw that hunt, they would want it to be their number one choice.

[Pathfinder101]

Let's use 8 points as the average, based on last years permits/applicants, Selkirk range has better odds the 49 Deg North.

49 Deg - 2008 Permits/2008 applicants - 26/13,792 = .18% chance of getting drawn
Selkirk Mtns - 2008 Permits/2008 applicants - 25/11,392 = .21% chance of getting drawn

I prefer to do it this way: 

49 Degrees:  13,788/26 = 1 in 530
Selkirk:         11,392/25 = 1 in 456

But yes you are right, Selkirk has slightly better odds. I guess I should have said something more like of the units he wants to hunt, 49 Degrees has the best odds, so in that case there's no reason to put down any more than just the one choice. The odds on 49 and Selkirk are virtually the same anyway. Look at a permit like Three Forks... the odds on that would be 1 in 1611. So if somebody wants to draw that hunt, they would want it to be their number one choice.

HEY!!  Have you been logging on to WDFW with my Wild ID #...??

[bobcat]

Why, do you have Three Forks #1, 49 Degrees #2, and Selkirk #3

[Pathfinder101]

Why, do you have Three Forks #1, 49 Degrees #2, and Selkirk #3

Yeah, in that order...
Of course my methodology was based upon a bull I saw 5 years ago that's probably dead by now.

[GoldTip]

My buddy drew in 2007 on the REDRAW with I think 4 points going into it and it was either his 3rd or 4th choice unit.

[huntnphool]

Caretaker, for me if I was to draw a tag I only wanted to hunt that unit, all the reasons aside, that is why I only applied for 49DN.