Predictions for hunting 10/29-30 & 11/5-6

[ArroyoS]

So I've done some research on waterfowl hunting and wonder if any of it has legs to stand on.... I watch the weather in Alaska & Alberta (where most birds for pacific flyway come from) and see that this week of 10/24/22 is going to have a slight dip in temp and then drastic dip in temp early next week (week of 10/31/22).

 Has anyone used this method to predict the influx of new birds in their hunting areas? If so, is this an accurate way of judging arrival of new birds a few days after those drop in temps/weather changes (snow storms or heavy rains, etc)?
(I understand scouting, the day before, is usually key to see where they actually are in your area.)

[h2ofowlr]

I look at the weather up north every week.  As the freeze line pushes down, you know it's going to get birds moving.  It usually initiates migrations almost like clockwork.  This has worked good for me living in NW Washington.  We saw a lot of new birds moving into the area the past few days as well.

[metlhead]

In general, northern weather moves birds south. For practical  use, watching weather that far north is just something to waste time. So many factors between those birds and us. Some never leave, some find evrything they need on an estuary that is halfway. Many are already here. Know your hunt areas well and you will be consistent from the opener through February. Local weather is more important. Just my observation through the years.

[ArroyoS]

Thank you both for your insight.

[Stein]

For me, it's hit and miss, but the guys above are much more knowledgeable.  The thing about Western WA is there are ponds and bays and fields with feed virtually the entire way down and they can short stop you anywhere, or go right by.  I was scratching my head one year and we went up to BC around Christmas for a vacation and rode Amtrak.  A short distance above where I hunt the bays had tens of thousands of ducks as far as you could see just loafing around.  For whatever reason they didn't come down any further.  Three days later on the way back, those bays were empty and my area had some, but the majority apparently just kept going.  The weather didn't change at all or get even close to freezing for that time period.

[h2ofowlr]

Being in NW Washington we short stop a lot of birds.  Lots of hunting clubs from Snohomish north that plant lots of food for birds.  Lots of farmland in Skagit Valley and Whatcom.  We have birds that bounce back and forth from Fraser Valley BC to Padilla, Samish and Fir Island.  Hunting Lynden, Everson, Ferndale areas the ducks and geese bounce back and forth from B.C. to Washington.  Watch your local weather which I check daily and I check weather up north to see what’s coming.  Weather up north directly effects big migration pushes in our area.  If you look up harvest data between Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish they harvest close to 100K birds.  Definitely where a majority of them hangout in western WA.