Oregon seed#

[Ricochet]

Seed numbers are only for the random tags where points aren't involved. The only ones I pay attention to are the premiums, sheep, and goat. I will draw elk this year off of my points and my seed number isn't within 700,000. I know of a premium tag drawn at 68,000. I was under 10,000 2 years ago on a premium deer tag and struck out.

It's also fairly accurate to determine your chances if you are at a point level where some but not all applicants are in the 75% pool. If Ron Wold (http://oregontags.com/)says you have a 50% chance then you'd better be within 5,000,000 over the seed. I've drawn a couple tags where, at my point level, (25% pool), I had a 3% chance. My application numbers were less than 300,000 over the seed, so I drew. When you're talking about a single tag, like the premium tags, knowing the numbers doesn't tell you much because you could miss the seed by two and get beat by someone who hit it exactly or was one over. Pure outhouse luck, paraphrasing my Dad. 

[MtnMuley]

Seed numbers are only for the random tags where points aren't involved. The only ones I pay attention to are the premiums, sheep, and goat. I will draw elk this year off of my points and my seed number isn't within 700,000. I know of a premium tag drawn at 68,000. I was under 10,000 2 years ago on a premium deer tag and struck out.

It's also fairly accurate to determine your chances if you are at a point level where some but not all applicants are in the 75% pool. If Ron Wold (http://oregontags.com/)says you have a 50% chance then you'd better be within 5,000,000 over the seed. I've drawn a couple tags where, at my point level, (25% pool), I had a 3% chance. My application numbers were less than 300,000 over the seed, so I drew. When you're talking about a single tag, like the premium tags, knowing the numbers doesn't tell you much because you could miss the seed by two and get beat by someone who hit it exactly or was one over. Pure outhouse luck, paraphrasing my Dad. 

Ha, that's true. If you're a resident you can can determine a little.from the seed numbers on deer, elk and lope outside of the 25%, but with a nonresident having no 25%, it just doesn't work the way I see it.

[Ricochet]

Seed numbers are only for the random tags where points aren't involved. The only ones I pay attention to are the premiums, sheep, and goat. I will draw elk this year off of my points and my seed number isn't within 700,000. I know of a premium tag drawn at 68,000. I was under 10,000 2 years ago on a premium deer tag and struck out.

It's also fairly accurate to determine your chances if you are at a point level where some but not all applicants are in the 75% pool. If Ron Wold (http://oregontags.com/)says you have a 50% chance then you'd better be within 5,000,000 over the seed. I've drawn a couple tags where, at my point level, (25% pool), I had a 3% chance. My application numbers were less than 300,000 over the seed, so I drew. When you're talking about a single tag, like the premium tags, knowing the numbers doesn't tell you much because you could miss the seed by two and get beat by someone who hit it exactly or was one over. Pure outhouse luck, paraphrasing my Dad. 

Ha, that's true. If you're a resident you can can determine a little.from the seed numbers on deer, elk and lope outside of the 25%, but with a nonresident having no 25%, it just doesn't work the way I see it.

Right. Bumping into the non-resident tag limit ends every non-resident's chances at that point. So knowing the seed numbers doesn't do you a lot of good unless you're at the top of the point race. As a resident, I can compare my app number to the seed number and get a pretty accurate idea if I drew. As a non-resident you are engaged in a total crap-shoot.