Cubing points

[HikerHunter]

Having only two people in the draw is too much of a simplification of our system, BUT if you want to see those odds, one person (#1) with 100 numbers and one person (#2) with 1 number. The odds for person #1 to draw the lowest number is 100/(100+1) = 99.01%.

In reality, most everyone in our system is person #2, in fact worse than person #2 with much less than 1% odds of drawing.

[HikerHunter]

To take that one step further, say there are 3000 applicants with an average of 10 points, so call it 300,000 numbers in the draw.

If you had 15 points as currently squared, your odds would be 225/(300,000+225)=0.075% odds of drawing (assuming a single tag).

If you had 15 points that were cubed, then the numbers in the draw would increase significantly, say 500 applicants have 15 points that are also now cubed. So now there are 1,937,500 numbers in the draw. You now have 3375 numbers in the draw so 3375/(1,937,500+3375)=0.17% odds of drawing a single tag

In my scenario, your odds doubled, but that's still not great odds.

[kentrek]

Can any of the math wizards tell me any statistical differences between what we have now and a complete random ? Would the bell curve just have a slightly different shape ? Or would the mode just be shifted slightly along the x axis ?

Everyone always points to Idaho as the answer but don't we already have that in the low tag categories?

[HikerHunter]

Can any of the math wizards tell me any statistical differences between what we have now and a complete random ? Would the bell curve just have a slightly different shape ? Or would the mode just be shifted slightly along the x axis ?

Everyone always points to Idaho as the answer but don't we already have that in the low tag categories?

Are you asking what are the odds if everyone has just one number in the drawing?

[steeleywhopper]

Our draw system is so jacked up GoHunt stopped trying to figure out the odds

[kentrek]

Can any of the math wizards tell me any statistical differences between what we have now and a complete random ? Would the bell curve just have a slightly different shape ? Or would the mode just be shifted slightly along the x axis ?

Everyone always points to Idaho as the answer but don't we already have that in the low tag categories?

Are you asking what are the odds if everyone has just one number in the drawing?

Y axis is number of people drawn, x axis is number years in the system

There is a bell curve of data, each system has a slightly different bell curve...is our bell curve that much different then idaho for these premier tags

[trophyhunt]

With no points in the equation, like Idaho, aren’t your odds simple, the number of tags available by the number of applicants each year? 

[dreamingbig]

Limit the choice to one unit.  Instantly everyone’s draw odds are better.  If there are leftovers they can have a second draw or FCFS sale.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HikerHunter]

Limit the choice to one unit.  Instantly everyone’s draw odds are better.  If there are leftovers they can have a second draw or FCFS sale.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This brings up a good point, my draw odds are over-simplified by saying you have to have the lowest number which isn't always the case. I believe the draw is done by category, so if numbers below you have different hunts selected, then you could still get drawn without the lowest number. That sounds like way to many assumptions to add into the odds percentage for me to do...

[kentrek]

With no points in the equation, like Idaho, aren’t your odds simple, the number of tags available by the number of applicants each year?

Yup its easier to grasp that's for sure but 1% odds are 1% odds regardless how much math it takes to get there...the outcome is the same

[Pathfinder101]

Add this to the mix:  (I am spreading a rumor here, but I've heard this more than once)
There was a kid who was majoring in Math at WSU.  Heard his roommate complaining about the draw odds in WA.  Decided to do a project on it.  He found out the algorithm that WA uses and did some tests.  Proved that the algorithm "likes" higher sequenced numbers.  So if you have a low sequenced number, you are less likely to get selected in the "random" draw.  That's why some people appear "lucky" and some people don't...

[X-Force]

Add this to the mix:  (I am spreading a rumor here, but I've heard this more than once)
There was a kid who was majoring in Math at WSU.  Heard his roommate complaining about the draw odds in WA.  Decided to do a project on it.  He found out the algorithm that WA uses and did some tests.  Proved that the algorithm "likes" higher sequenced numbers.  So if you have a low sequenced number, you are less likely to get selected in the "random" draw.  That's why some people appear "lucky" and some people don't...

That wouldn’t surprise me. It would also be a start to a class action lawsuit.

[blackveltbowhunter]

   I don't support any changes toward a Wyoming type system. IMO its currently the worst system out there for long term hunter retention and opportunity for early onset point holders to get a crack at a banger hunt.

   I don't care if they cube points for high points holder in non OIL tags. Improvements will be so miniscule it will likely not matter.

   True change will only occur one of two ways, 1) application category limits, ( short term fix that is badly needed IMO) with increased application cost to maintain revenue stream they want. 2) Actual game management that works diligently toward increasing herd size and robustness in tandem with increased hunting access and increased permit levels and bringing  higher odds for permits among all categories that is the only long term solution

[trophyhunt]

They should really make you pay for the tag to enter the drawings for OIL's , that would drop many apps, but again, they won't do anything that lowers their income. 

[GOcougsHunter]

They should really make you pay for the tag to enter the drawings for OIL's , that would drop many apps, but again, they won't do anything that lowers their income. 

Agree.  It used to be that way in the early 90's here in WA.  Was a bit of a stretch to come up with the cash to cover the tag fee as a starving college student.  We have to prepay deer and elk to play the special permit game...  why not oil?  Except that I would be in $996 to apply for the big three as a resident.  That would be a nice interest free loan to the Dept.