Oregon Seed numbers 2024

[Doublelunger]

Oregon drew the seed numbers today. If anyone wants to geek out and do some math you can get a decent idea if you're going to draw or not.

[youngbuckslayer]

Always been confused on that how exactly do you figure it out

[Doublelunger]

Always been confused on that how exactly do you figure it out

Look at your application #. The closer to the seed number the better. You can look at how many applicants there were last year and figure out roughly what the distribution is then multiply that by the number of tags. If you app number is within that range you have a good shot. Example: say you apply for a tag that had 700 applicants last year and they give away 50 tags then I'd do this. 10,000,000 possible app numbers divided by 700 applicants equals a distribution of 14,285 between applicants. Multiply that by the 50 tags given out and it equals 714,285. So if the seed number for that series was 3,000,000 then your app # would need to be between 3,000,000 and 3,714,285. This assumes a perfectly even distribution which never happens.It gets even more confusing if you don't have max points. There's an awesome website that breaks it down by points.

https://oregontags.com/?fbclid=IwAR0aRnoqHWgptgJyhCD4eyerG61Vr_PzFK_E2wbsHdxsrCdLNE-e99y9iqU

Another example. I applied for E Whitehorse buck with 0 points. According to this resource zero points has a 32% chance of drawing. My app # is 6,639,530. The seed # is 3,633,092. That's a difference of 3,006,438. So..3,006,438/10,000,000= %30. So basically my app number puts me in the top 30% so if the top 32% draw line predicted then I should get it.

I suck at explaining. Are you thoroughly confused?

[trophyhunt]

Even more confused!!!! Lol

[Doublelunger]

I will say I've done the math for the last 7 years on 7 applications and it's been right 49 out of 49 times.

[mp.hunter]

Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


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[Doublelunger]

Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


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You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.

[mp.hunter]

Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


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You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.

Thanks


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[Crunchy]

mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

[trophyhunt]

I did this last year, took me about 2 weeks just to find my app #.   Lol

[ShaneTyTrey]

Not good numbers for me.  We all have zero chance!

[trophyhunt]

Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

[pickardjw]

Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

[Crunchy]

Wonder how the NON resident gets figured into this math??

[Doublelunger]

mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?