Special permit spread sheets?

[swanderek]

Last year someone posted nice spread sheets for special permits.
Odds, harvest data, etc.
Anyone have that this year?

[Kingofthemountain83]

You can look on the WDFW website and get last years harvest data for special permits... Or regular season... They just dropped earlier this week... 

[tracksoup]

Careful…,
Might get hammered from a few folks on the “Discretion” thread for posting that info. Lot of sour grapes over there.

[Kingofthemountain83]

Careful…,
Might get hammered from a few folks on the “Discretion” thread for posting that info. Lot of sour grapes over there.

Right... 

[dagon]

I don't know of any place to get real odds for Washington state. It is to complicated. I did a lot of research to try and figure out a formula. And we don't get all the data from fish and game that we used to. Huntin Fool says:

The draw odds we list are not the true odds of drawing a particular permit, as they do not reflect the number of bonus points each applicant has accumulated. These simple odds are calculated by dividing the total number of applications by the total number of permits issued for a particular hunt. All applicants are included in one drawing, with no limits or quotas on resident permits.

[Ridgerunner]

WA draw odds are very complicated, unfortunately they no longer will provide the detailed info that they used too.  Not sure why and I've done public records request showing exact reports and still can't get it. 

The average point per draw they publish is basically meaningless and has no real bearing on what will happen in the current year or what your odds are. 

Frustrating for sure. 

Bottom line is the draw odds for what most folks consider good tags are <5% even with 15 plus points.  Often probably closer to 2% or less.  For OIL tags its a matter of luck regardless of how many points you have.  Can't count on drawing anything in this state.  It's a bonus if you do.

[vandeman17]

WA draw odds are very complicated, unfortunately they no longer will provide the detailed info that they used too.  Not sure why and I've done public records request showing exact reports and still can't get it. 

The average point per draw they publish is basically meaningless and has no real bearing on what will happen in the current year or what your odds are. 

Frustrating for sure. 

Bottom line is the draw odds for what most folks consider good tags are <5% even with 15 plus points.  Often probably closer to 2% or less.  For OIL tags its a matter of luck regardless of how many points you have.  Can't count on drawing anything in this state.  It's a bonus if you do.

I stopped really thinking about or caring about odds in this state. Once you start viewing it as a lottery, which it basically is, and applying for the tags you would love to draw, you will be better off. 

[CarbonHunter]

You can take all the data the state has posted and all the secret data they aren’t sharing and regardless of the formulas you use or the AI calculator you use it will return the same results… ODD’s AREN’T GOOD!

Shoot for your favorite hunt and hope for some luck!

[HikerHunter]

The average point per draw they publish is basically meaningless and has no real bearing on what will happen in the current year or what your odds are. 

This is true especially when there are only 1-2 tags. They use the number of points from ONLY the previous year's successful applicants.

So if someone happens to snag a OIL tag with 5 points and there was only one tag in that area, the following year it would look like you only need 5 points to draw that tag, which couldn't be further from the truth.

[millerwheeler]

The state will change yearly due to number of apps and amount of tags a lot of units have changed number wise. Quick answer is who cares apply for the hunts for which you can actually do and would have a great time on. Don’t over think it

[Kingofthemountain83]

I'd say with 15 point most Quality or OIL permits you have less than 1% chance...

[dvolmer]

I'd say with 15 point most Quality or OIL permits you have less than 1% chance...

This is a true statement for sure. Probably about a .01% chance.

[Kingofthemountain83]

I'd say with 15 point most Quality or OIL permits you have less than 1% chance...

This is a true statement for sure. Probably about a .01% chance.

Correctly worded would be ALL... OIL Permits and most Quality permits...       You gotta know some serious algebra to figure out our draw odds...

[HikerHunter]

Correctly worded would be ALL... OIL Permits and most Quality permits...       You gotta know some serious algebra to figure out our draw odds...

Its actually fairly simple math, if there was 5000 applicants and the split was 1000 with 25 points, 1000 with 20 points, 1000 with 15 points, 1000 with 10 points and 1000 with 5 points, then someone with 15 points would have 0.016% of the entries. That was a great guess King!

[dagon]

Correctly worded would be ALL... OIL Permits and most Quality permits...       You gotta know some serious algebra to figure out our draw odds...

Its actually fairly simple math, if there was 5000 applicants and the split was 1000 with 25 points, 1000 with 20 points, 1000 with 15 points, 1000 with 10 points and 1000 with 5 points, then someone with 15 points would have 0.016% of the entries. That was a great guess King!
[/quote

The math is way more complicated then that. You need to put in how many points you have. how many tags are available. and then the hardest thing is to come up with your odds to draw a number that is 1- 10 if for example there are 10 tags to be had.