Special Hunt Permit points

[H2Ofuzz]

Bob33 Were did you get that info do you got a link? Yeas wow becouse after 14 years why would you quit now. Seem that you went to that much trouble you might as well keep going.

[Bob33]

Here is the graph of all bonus points for mountain goat.  Data can be found at this site:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html

Note that odds increase as points increase.  However, bonus points are (supposed to be) squared, so someone with 10 points has 100 names in the hat, versus 1 name in the hat with 1 point...
[smg id=9478]

[winston2789]

Thanks for the graphs Bob, some good info....and interesting to look at.

[NRA4LIFE]

Wish I hadn't gone to that link.  Now I'm really depressed.

[Bob33]

Maybe the site needs a disclaimer: "Warning - viewing this data may cause dizziness and spells of not wanting to purchase special hunt applications".

[methowman]

Ok, I used the draw odds chart for deer & the results are sickening..... I have 8 points that equal a 8.30%
success rate of being drawn based on 830 applicants & 100 applicant winners & a guy with 1 point has a 5.65% success rate based on 14844 applicants & 2627 applicant winners. So basically I only gained less than 3% points higher after waiting 8 years ! 

[bobcat]

It seems there might be something screwed up with the way the drawing is done. Almost as if they are not squaring our points???

[Romulus]

Those graphs are based on the past draw not the odds. If it were based on the odds then the more points the better the odds as is the case. That is just telling you who drew the tags. Like when guys see that 3 guys with 6 points drew a muzzie elk tag and think they are about to draw since they have six points. The true goat odds with 14 points are probably closer to 1 in crap. Take a hunt with 1 tag and 1500 applicants many of whom have 10 points or more your odds are still once in several lifetimes. Like I said before those who really think they have a decent chance DO NOT UNDERSTAND. 1 in 66 is probably what you have for a good deer tag with 6 or 7 points. Do the math! And just because some of you will get lucky does not mean anything other than the fact that you got very lucky. Get out a deck of cards and see how many times you can shuffle the deck and then pick the correct card before you cut. That is 1 in 52 odds much better than most popular deer and elk hunts here let alone moose, sheep, or goat. I just feel there are better ways to let everyone have a turn at something and have it based on something other than just sh*t house luck.

[Atroxus]

I wonder how many of us that have 1 point, are because we just started hunting or because they got drawn last year and their points reset? This will be my first deer season since getting my hunting license so my 1 point is the one I earned for this year.

[bobcat]

Romulus,  But shouldn't the drawing results reflect the actual odds? A person with 8 points should have a 64 times greater chance of drawing than a person with 1 point. If you look at the overall deer permit results from last year, does it appear to you that points were squared?

[NRA4LIFE]

Just for kicks, I downloaded the numbers for moose.  I then squared the points and multiplied by the number of applications. I then summed all those which represents the total number of chances that are "in the hat" so to speak.  That total came up to 757796.  So if you have 10 points your odds would be the number of permits (134) times 100 (10 squared) divided by 757796, roughly 1 in 57.  Compare that to if you had 1 point at 1 in 5655.  Even if you had the max number of points last year at 14 (not counting the extras) it's still only 1 in 29.  One thing to point out is this is an absolute best case too.  That means the 134 names chosen for those tags all get a tag, which is not the case.  For instance, if you were the 50th name chosen, and your choices were no longer available you then don't get a tag, as those tags for your unit had been dolled out to the people chosen in front of you.  So the 1 in 29 is really something a lot higher, based on the peoples choices picked before you.  I am basing this on how the system works as it was explained to me by the WDFW.  The true odds cannot really be calculated because the number of permits left when your name is drawn is dependent on the hunt choices of the people chosen ahead of you.  A form of "conditional probability".  For the people chosen near the front, these odds are correct, but for people chosen later down the line they begin to degrade as the unit quotas get reached.

Romulus does make a good point.  If I had been putting in for 14 years, I would sure like my odds to be a wee bit better than 1 in 29.  I have some opinions on how to make it more equitable, but so does everybody I'm sure.  

[Chesapeake]

I like the goat chart. Some dude drew with only 2 points! Only wish it was me. I had 8 points last year and didnt get squat.

[videoman]

I think that at least 50% of the tags should go to max point holder and the other 50% to random draw.

[Atroxus]

I think that at least 50% of the tags should go to max point holder and the other 50% to random draw.

That actually sounds like an idea I could get behind. Although being a new hunter I would be pretty much boned on draw odds for for quite awhile.

[Bob33]

Giving "preference" to those with the maximum points might be a good idea, but it does have a downside. The odds of everyone else gets cut in half. If you had a 1 in 100 chance of drawing, your odds would go to 1 in 200 if you're not at the maximum point level.   For the sake of those with maximum points, everyone else suffers, even those who are just one point back.  And if you're not already at max points, you'll probably never get there.  Look at the OIL tags and see how many people are in front of you with points.  They'll all have to draw before making room for you at the top, and that's not going to happen in many instances.