Special Hunt Permit points

[jackelope]

That graph sucks. It shows me having actually 0.00% odds of drawing a tag where I'm at.

[WDFW-SUX]

you cant calculate your odds that way.....at least not accurately.

[Bob33]

That graph refects actual 2009 results, not necessarily the odds of being drawn on a future draw.  Just because no one with 15 points drew last year doesn't mean the odds are zero.  But yes - they're pretty close!

[Romulus]

NRA for life is that the odds moose including cows? I am curious if you could that for the specific bull units to see how they compare. I think to get better numbers you need to calculate for specific hunts not specific species. The odds for the better units in each category are much worse than the odds for the species as a whole with antlerless included.

[Pathfinder101]

That graph sucks. It shows me having actually 0.00% odds of drawing a tag where I'm at.

That's just because of "tag draw history".  Historically no one with your amount of points has drawn that tag.  You are not figuring lady luck into the equation...  Just be an optimist, and it won't bother you...

[Bob33]

NRA for life is that the odds moose including cows? I am curious if you could that for the specific bull units to see how they compare. I think to get better numbers you need to calculate for specific hunts not specific species. The odds for the better units in each category are much worse than the odds for the species as a whole with antlerless included.

Here are the draw results for 2009 moose hunt 49 Degrees North.  There were 22 permits given out.
[smg id=9480]
[smg id=9479]

[Pathfinder101]

This is just a snapshot, and AGAIN, no one is figuring luck into the equation.  So, what this says is that if I have 8 points, I have a decent chance of drawing a tag, but if I have 9 points then I have absolutely NO chance of drawing it.  Like I said, it's a snapshot.  Overall, it says what we all already knew.  If you have 14 or 15 points you have the best chance of being drawn.  It's a lottery guys!

[Bob33]

This is just a snapshot, and AGAIN, no one is figuring luck into the equation.  So, what this says is that if I have 8 points, I have a decent chance of drawing a tag, but if I have 9 points then I have absolutely NO chance of drawing it.  Like I said, it's a snapshot.  Overall, it says what we all already knew.  If you have 14 or 15 points you have the best chance of being drawn.  It's a lottery guys!

It's just that some believe that everyone with maximum or close to maximum points should draw.  More points means better odds, but nowhere near 100%.  The best you can do with the OIL tags is probably up to around 5% odds in any year.  Of course anyone can draw, even with 1 point.  It's just much rarer.  For this hunt in 2009 there were 2399 applicants with 1 point, and none drew.  It could happen, but it rarely does.   Of the 600 some applicants with 13 or more points, only 6 drew.

[WDFW Hates ME!!!]

Why do you say you ad no chance of drawing. It is the result after the drawing. Before they held the drawing you had a chance of drawing, but after the drawing if you didn't draw you had no chance.
To really figure out your odds of drawing you have to take the amount of total points for everyone and then divide that by your total points and then you would know your true odds. But those odds change with the first person pulled. Say they had 10 points and they get drawn first, now there are 100 less names in the hat. So in effect your odds just increased.

[B.G.hunter]

NRA for life is that the odds moose including cows? I am curious if you could that for the specific bull units to see how they compare. I think to get better numbers you need to calculate for specific hunts not specific species. The odds for the better units in each category are much worse than the odds for the species as a whole with antlerless included.

Here are the draw results for 2009 moose hunt 49 Degrees North.  There were 22 permits given out.
[smg id=9480]
[smg id=9479]

here how worked the odds on this drawing
1 point = 1 in 594367
2 points = 1 in 148591
3 points = 1 in 66040
4 points = 1 in 37147
5 points = 1 in 23774
6 points = 1 in 16510
7 points = 1 in 12129
8 points = 1 in 9286
9 points = 1 in 7337
10 points = 1 in 5943
11 points = 1 in 4912
12 points = 1 in 4127
13 points = 1 in 3516
14 points = 1 in 3032
15 points = 1 in 2641
16 points = 1 in 2321
I took the total number of tickets in the drawing (594367) and divided it by the number of tickets each applicant would have in there.

[WDFW-SUX]

Thats gruesome....the odds for the 16 point pool are less than 3%  

[WDFW-SUX]

I think that at least 50% of the tags should go to max point holder and the other 50% to random draw.

Thats stupid.

[jackelope]

you're better off looking at the average draw per points than the odds. is it really possible to accurately forecast odds in a system like we have. I think take that last chart Bob33 posted and go back 5 years or 10 years or whatever. That'd be kinda accurate.

[B.G.hunter]

this is why i believe that if you apply for goat, moose, or sheep you should not be able to apply for deer and elk special permits just like Idaho and take it down to one choice. It would make the tags easier to draw if that was you goal.  As it stands right now most people who apply will never draw goat moose or sheep tag or by the time they draw they will be 98 years old and not be able to hunt except from the road or the back of a horse.

[WDFW Hates ME!!!]

For the big units and the OIL's you really can't count on points. There are so many people that it really is just luck of the draw. As long as we have bonus points it will always be luck. Hope they stay, i do not want preference points.