2010 Special Hunt Permit Drawing Results (Summary) has been posted

[bobcat]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/

[bobcat]

Funny... just as I predicted, odds for drawing an antlerless moose permit are now tougher than odds for drawing a bull moose permit.  For the antlerless, it was 1 in 287. For bulls, 1 in 274. Average points for those who drew antlerless moose was 10.19, and for those who drew a bull moose permit it was 9.95.   

                        

[WABONEHNTR]

I sure hope they change the way tags are drawn.  Max points should draw the OIL tags.  No reason why 6pts should draw a sheep tag over my 15pts.  Sure hope that changes.

[bobcat]

I sure hope they change the way tags are drawn.  Max points should draw the OIL tags.  No reason why 6pts should draw a sheep tag over my 15pts.  Sure hope that changes.

Not sure I agree with that. It sounds good, but what about the new hunters just starting to build points? They would never be able to draw in a lifetime of applying, if that were the case. What would be the inventive for them to even apply?

[kramman]

it was all about $ The area I apply for buck deer went from 1100 apps to well over 2500 and how is this supposed to increase my chances?Hopefully it will change but in this economy and the gov. telling agencies to budget for a 3% cut I doubt it will get any better .I would stop applying but Im already into for 8yrs.

[WABONEHNTR]

OK say maybe 75% goes to the max pts and 25% to random.  Something has to change.  

[Bob33]

I would stop applying but Im already into for 8yrs.

I've heard that a local company is offering a 12 step program for breaking the permit habit.  Some have gone cold turkey, but most need assistance.  The first step is admitting that you're addicted to the applications.

[Bearhunter]

Pretty accurate Im surprised, they had my tag drawn down as the one applicant that drew on his second choice.

[bobcat]

                                             Number of applications:    2009                      2010
The cow elk hunts I applied for:                     #1               1122                    2193
                                                                #2               1771                    3846
                                                                #3                267                      444

[ramslam]

Where did the 2009 drawing results summery go to or am I overlooking it?

Unfortunately, it would take 10+ years to cycle through those with max points for sheep including those that have actually have "more than max". 

[bobcat]

Where did the 2009 drawing results summery go to or am I overlooking it?

They got rid of it quite a while ago. I wish I would have saved a copy of it. You can still get numbers of 2009 applicants from the 2010 regulation pamphlet.

[bobcat]

Toutle and Margaret bull elk permits actually did show slightly better odds of drawing:   2009                2010

                                                                                              Margaret          1:197             1:170
 
                                                                                               Toutle              1:24               1:20

[ramslam]

Sounds like someone should request it be put back up. 

[WABONEHNTR]

Where did the 2009 drawing results summery go to or am I overlooking it?

Unfortunately, it would take 10+ years to cycle through those with max points for sheep including those that have actually have "more than max". 

I understand the time frame but at least I would have a better chance to draw a tag.  I will never draw as long as the people with less than max pts keep getting the tags.  

[bobcat]

I understand the time frame but at least I would have a better chance to draw a tag.  I will never draw as long as the people with less than max pts keep getting the tags. 

MOST people will never draw a sheep tag in Washington. Look at the odds... it was 1 in 400 this year. So you should expect to draw a sheep tag one time in 400 years of applying.

The only way to improve odds is to either raise the cost of applying substantially, or do something like if a person applies for deer or elk permit, they cannot apply for moose, sheep, or goat.

[MuleySniper]

Wow! Only six points to draw the Swakane sheep tag? Funny how a local ended up with that "one" 

[ramslam]

My point was rolling the current system over to a preference point system would not be rational statistically when there are still only 37 permits and 14,000 applicants.

[mkcj]

CHEWUCH and PEARRYGIN didn't go up at all seems like everyone Else's area tripled but not these 2

[ramslam]

And I found the 2009 drawing summaries.

Here is sheep:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php


Here is elk:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php


I guess its time to compare to really see what the changes in the application process did to draw odds.  

[bobcat]

CHEWUCH and PEARRYGIN didn't go up at all seems like everyone Else's area tripled but not these 2

Most of the Quality hunts I have looked at the number of applicants decreased by about half.

This makes sense as the Quality applications went from having 4 choices to only 2 choices.

[MuleySniper]

 

[bobcat]

And I found the 2009 drawing summaries.

Here is sheep:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php


Here is elk:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php


I guess its time to compare to really see what the changes in the application process did to draw odds. 

Those are the Harvest Reports, not the Draw Result Summaries.   

[billythekidrock]

CHEWUCH and PEARRYGIN didn't go up at all seems like everyone Else's area tripled but not these 2

Most of the Quality hunts I have looked at the number of applicants decreased by about half.

This makes sense as the Quality applications went from having 4 choices to only 2 choices.

I noticed that the 3 local "Quality" buck permit applicants dropped by nearly 1/3. Not at much as I thought but still a significant drop.

[ramslam]

Oops, my bad.  I was surfing several pages and when I finally went back to cut and paste I grabbed the wrong links.

Here is sheep.  Its the detailed breakdown and not the summary.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/2009permit_summary_sheep.pdf

[jackelope]

1006          TUCANNON       1           1        474         4.00           1 0 0 0 5 468


 

[Ridgerunner]

Not bad, I got you beat though, 2002 applicants for one tag and it had my name on it, wow!

[Ridgerunner]

Looks like quality odds actually went up for the most part which doesn't surprise me, the desert hunt is only half as popular as it used to be.  Glad they finally posted these, now its time to crunch some numbers.

[bobcat]

I'm having a difficult time trying to wrap my brain around this, but it seems to me, as I've said in the past, that although the number of applications for each quality permit may have gone down, did the odds really go up? If you take the same number of people applying for quality hunts, and keep the same number of permits for those hunts, then how are odds going to increase? Sure it looks like the odds went up because each person is only putting in for two hunts instead of four. But I still believe odds will be about the same, overall (in the Quality categories.)

[jackelope]

I've never been able to even figure out how to calculate odds with our point system. Way too many variables with different # of points, etc.
You can figure out the average number of points it takes, but not the odds.
 

[Ridgerunner]

I think anyway you cut it odds are pretty long.  Way I look at it its a miniscule difference in terms of % odds but it gives me a little more hope that maybe I'll draw.  

[Lowedog]

Wow! Only six points to draw the Swakane sheep tag? Funny how a local ended up with that "one" 

So your saying it was fixed?  I wonder what I need to do to be the "one" to draw an OIL tag?  Ridgerunner, fill me in! 

[MuleySniper]

Wow! Only six points to draw the Swakane sheep tag? Funny how a local ended up with that "one" 

So your saying it was fixed?  I wonder what I need to do to be the "one" to draw an OIL tag?  Ridgerunner, fill me in! 

You said it. Not me.
I'm glad local got it otherwise we'd all have to hear some of you Wenatchee guys whine if a coasty ended up with it.

[Lowedog]

Don't be lumping me in with those Wenatchee guys!   

[MuleySniper]

  No really, I hope that guy kills a monster. Sounds like a good fellow from what I hear.
MS

[Bob33]

And I found the 2009 drawing summaries.

Here is sheep:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php


Here is elk:

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php


I guess its time to compare to really see what the changes in the application process did to draw odds. 

Those are the Harvest Reports, not the Draw Result Summaries.   

Here is the detailed 2009 sheep draw summary: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/2009permit_summary_sheep.pdf

[SkookumHntr]

The "Bull" hunts that were normally the easiest to draw are now the hardest Nice, I seen that one coming   If they merge the "Bull" and "Quality Bull" to just antlered and leave it at 2 choices that would be a excellent move for draw odds, I hope they make that change!

[uplandhunter870]

nice to see this posted, it appears as thought the odds got steeper on the tags that i see as resonable draws when id did a straight number of tags divided by no. of apps, the doe tag that i usually put in for went from a 30% chance of draw with an average point draw of 2.5ish now this year its at 6% chance and an average point draw of 4.5

increase draw odds my ---, its more like increased revenue with less payout to the supporters

[NRA4LIFE]

I posted this elsewhere a few months back, but what has happened is exactly what I predicted for cow tags in Eastern WA.  The days of drawing a cow tag every other or every third year are over.  What used to take 2 or 3 points is now 6 or 7 or more.  Look at the number of applications submitted for Little Naches, Umtanum ans Manastash.  Almost 11000 for those 3 units alone.

[hunter-4-life]

You also have to take in to consideration that alot of people had been saving points for years and only been putting in for the premier tags. And now that this year everyone all of a sudden got their points transferred between several categories and it don't hurt you to put in for other hunts besides the premier tags because you will only lose in the category/categories you drew for. so my prediction was that alot of people took their high number of points and applied for several hunts knowing that there would be a chance of drawing multiple permits. There for that would increase the number of applicants with high number points to put in for the permits that usually have a low average of points to draw the permit. So for example I saw that most cow elk hunts the average went up alot due to all the people that have been holding out for a bull tag. My prediction was right that this year we were going to see the averages go up and next year they should go down because alot of people wasted points by putting in for more than one permit knowing that they had great odds of drawing. Like putting in for a cow hunt with 10 points. Well anyway those are my thoughts on all this.

[Lowedog]

You also have to take in to consideration that alot of people had been saving points for years and only been putting in for the premier tags. And now that this year everyone all of a sudden got their points transferred between several categories and it don't hurt you to put in for other hunts besides the premier tags because you will only lose in the category/categories you drew for. so my prediction was that alot of people took their high number of points and applied for several hunts knowing that there would be a chance of drawing multiple permits. There for that would increase the number of applicants with high number points to put in for the permits that usually have a low average of points to draw the permit. So for example I saw that most cow elk hunts the average went up alot due to all the people that have been holding out for a bull tag. My prediction was right that this year we were going to see the averages go up and next year they should go down because alot of people wasted points by putting in for more than one permit knowing that they had great odds of drawing. Like putting in for a cow hunt with 10 points. Well anyway those are my thoughts on all this.

[Romulus]

I know you guys have a hard time understanding this but your points in our system are not as valuable as you think. They give you a better chance of drawing but not a GOOD chance. Take a sheep unit with 1200 applicants and 1 tag with avg points of 6 across the board you would have roughly 43000 chances in the hat with zero pts you have 1 in 43000 chance of drawing. Some guy with poacher pts has 20 pts but still has odds of only 1 in 100.  The only way to get better odds is to charge more money so the state can make what they are making now with less applicants. There is no other way unless you expect the state to give up the free money off the draws by making you pick a species. What is the benefit for them to get a lot less revenue so drawing odds will increase. The knucklehead meat hunters who thought this new system would help them get a bull tag and still get to hunt cows are now going to get to hunt cows every 5 years but still will never get a bull tag. But they get to spend more money. But its only 5 bucks a chance so they want a chance at everything. Lots of guys got what they wanted lets see if they still like it 5 or 10 years from now. Just my rant!

[NRA4LIFE]

You nailed it Romulus.  That was exactly my point in another thread.  Even the guys with max points right now still have crappy odds.  And what people don't realize is that the vast majotiry of us well NEVER get an OIL tag or a quality bull tag.  NEVER

[billythekidrock]

I posted this elsewhere a few months back, but what has happened is exactly what I predicted for cow tags in Eastern WA.  The days of drawing a cow tag every other or every third year are over.  What used to take 2 or 3 points is now 6 or 7 or more.  Look at the number of applications submitted for Little Naches, Umtanum ans Manastash.  Almost 11000 for those 3 units alone.

Yes, many of us predicted this. But ask D. Ware and he will tell you that the system is great. 

[Lowedog]

I referred to this awhile back when this discussion was going on.  Our chances of drawing quality or OIL tags are so low that the new system really had no impact on draw odds for quality or OIL.  Yeah, the antlerless hunts got worse odds this year but I think it will get closer to what it was in a year or two.  

I think what the last 2 posters don't realize is the vast majority do know what their chance of drawing one of these tags is.  It's like playing the lotto though, someone has got to win and if you don't play the game it won't be you!  

I'm all for a way to weed out the guys throwing their name in the hat just cause its cheap.  Try convincing the WDFW of that though...

[PA BEN]

You nailed it Romulus.  That was exactly my point in another thread.  Even the guys with max points right now still have crappy odds.  And what people don't realize is that the vast majotiry of us well NEVER get an OIL tag or a quality bull tag.  NEVER

I like the way the draw is now, I lost all my points 6 years ago to a 4th choice cow hunt. But they still need to work on getting the people w/more points to get drawn. Less people put in for the tag I drew this year, 131 last year and 100 this year, avg. points was 6, I went w/6 points. I can see a low number last year, first year of this tag, but the number should have gone up.

[Bob33]

You nailed it Romulus.  That was exactly my point in another thread.  Even the guys with max points right now still have crappy odds.  And what people don't realize is that the vast majotiry of us well NEVER get an OIL tag or a quality bull tag.  NEVER

OIL is a misnomer.  NIL is better: "Never In a Lifetime" for 99% of the hunters.

Special permits have become just another lottery.  People that play the game have a chance, just like buying a lottery ticket.

[InsideWDFW]

While cleaning up some old files, I came across a couple of spreadsheets I created to streamline the result publication/printing process.  Looking at this year's results it looks like they are still using them.  They should give you an idea on how the stats are created, and the process of what happens after the drawing is completed and verified.
http://www.mediafire.com/?e4cdo3y5timmdg5 and http://www.mediafire.com/?996rvsv9la9cgnj

The first file is where all the raw data from the WILD system is pasted into, and the second is the cleaned up version that gets posted at http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/.