Mule deer permit hunt

[fremont]

There's a difference between being SELECTED and GETTING THE HUNT YOU WANT.

The longest shot is getting selected, THEN having your #1 choice still available. 

If you're not too picky, then put down the maximum # of choices available for that type of hunt.

Unless this info is out there in the public domain (WDFW), then it's impossible to know what your statistical odds are of being picked, since data such as the average # of preference points for those selected tell you almost nothing.  If the average is 7 with 20 permits drawn, 10 winners may have had 13 points each and the other 10 having 1 point each.  The question is how many aggregate (in total) cumulative preference points are in the ENTIRE pool, divided by the number of applicants.  That would tell you the weighted average # of pref points per applicant, thus giving the applicant an idea of where they are on the histogram.

Speaking of a histogram, it would great if (assuming they don't) WDFW would disclose the # of applicants by preference points--as well as the winners--so we could do the math and see how far out on the right end of the distribution most of the winners really are.

[buckhorn2]

I just got mail from the guy who does all the hunting draw odds and permits for the state of oregon and wa. He said if I sent him the points I have for the hunts I want to put in for he would send me my odds of getting drawn. But I sent in last night but at least I will be able to see my odds. I still wish they would just pay money instead of points for turning in a poacher some guys got way to much advantage over most everyone. I am glad they turned them in but not so glad they get points. Some guys will never draw a tag or see a poacher.

[bobcat]

buckhorn- I have never heard of anyone who "does all the hunting draw odds" for Washington. Is it Ron Wold that you're talking about? I know he figures odds for Oregon and has his own website that shows all the odds. But I've never seen where he's done anything for this state.

[SkookumHntr]

I just got mail from the guy who does all the hunting draw odds and permits for the state of oregon and wa. He said if I sent him the points I have for the hunts I want to put in for he would send me my odds of getting drawn. But I sent in last night but at least I will be able to see my odds. I still wish they would just pay money instead of points for turning in a poacher some guys got way to much advantage over most everyone. I am glad they turned them in but not so glad they get points. Some guys will never draw a tag or see a poacher.

- Buckhorn I feel the same way! I wish they would just give money! Or at least not let the poacher points people go ahead of the guys that never drawn in 16+ years

[BOWHUNTER45]

Yeah I wish I had faith in this point system ...For one I drew a quality elk permit in 08 with 0 points and my buddys had many ..... second my boys have 9 pts for deer and I have put them in for Pearigin every year  since they have been hunting... 

[Bob33]

Speaking of a histogram, it would great if (assuming they don't) WDFW would disclose the # of applicants by preference points--as well as the winners--so we could do the math and see how far out on the right end of the distribution most of the winners really are.

2009 data: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html

[buckhorn2]

The guy who figures all those and permits is Kurt Steinke@ieee.org I don;t know how to post his report but if you pm me I could send it to you and maybe you could put it up but he does it every year for both states. I met him when he hunted behind my house with a master hunters tag. He works out of the abernathy hatchery below longview.

[Chesapeake]

I'll tell you the bottom line in draw odds.

You cant get drawn if your not in the draw.


You need to put in every year. No ghost points. Put in for a tag. Your best chance of increasing your odds is to enter more draws.

Example: Lets say your odds are 1:480 (probably pretty close). If you put in for 2 years your odds just doubled to 2:480.

Now some naysayer is going to say increasing your points from say 9 (81) to 10 (100) did more to increase your odds.

But it didnt, because all the rest of us added points just the same. The number of other peoples tickets in the pail goes up every year along with the number of your tickets. (of course this doesnt take into account the variables of people with points getting taken out of the draw by drawing, people entering the draw, ect..... because there is no way to do that, and there isnt enough reduction of points due to drawing to make a difference)

[Alan K]

I'll tell you the bottom line in draw odds.

You cant get drawn if your not in the draw.


You need to put in every year. No ghost points. Put in for a tag. Your best chance of increasing your odds is to enter more draws.

Example: Lets say your odds are 1:480 (probably pretty close). If you put in for 2 years your odds just doubled to 2:480.

Now some naysayer is going to say increasing your points from say 9 (81) to 10 (100) did more to increase your odds.

But it didnt, because all the rest of us added points just the same. The number of other peoples tickets in the pail goes up every year along with the number of your tickets. (of course this doesnt take into account the variables of people with points getting taken out of the draw by drawing, people entering the draw, ect..... because there is no way to do that, and there isnt enough reduction of points due to drawing to make a difference)

In general your odds actually do increase, at least when you get into the upper tier of points, even with everyone else's points increasing as well. If your points increase from 11 points to 12 points, and john doe's points increase from 3-4 points, the number of times your name is in the hat increased by 23, while john doe's only increased by 7. Now it's impossible to say what the change in the overall odds would be because of new people putting in and others putting in for other hunts, but in general you will slowly lose ground on people who have more points than you and gain ground on people with fewer than you.

[Romulus]

I'll tell you the bottom line in draw odds.

You cant get drawn if your not in the draw.


You need to put in every year. No ghost points. Put in for a tag. Your best chance of increasing your odds is to enter more draws.

Example: Lets say your odds are 1:480 (probably pretty close). If you put in for 2 years your odds just doubled to 2:480.

Now some naysayer is going to say increasing your points from say 9 (81) to 10 (100) did more to increase your odds.

But it didnt, because all the rest of us added points just the same. The number of other peoples tickets in the pail goes up every year along with the number of your tickets. (of course this doesnt take into account the variables of people with points getting taken out of the draw by drawing, people entering the draw, ect..... because there is no way to do that, and there isnt enough reduction of points due to drawing to make a difference)

The addition of points is the only thing potentially increasing your odds. If you are putting in for a hunt with 1 in 100 odds and you put in the following year you still have only 1 in 100 odds.

             

[Chesapeake]

In general your odds actually do increase, at least when you get into the upper tier of points, even with everyone else's points increasing as well. If your points increase from 11 points to 12 points, and john doe's points increase from 3-4 points, the number of times your name is in the hat increased by 23, while john doe's only increased by 7. Now it's impossible to say what the change in the overall odds would be because of new people putting in and others putting in for other hunts, but in general you will slowly lose ground on people who have more points than you and gain ground on people with fewer than you.

but in general you will slowly lose ground on people who have more points than you and gain ground on people with fewer than you.

You say it all when you say "slowly". You aint kidding there. There isnt neer enough tags in the best units to whittle down the 3 to 5k applicants each year. Pluss you get point collectors entering the best draws every year as units go through thier changes in quality.

My main point was, put in. If your going to collect points, do it trying for the best tags. Who knows, you might just draw.

[Curly]

But this year might be a good year to put in for ghost points if you don't think you can do a permit hunt justice due to not being able to afford the high price of gas this year...............

(I'm only going to put in for ghost points on moose because I don't think I can afford to spend the money on fuel if I were to get drawn).

[Skyvalhunter]

I am thinking most people should put in for ghost points!!

[Chesapeake]

Yes, there are life reasons to put in for ghost points.

[Alan K]

I dont think I can ever put in for a ghost point in the OIL categories. . . I'd sell some stuff or take a loan to pay for fuel for one of those hunts! The odds of drawing are so small that I feel obligated to have my name in the hat every year no matter what.