Montana apps

[Pathfinder101]

I think the odds are going to be a little tougher than most folks think, probably around 75-80% on the combo and 40% on the deer, just my opinion though. 

Didnt they have left overs left year? 
you think more people will apply this year then last?

They never have leftovers.  SOme of the people that draw drop out before the hunting season, and those tags go to the "alternates" (after the draw, they publish an "alternate" list.  If your number is high enough on the list, you may get a call in June or July saying that you got drawn as a alternate, and to come pay for your tag). 
Generally, the deer/elk combo had about a 45-50% draw rate.  Deer combo only was sitting around 20%.

[alwinearcher]

I think the odds are going to be a little tougher than most folks think, probably around 75-80% on the combo and 40% on the deer, just my opinion though.  

Didnt they have left overs left year?  
you think more people will apply this year then last?

They never have leftovers.  SOme of the people that draw drop out before the hunting season, and those tags go to the "alternates" (after the draw, they publish an "alternate" list.  If your number is high enough on the list, you may get a call in June or July saying that you got drawn as a alternate, and to come pay for your tag).  
Generally, the deer/elk combo had about a 45-50% draw rate.  Deer combo only was sitting around 20%.

Last year I heard from a couple people they had elk tags for sale to the general public last year starting in sept?

[Pathfinder101]

I think the odds are going to be a little tougher than most folks think, probably around 75-80% on the combo and 40% on the deer, just my opinion though. 

doe tags maybe.  Nothing else..

Didnt they have left overs left year? 
you think more people will apply this year then last?

They never have leftovers.  SOme of the people that draw drop out before the hunting season, and those tags go to the "alternates" (after the draw, they publish an "alternate" list.  If your number is high enough on the list, you may get a call in June or July saying that you got drawn as a alternate, and to come pay for your tag). 
Generally, the deer/elk combo had about a 45-50% draw rate.  Deer combo only was sitting around 20%.

Last year I heard from a couple people they had tags for sale to the general public last year starting in sept?

[JLS]

I think the odds are going to be a little tougher than most folks think, probably around 75-80% on the combo and 40% on the deer, just my opinion though. 

doe tags maybe.  Nothing else..

Didnt they have left overs left year? 
you think more people will apply this year then last?

They never have leftovers.  SOme of the people that draw drop out before the hunting season, and those tags go to the "alternates" (after the draw, they publish an "alternate" list.  If your number is high enough on the list, you may get a call in June or July saying that you got drawn as a alternate, and to come pay for your tag). 
Generally, the deer/elk combo had about a 45-50% draw rate.  Deer combo only was sitting around 20%.

Last year I heard from a couple people they had tags for sale to the general public last year starting in sept?

Yes, they have in fact had leftovers in the past, but these were from the Outfitter Sponsored pool of licenses.  These have now been put in with the rest of the NR combos for the drawing, so the odds are slim and none that there will be leftover tags.  When the OSL wouldn't sell out, they would offer them first come first served to the people who did not draw a NR combo that year.  These would typically go on sale in late August to mid September.  The only other leftover licenses would be doe/fawn tags that don't sell out in the special drawings.

[alwinearcher]

I think the odds are going to be a little tougher than most folks think, probably around 75-80% on the combo and 40% on the deer, just my opinion though. 

doe tags maybe.  Nothing else..

Didnt they have left overs left year? 
you think more people will apply this year then last?

They never have leftovers.  SOme of the people that draw drop out before the hunting season, and those tags go to the "alternates" (after the draw, they publish an "alternate" list.  If your number is high enough on the list, you may get a call in June or July saying that you got drawn as a alternate, and to come pay for your tag). 
Generally, the deer/elk combo had about a 45-50% draw rate.  Deer combo only was sitting around 20%.

Last year I heard from a couple people they had tags for sale to the general public last year starting in sept?

Yes, they have in fact had leftovers in the past, but these were from the Outfitter Sponsored pool of licenses.  These have now been put in with the rest of the NR combos for the drawing, so the odds are slim and none that there will be leftover tags.  When the OSL wouldn't sell out, they would offer them first come first served to the people who did not draw a NR combo that year.  These would typically go on sale in late August to mid September.  The only other leftover licenses would be doe/fawn tags that don't sell out in the special drawings.

Gotcha!
That makes sense.

[Ridgerunner]

LAst year had approximately 18000 apps for 11,500 combo tags.  Plus up to 5500 outfitter sponsored tags could be sold, of those I think around 4000 were sold.  the other 1500 became available to purchase(left over tags).

Now teh outfitter sponsor is gone so you've got a quoto of 17,000 but you have approximately 22000 applicants for those tags, now some will drop out due to the increase in fees but there will be at least 20000 applicants if not more.  Aint gonna be any leftover tags this year, yeah a few will get returned by guys who draw and can't make the hunt but I don't think its going to be anywhere near what it has been in prior years.

[Fletch]

I originally thought odds of drawing might be better for the deer only.  But I'm beginning to wonder if the $900+ dollar deer elk combo will really be too steep for some, so they will drop to the deer only pool...I guess it doesn't matter... I have too much fun there not to put in, so my money is on its way...for those of you who elected not too, thank you for the small but significant odds increase...hope to see you there next year!

[Bigshooter]

I think the odds are going to be a little tougher than most folks think, probably around 75-80% on the combo and 40% on the deer, just my opinion though. 

I think you are real close on your numbers.  I think it will be a little better.  85-90% for the deer, elk combo, and 45-50% for the deer combo.

[GoldTip]

There were also leftover tags in the "Family come home to hunt" tag pool last year.  Think there was not a lot of people who knew about that option and it's hard to go with that option if you are taking someone to montana who is not actually from there, then the former resident goes in one pool and the other NR goes in another with low odds.  I will be surprised if the odds get much better for generally drawing tags in Montana.  When I used to be a resident and there was 17,000 tags with no "Outfitter sponsored licenses" they still always sold them all.

[JLS]

There were also leftover tags in the "Family come home to hunt" tag pool last year.  Think there was not a lot of people who knew about that option and it's hard to go with that option if you are taking someone to montana who is not actually from there, then the former resident goes in one pool and the other NR goes in another with low odds.  I will be surprised if the odds get much better for generally drawing tags in Montana.  When I used to be a resident and there was 17,000 tags with no "Outfitter sponsored licenses" they still always sold them all.

But the price was about six bills less in those days too.  I fully expect a drop in the DIY applicants, but there also may be an increase in the folks applying that would have bought the Outfitter Sponsored License.  My guess (pure speculation) is 70-80% draw for no point applicants.