Magnum,
Not really. Consider the situation where your calculated odds were 1% in a draw. If there were 100 tags for that unit and 5000 applicants, if you multiplied by 100, then your chances would be 100% with the multiplying. Definitely not the case.
To expand on what NRA was saying.
If there were 100 tags available in a given draw and there were 5000 applicants (and those 5000 applicants with points squared, came to 50,000 applications in the draw).
And lets say we are talking about the person who has 10 points in the draw.
100(tags) divided by 50000(applications) = .2% per application in the draw.
.2% X 100(how many times the 10 point holder's name is in the hat) = 20%
20% chance of drawing the tag is what that 10 point holder has bestowed upon themselves in this scenario.
I'll give another example.......
2009 Peaches A tag:
129 tags
3626 Applicants
67,738 Applications in the draw
129 / 67,738 = .1904% per Application
The 642 1 point applicants had .19% chance of drawing. And there was 1 very lucky person!!!
The 385 5 pointers had a 4.76% chance. 13 of which scored!
The 36 10 pointers had a 19.04% chance. 13 of these also hit the home run. 36% success here way exceeded the 19.04% odds.
The 3 who had 13 points (32.18%) and the 2 who had 16 points (48.75%) went spike hunting.
The moral, as stated previously in this thread, the more tags available the better the odds.
What needs to be considered is, for example, 10% of the tags should go to the individual(s) with the most points. 1st selection drives where they would pull there tag. Have a draw for the top point app's if the app's exceed the 10% tag number.
The remaining 90% and the top 10% who did not get there tag awarded could stay in the system and draw as presently set up.
This would fix the States perception of chance at drawing. Because right now, if the top point people do not get drawn it continues to send the odds of drawing spiraling down.
I know this. I have tracked this stuff since 1999 in 3 other GMU's beyond Peaches. As my points in the bank go up, my odds have not always gone up likewise. Some years go up very minor, others take a 3-5% jump. Next year might only be a 1.5% jump.
Permits available, in Peaches for example in 01 and 03 which were under 100, have had an affect on this. What also had a greater affect on this were the years that a lot of top point holders were successful. 2009, for example, was not a good year for plucking out top point holders to help out the odds down the line.
It will be interesting to see what the tag choice changes did to the odds when the WDFW posts their 2010 draw stats. My gut says it got a whole lot worse in most if not all areas. But it won't be significant in the first year because those 1 point people really do not have a whole lot of "disruption" to the draw odds. Over time, as their points grow, it most definitely will have a negative affect on the odds for the people near the top and deserving of that tag.
