What would you do with 23 elk points?

[Bob33]

I would like to see this odds Formula my self. Please post it......

We havea guy in our camp  that draws a cow tag, almost every other year.........luck SOB

Here is how I would compute the odds.

Use Dayton hunt #2006 as an example.  The regulations indicate there were 30 permits and 1677 applicants.  (The reality is that some of the 1677 applicants may have been drawn for other hunts, so there were not 1677 applicants competing for the Dayton tag. )

Assume there were in fact 1677 applicants.  Each of the 1677 applicants has 7.5 points.  That means each of the 1677 applicants has about 56 (7.5x7.5) names in the "hat".  That means there are a total of 56x1677 = 93,912 names in the hat.

Mr. Halo has 23 points, so he has 23*23 = 529 names in the hat.  His odds of getting the first tag drawn are about 529 / 93912, or about 1 in 177.

On the second name being drawn, his odds are a bit better because the person drawn first is no longer eligible.  That means there are 56 fewer eligible names in the hat.  On the second draw, Mr. Halo’s odds are now 529 / 93856.

This process continues until Mr. Halo is drawn, or until the 30 tags are given out.  

Assuming that each draw provides Mr. Halo with a 1 in 177 odds of being drawn, his odds of not being drawn for any of the 30 permits is (176/177)^30 which equals .84.  That means he has an 84% chance of not being drawn, which means he has about a 16% chance of being drawn.

Real simple!

[Halo]

Thats it Bob33 I had if estimated at 16.56%

[Alan K]

I personally would draw a Nooksack tag, or similar to get a trophy Roosie.  There are LOTS of other states you can go to to get a nice Rocky Mtn. and only a couple really for Roosevelts.

If you couldn't tell, I'm not much of an east side guy. 

[BoomWhop]

Blues, foothills 178,   or Dayton

[bobcat]

If he has 23 points now he will have 24 in the drawing this year, so 24x24 = 576 names in the hat.

[Halo]

Bearhunter I hope you are right on my odds being better but I dont think so, It was a bit of a surprise for me too with the low odds. As far as aquiring the points, lets just say I had 13 and stumbled into some more and a picture is worth a thousand words.

[STIKNSTRINGBOW]

I could be wrong, or ruining your guys secret, but as far as I know Quinalt is going from 1 permit to 5, where did you hear it was gone ??

[Bearhunter]

Nooksack bulls are not a true Rosey, you need to go to the coast to get a true pure strain Rosey....

[Ridgerunner]

I think his odds are higher than the 16%, I would probably call it in the 30% range but I don't have a formula to prove it but based on numbers I've seen I am confident his odds are greater than 16%.

[grundy53]

I could be wrong, or ruining your guys secret, but as far as I know Quinalt is going from 1 permit to 5, where did you hear it was gone ??

Billythekidrock...... 

[STIKNSTRINGBOW]

Dungeness might not be too bad either, have you been through sequim lately...?

[Alan K]

Nooksack bulls are not a true Rosey, you need to go to the coast to get a true pure strain Rosey....

Maybe for the record books, but most people consider elk anywhere on the west side as Roosevelt. Whether their coastal roosie or cascade roosie it doesn't make a huge difference to 'em.    

I'm not much for scoring/record books either.  

[Bob33]

If he has 23 points now he will have 24 in the drawing this year, so 24x24 = 576 names in the hat.

True.  But then wouldn't the 7.5 pointers have 8.5 points?

Computing the odds precisely is simply not possible, because you can't know how many points the other applicants have. 

[Alan K]

Where are you guys getting the 7.5? Is that just a made up thing or is that the average points for someone drawing the tag?

[bucklucky]

30% of the elk in the blues have Roosevelt blood, does that help  Blues man, go for the blues. You wont regret it.