What would you do with 23 elk points?

[jackelope]

Where are you guys getting the 7.5? Is that just a made up thing or is that the average points for someone drawing the tag?

Exactly....ding ding ding....you could pull any # out of your arse and use it. Simply put, you've got waaaaayyyyy better odds with 23 points than anyone else. Thats about as accurate as it gets.

[Curly]

 

[teanawayslayer]

I wouldn't worry to much about the odds.  In the system that wdfw uses is a load of crap.  I have been drawn several times for deer tags with next to no points.  Like this past year I was drawn for the alta quality deer. I had 2 points.  I talked to several guys on the hunt that had been puting in for this hunt for 10 to 15 years.  jjhunter on here had only 2 points also. Like last year I put in for a cow tag in 336 had 6 points going in a buddy had 1.  He got the tag and I did not.  Deffinetly with 23 points I would say you would have a good shot at what every you put in for.  I am just saying that the system they use is not fair and do not believe it is a very weighted system.  I am not complaining because I have been drawn for several hunts with a low point count.  I just think I should be a little more fair to everyone!

[MtnMuley]

I will guarantee you have an EMXTREMLY higher chance of getting drawn with 23 points, than with 2 points when applying for any quality bull tag.

[MIKEXRAY]

I would put in for any of the new east side Sept rifle permits. There are great bulls in all of those areas, and with rifle during the rut I don't see how you couldn't tag a great bull. After reading everyones statistics I think your odds are better than what everyone is calculating. Good luck with what ever you chose. Mike

[yelp]

How do you calculate odds in a bonus point system without knowing how many points each of the applicants has when they select a particular unit. I used to be a math geek and I've not been able to figure it out.

I don't think you will ever know how many will put in for any given permit until after the drawing. I would assume that your odds maybe better on the lower number of applicant permits.  For example.  The sept. bull rifle tags.    I would also take advantage of putting in for cow tags also.

hello?  lol

[Ridgerunner]

If he really wants to get drawn he'll put in as a partnership with me, combine our points and we'd still have 14 or 15.  Throw in my luck in pulling great tags and he'd be going elk hunting in the blues this year.   LOL. 

[WSU]

I would like to see this odds Formula my self. Please post it......

We havea guy in our camp  that draws a cow tag, almost every other year.........luck SOB

Here is how I would compute the odds.

Use Dayton hunt #2006 as an example.  The regulations indicate there were 30 permits and 1677 applicants.  (The reality is that some of the 1677 applicants may have been drawn for other hunts, so there were not 1677 applicants competing for the Dayton tag. )

Assume there were in fact 1677 applicants.  Each of the 1677 applicants has 7.5 points.  That means each of the 1677 applicants has about 56 (7.5x7.5) names in the "hat".  That means there are a total of 56x1677 = 93,912 names in the hat.

Mr. Halo has 23 points, so he has 23*23 = 529 names in the hat.  His odds of getting the first tag drawn are about 529 / 93912, or about 1 in 177.

On the second name being drawn, his odds are a bit better because the person drawn first is no longer eligible.  That means there are 56 fewer eligible names in the hat.  On the second draw, Mr. Halo’s odds are now 529 / 93856.

This process continues until Mr. Halo is drawn, or until the 30 tags are given out.  

Assuming that each draw provides Mr. Halo with a 1 in 177 odds of being drawn, his odds of not being drawn for any of the 30 permits is (176/177)^30 which equals .84.  That means he has an 84% chance of not being drawn, which means he has about a 16% chance of being drawn.

Real simple!

I usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect.  Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately.  The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit).

[greenhead_killer]

i only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.

[Skyvalhunter]

If he really wants to get drawn he'll put in as a partnership with me, combine our points and we'd still have 14 or 15.  Throw in my luck in pulling great tags and he'd be going elk hunting in the blues this year.   LOL. 

Or maybe 2075 is more like it.

[jackmaster]

i only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.

dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfw

[Ridgerunner]

I hadn't heard of anyone rigging the system, tell us more. 

[yelp]

i only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.

dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfw

Really..gotta hear more about this!

[Curly]

Seems like I heard something about that before, but someone had dispelled it as just being rumors.  I would like to hear more though.

[400out]

i only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.

dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfw

Really..gotta hear more about this!

:yeah:I'm all eyes