What would you do with 23 elk points?

[6x6in6]

I prefer to think of it as the WDFW's version of bait and switch.
Like Bob33 said, the 23 points give him basically a 1% drawing chance.
Yet, if you look at the 2010 Dayton Quality results, it says the average points to draw was 8.17.  Here in lies the bait in switch.  It's just the average of the successful ones points.  Not the true draw odds.  People who see this 8.17 think that since I have 4 points now, only 4-5 more years to go.  Wrong!!!!  So they keep playing the game.  WDFW bait taken.
If the WDFW actually posted what the the draw odds were, based on the applications received and squared, the revenue generating tool for the WDFW just went in the tank, I would venture to guess.  There's the switch.
Realistically, it's better than playing the Mega Lotto odds wise from a chance at winning. But 1% vs .xxxx% for the Mega is still a minuscule chance at winning either.

And yes, guilty as charged!!!  I keep playing the game thinking that someday I might pull the hail Mary yet I understand that I will more than likely go to my grave with a train load of points in the deer, elk and OIL tag categories.  Every year I say "I'm done" but I keep getting sucked in every year on a gee, what if..........
 
It is cheap entertainment on top of the license fees for the what if factor though.

[NRA4LIFE]

6X6, you hit the nail on the head.  I have been harping about this on other threads.  When you do some simple calculations on draw odds and consider the number of tags and how many people are applying, most of us will never draw a deer, quality elk or OIL tag in our lifetimes.  And yet yes, we all still put in because "someone has to win", right?  I'd bet that in most cases, your odds are better by buying a couple raffle tickets every year that facing the odds of the draw.

[Bob33]

6X6, you hit the nail on the head.  I have been harping about this on other threads.  When you do some simple calculations on draw odds and consider the number of tags and how many people are applying, most of us will never draw a deer, quality elk or OIL tag in our lifetimes.  And yet yes, we all still put in because "someone has to win", right?  I'd bet that in most cases, your odds are better by buying a couple raffle tickets every year that facing the odds of the draw.

Most quality tags are OIL, if you are lucky.  More likely, they are NOIL.  The addiction continues...

[arees]

I tried to put together a spreadsheet to take a swag a the odds for elk.  I used WDFW's data from here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html just using the number of applicants which ignores the effects of group applications.  This also ignores whether you get your first choice (or any choice if all your choices are already taken).  The numbers I get are hopefully attached to this post.  It is also completely meaningless now that WDFW has added so many more choices.

The bottom line is that someone with 26 points had about a 0.0707% chance of being drawn.  This was only 676 times better than a first time applicant who has about a 0.0001% chance.  I hope this convinces you all to just give up now.  It will improve my odds, but not by much  .

[6x6in6]

Pathetic that a max point holder has a whopping .02% chance.
But hey, it's a chance.
WDFW wins $$$$$$$$$$$$

[6x6in6]

6X6, you hit the nail on the head.  I have been harping about this on other threads.  When you do some simple calculations on draw odds and consider the number of tags and how many people are applying, most of us will never draw a deer, quality elk or OIL tag in our lifetimes.  And yet yes, we all still put in because "someone has to win", right?  I'd bet that in most cases, your odds are better by buying a couple raffle tickets every year that facing the odds of the draw.

Most quality tags are OIL, if you are lucky.  More likely, they are NOIL.  The addiction continues...

An antlerless tag is darn near an OIL, effective last year. 

[FWilliams]

6X6, you hit the nail on the head.  I have been harping about this on other threads.  When you do some simple calculations on draw odds and consider the number of tags and how many people are applying, most of us will never draw a deer, quality elk or OIL tag in our lifetimes.  And yet yes, we all still put in because "someone has to win", right?  I'd bet that in most cases, your odds are better by buying a couple raffle tickets every year that facing the odds of the draw.

and than there are the guys that just keep drawing tags every 3 or 4 years.......

[Pathfinder101]

I tried to put together a spreadsheet to take a swag a the odds for elk.  I used WDFW's data from here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html just using the number of applicants which ignores the effects of group applications.  This also ignores whether you get your first choice (or any choice if all your choices are already taken).  The numbers I get are hopefully attached to this post.  It is also completely meaningless now that WDFW has added so many more choices.

The bottom line is that someone with 26 points had about a 0.0707% chance of being drawn.  This was only 676 times better than a first time applicant who has about a 0.0001% chance.  I hope this convinces you all to just give up now.  It will improve my odds, but not by much  .

I am not a mathematican, but that can't possibly be right, can it?  I mean, if you have 23 points, you are much more likely than that to draw.  Does this table assume that everyone in the state is putting in for the exact same hunt you are? 
If you only have a 0.07% chance of being drawn, then statistically it would take you over 100 years to draw the tag, right?

[trophyhunt]

This is really getting depressing.......every year in the past I put in I've always felt like I have a decent chance. Especially after my points got into the double digits, but if the above calculations are right- then the system is f'd. They need to change this up a bit, guys shouldn't be waiting soooo long while some people draw year after year.

[bucklucky]

I say Drop all points and make it even , then there is no bitching . 

[huntnnw]

So for all the people on here who rip the WA permit system.. please tell us how it should be done? I am alll for no pt system,but if we are going to have one I wanna be in a system where u have a chance with one point, and at the same time u have even better chance with more points. Start applying in CO or UT and WY pretty soon and it will take u 30+ years to draw the high end LE tags, your screwed if u just started not a system I want here

[Skyvalhunter]

No point system probably won't happen. Some people need incentive to turn in law breakers. The current system seems to be fine as long as their is no shady buisness.

[bucklucky]

No point system probably won't happen. Some people need incentive to turn in law breakers. The current system seems to be fine as long as their is no shady buisness.

Catch a  poacher get a tag ?? I wonder how many poaachers get cought and convicted where there are points given to an individual each year. Tell you what , that would be some good incentive if they gave me a tag for turning in a poacher. Could really care less about the points.

[Alan K]

I'll take my chances knowing I have a 200+ times better chance to draw than the next guy who has 1 point.  The reason the guys with few points draw the number of tags they do is just the sheer number of them.  You're still X times more likely to draw than any other 1 person with fewer points than you.  Your overall odds might look slim with max points but if you look at it relatively, they're still a heck of a lot better than anyone with fewer points than you.

[Alan K]

Also, on the spectrum of no points (Idaho) to max points only (Colorado), we're very much closer to Idaho, which a lot of you guys are saying we should go to? It's damn near random by the looks of it, but having points DOES increase your chances in some capacity.