What would you do with 23 elk points?

[Bob33]

I tried to put together a spreadsheet to take a swag a the odds for elk.  I used WDFW's data from here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html just using the number of applicants which ignores the effects of group applications.  This also ignores whether you get your first choice (or any choice if all your choices are already taken).  The numbers I get are hopefully attached to this post.  It is also completely meaningless now that WDFW has added so many more choices.

The bottom line is that someone with 26 points had about a 0.0707% chance of being drawn.  This was only 676 times better than a first time applicant who has about a 0.0001% chance.  I hope this convinces you all to just give up now.  It will improve my odds, but not by much  .

I am not a mathematican, but that can't possibly be right, can it?  I mean, if you have 23 points, you are much more likely than that to draw.  Does this table assume that everyone in the state is putting in for the exact same hunt you are? 
If you only have a 0.07% chance of being drawn, then statistically it would take you over 100 years to draw the tag, right?

I don't understand it.  The odds are better than what is shown there.

[Bob33]

And don't, forget: some lucky dog's gonna win!

Dog - Washington's Lottery TV commercial

[huntnnw]

NV and WA in my eyes have the best draw system. The other states are a joke! and something will have to be done in the future, cause all the kids getting into the hunting world dont have a chance at the current sytems in place in these states... going to piss alot of hunters off one day

[bobcat]

The problem is everybody is looking at odds for the most popular permits in the quality category. Try applying for the permits that have a high number available, and the ones that get relatively less applications. Your odds will be much better. When you're only applying for a hunt that has 1 permit, and it gets three thousand applications, well just don't expect to draw it in your lifetime. Look at hunts that have 30, 40, 50 permits, not just 1 or 2. Your odds go up dramatically.

[dscubame]

What would I do with 23 elk points?  I would hunt elk!

[bobcat]

Our draw system was one of the best until they screwed it up last year with all the unnecessary categories, and giving out free points to people in all the additional categories was unfair to those who had recently drawn a permit and had their points go to zero. The only thing that would make it better would be to do away with most, or all, of the general season hunts and add thousands more permits. Then many of the "never in a lifetime" hunts just might become "once in a lifetime."

[huntnnw]

yup! and WDFW says its was in response to increase draw odds please explain!!   The way to increase was toup the price per permit and limit it to 2 choices! or 1!

[Skyvalhunter]

Lets face it they just wanted to get more money comming in.

[dscubame]

Our draw system was one of the best until they screwed it up last year with all the unnecessary categories, and giving out free points to people in all the additional categories was unfair to those who had recently drawn a permit and had their points go to zero. The only thing that would make it better would be to do away with most, or all, of the general season hunts and add thousands more permits. Then many of the "never in a lifetime" hunts just might become "once in a lifetime."

I like the fact that I can put in for other tags and keep my points for my desirable hunts.

[bobcat]

yup! and WDFW says its was in response to increase draw odds please explain!!   The way to increase was toup the price per permit and limit it to 2 choices! or 1!

Well, NOW they are increasing the price! If only they could have just done that last year and left the draw system as it was.  

[bobcat]

Our draw system was one of the best until they screwed it up last year with all the unnecessary categories, and giving out free points to people in all the additional categories was unfair to those who had recently drawn a permit and had their points go to zero. The only thing that would make it better would be to do away with most, or all, of the general season hunts and add thousands more permits. Then many of the "never in a lifetime" hunts just might become "once in a lifetime."

I like the fact that I can put in for other tags and keep my points for my desirable hunts.

I like that too, but I'd be willing to sacrifice that in order to improve the quality AND quantity of our deer and elk herds. Of course, I do realize there is the issue of tribal hunting which does make it hard for us to cut back on our hunting just so they can kill more and bigger animals.

[Bob33]

I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings.  I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.

[dscubame]

I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings.  I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.

I spend more on lunch on a daily basis.  Really?

[bobcat]

I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings.  I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.

I think they just might apply for hunts that they have a more realistic chance of drawing.

[huntnnw]

the hardest tag in the state to draw became the antlerless moose tag