What would you do with 23 elk points?

[bobcat]

the hardest tag in the state to draw became the antlerless moose tag

That is not far from the truth!   

They didn't need an additional antlerless moose category! There should only be ONE moose category! 

[Bob33]

I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings.  I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.

I spend more on lunch on a daily basis.  Really?

If you have unlimited funds, your odds for several species are probably better buying raffle tickets.

[dscubame]

I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings.  I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.

I spend more on lunch on a daily basis.  Really?

If you have unlimited funds, your odds for several species are probably better buying raffle tickets.

Not unlimited?? just enough for lunch every day.

[Bob33]

I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings.  I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.

I spend more on lunch on a daily basis.  Really?

If you have unlimited funds, your odds for several species are probably better buying raffle tickets.

Not unlimited?? just enough for lunch every day.

[Magnum_Willys]

You need to multiply the oods shown in the chart by the number of tags available right ? Say for the Margaret thats 18 times better odds than shown. 

[NRA4LIFE]

Magnum,

Not really.  Consider the situation where your calculated odds were 1% in a draw.  If there were 100 tags for that unit and 5000 applicants, if you multiplied by 100, then your chances would be 100% with the multiplying.  Definitely not the case.

[6x6in6]

Magnum,

Not really.  Consider the situation where your calculated odds were 1% in a draw.  If there were 100 tags for that unit and 5000 applicants, if you multiplied by 100, then your chances would be 100% with the multiplying.  Definitely not the case.

To expand on what NRA was saying.
If there were 100 tags available in a given draw and there were 5000 applicants (and those 5000 applicants with points squared, came to 50,000 applications in the draw).
And lets say we are talking about the person who has 10 points in the draw.
100(tags) divided by 50000(applications) = .2% per application in the draw.
.2% X 100(how many times the 10 point holder's name is in the hat) = 20%
20% chance of drawing the tag is what that 10 point holder has bestowed upon themselves in this scenario.

I'll give another example.......
2009 Peaches A tag:
129 tags
3626 Applicants
67,738 Applications in the draw
129 / 67,738 = .1904% per Application
The 642 1 point applicants had .19% chance of drawing.  And there was 1 very lucky person!!!
The 385 5 pointers had a 4.76% chance.  13 of which scored!
The 36 10 pointers had a 19.04% chance.  13 of these also hit the home run.  36% success here way exceeded the 19.04% odds.
The 3 who had 13 points (32.18%) and the 2 who had 16 points (48.75%) went spike hunting.

The moral, as stated previously in this thread, the more tags available the better the odds.

What needs to be considered is, for example, 10% of the tags should go to the individual(s) with the most points.  1st selection drives where they would pull there tag.  Have a draw for the top point app's if the app's exceed the 10% tag number.
The remaining 90% and the top 10% who did not get there tag awarded could stay in the system and draw as presently set up.
This would fix the States perception of chance at drawing.  Because right now, if the top point people do not get drawn it continues to send the odds of drawing spiraling down.  
I know this.  I have tracked this stuff since 1999 in 3 other GMU's beyond Peaches.  As my points in the bank go up, my odds have not always gone up likewise.  Some years go up very minor, others take a 3-5% jump.  Next year might only be a 1.5% jump.  
Permits available, in Peaches for example in 01 and 03 which were under 100, have had an affect on this.  What also had a greater affect on this were the years that a lot of top point holders were successful.  2009, for example, was not a good year for plucking out top point holders to help out the odds down the line.

It will be interesting to see what the tag choice changes did to the odds when the WDFW posts their 2010 draw stats.  My gut says it got a whole lot worse in most if not all areas.  But it won't be significant in the first year because those 1 point people really do not have a whole lot of "disruption" to the draw odds.  Over time, as their points grow, it most definitely will have a negative affect on the odds for the people near the top and deserving of that tag.

[arees]

Clearly I should have stayed awake during my statistics class.  In my previous table I calculated to odds of being the first person drawn which is not really very meaningful.

I put together the numbers again to estimate you chances of having your choices looked at.  As I read the WDFW site, all the applications for elk tags were in the same bucket with first time applicants having one ticket in the bucket and 10 time applicants having 100 tickets etc.  Tickets are pulled one at a time and then all the choices of that application are checked to see if they are still available.

This means that some of the high point applicants shown for Peaches Ridge that did not get that tag may have gotten some other tag.  They might not have had Peaches Ridge as their first choice or they may have been drawn after all of the Peaches Ridge tags were given away and got one of their other choices.

So here is the table again showing approximate odds of having your application considered.  The actual odds are somewhat better because this assumes constant odds for each of the draws while your odds improve slightly each time another applicant is drawn and pulled out of the pool.  It also doesn't account for people who will be drawn but find that all of their choices are all ready taken.  There are too many variables to do this with high accuracy.

Finally, this is just the approximate odds for having your application drawn, you may still find that all of your choices are already taken.  It does show that the high point people have a high chance of having their choices considered, but if you put Peaches Ridge as your only choice, you may find that you are drawn but still get nothing.

[NRA4LIFE]

We're all screwed.

[Ridgerunner]

Quit applying, the odds of drawing are terrible, save your money.  I love all the efforts to try to figure out draw odds, I've got my own too but in the end I think it takes a little luck still.

[NRA4LIFE]

Quit applying, the odds of drawing are terrible, save your money.  I love all the efforts to try to figure out draw odds, I've got my own too but in the end I think it takes a little luck still.

That coming from a guy who's almost out of OIL tags.  Sheesh.  There's another poster on this thread who's the luckiest SOB in WA draws.  2 or 3 cow tags and a bull tag to my zip, zero, nada.

[6x6in6]

 

[STIKNSTRINGBOW]

I guess it all boils down to luck, and what your choices are....
I have been applying for tags since before the "points" system started, getting my refund check was usually my way of saving fuel money for hunting season...
I drew Elk permits the first year, and with 6 points the second time, and 6 points the third time, both times on my first choice (336,340)
I drew deer in 4 different hunts during the same time period, and Bear last year (5 points)
OIL permits still elude me, and I really don't expect to be drawn, but when I get 6 points for Elk again, I will apply for Multi, and hope to get drawn for Observatory again....
Peaches would be cool, and it has been my second choice, but I do not know it as well as the Manastash....

[Ridgerunner]

I think on OIL tags luck is significantly involved but I do believe that guys who play the game faithfully and smartly will draw the deer and elk hunts multiple times as others have demonstrated. 

[NRA4LIFE]

And then there's the rest of us..........