The Predator Spiral! HAPPENING NOW HERE!

[Wyoming08]

  I read this on The Eastmans Journal...It's starting here now and I think Most of us saw a dramatic change in species numbers this year especially.

The Predator Death Spiral…
Nov 22 2011

The Western States management systems are not set up to handle uncontrolled, "Super Predators".
We’re continuing to see an alarming trend in Western wildlife management. I am calling it the “Predator Death Spiral.” The underlying cause of this phenomina is when a wildlife agency attempts to hide or “pad” their big game population estimates when over predation begins to take hold. This in turn creates a downward spiral that cannot easily be avoided, and is often not even noticed until the state hits both a financial and PR rock bottom. Idaho was the first state to hit the wall with the “Spiral” followed by Montana and now Wyoming has begun to slip into the Spiral’s grip. The wolf situation has caused these three Western states to slide down the jagged slope of diminishing herds, shrinking revenues and bad PR among their customers and financial lifeline…out-of-state hunters.

The details of the spiral start out very subtle. The wolves, cougars and grizzly bears start to take a few more elk and moose each year as their unchecked populations grow and expand. The state does not react at first with cuts in the tag quotas. This would mean a decrease in revenue that would have to be met with either more tags somewhere else or even worse, budget cuts. So they do what most Government agencies would do in this situation…nothing! After a few years of turning a blind eye to the situation a bad winter like the winter we had in 2006 and 2011 hit and further accelerated the problem. But, the bad winter was even worse than imagined from a wildlife management perspective. The increased snowpack and cold temps caused far more than the usual winter kill. The predators did extremely well because of the increased snowpack that gathered the herds even tighter than usual, on heavy snow accumulations that created a wolves dream come true scenario. A concentrated food source stuck in a snow bank that cannot escape…perfect. After the long cold winter is over the elk and deer that did survive go into the spring in tough shape. Many of the cows and does have aborted their young in order to survive.

The post winter mortality counts come back into the department as an alarming number. But budgets have to be met. So being ever optimistic the state decides to give the remaining quotas just one more year to see if they might bounce back. After-all, the counts could have been flawed, there is no way we could have lost that many big game assets in one year, right?

The next fall the hunters are complaining, the harvest stats are coming back very low and things are not looking good on the PR front. Many non-resident hunters are threatening not to apply the following year and the outfitters are starting to make their voices heard.

The state reacts, and cuts the elk tags inside the wolf  and winter zones. But the money has to be made up somewhere, after all a few hundred non-resident elk tags equate to big money. So the state moves to increase the quotas on elk outside the wolf zone and increase the deer and antelope tags substantially in an effort to compensate for the loss in revenue.


As wolves continue to take their toll, state Game and Fish Departments struggle to make their budgets as big game populations plummet and demand for non-resident licenses crash.

A second harsh winter strikes and wipes out the antelope and deer herd excesses. Things are looking bad, but the state budgeteers don’t give up easily. Someone recommends the idea of raising license costs to all hunters, after all supply and demand economics formulas say a non-resident elk tag should go for over $2,500. But the resident tag increases get shot down by the commission but everyone likes the idea of sticking to the non-resident hunter a bit more. They can afford it, have you seen how much a house in California is worth? (pre-2008 of course). The following fall the hunters don’t see near the game they did even the previous year. Things are getting bad. Thanks to the internet the word gets out and many of the non-resident hunters move their camps and non-resident dollars to Colorado and New Mexico to hunt elk and deer.

The next thing the state knows, they are sitting on millions of dollars worth of unclaimed and unwanted non-resident tags. Now with the wildlife resource in shambles and a multi-million dollar budget shortfall the state is finally forced to wake up and smell the coffee. This isn’t the 1970′s…it’s no surprise to us that a non-resident hunter who pays over $1,000 for an elk tag expects a good elk hunt, why should it come as a surprise to the state Game and Fish Commission? But it does. What the state fails to realize is, that once they began to charge that kind of money for tags and preference points they in affect gave up the option to simply brush it off as a “bad winter, try again next year” excuse that worked so well in the past.  In the information age non-resident hunters no longer accept excuses easily.

This is the bottom. A state is stuck to come clean and admit they are in a real hole. They don’t have the wildlife any longer to support their budgetary needs and their customers know it. This is the type of situation where a little fudge in numbers here and there has created a beast that cannot be controlled and is getting bigger, badder and uglier every year until the bottom is hit.

Why? Because it would mean that the states would have to admit to contributing to their own financial demise. Some Western Fish and Game Departments have in fact become a wolf in sheep’s clothing to their constituants. Some inside the departments have, although reluctantly, in some cases went along with the Federal Government’s master plan to re-introduce super predators back into the ecosystem to eventually control big game herds without the use of hunters. It’s almost as if the state neglected to realize that this would, in fact, slit their own throats by gutting their departments of the necessary funding to run.

And this is not just a Wyoming, Montana and Idaho problem. Wolves have already begun to take hold in Washington, Oregon and Utah. Nevada, and Colorado are certainly next. And for all of you midwest whitetail hunters out there, sorry, your not safe either. The government has devised a plan to expand the Mexican wolf North from Arizona and New Mexico into Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, North and South Dakota and Nebraska to connect with the upper midwest wolf populations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This would give super predators a way to control whitetail deer populations minus the use of hunting as a management tool.

This is a critical situation but all is not lost yet. There have been huge strides made in the recent wolf debate and wolves are starting to be controlled now in Montana and Idaho. We all as hunters need to keep pressure on our politicians and state agencies to make sure they do the right thing for our wildlife. We pay them to manage our wildlife resource in a responsible manner, make them earn their money. Taking the easy way out is not good enough. They need to do better, our big game wildlife resource depends on it.

Drop me a line and let me know what your thoughts are…maybe I’m just a conspiracy theorist…who knows. I know what I’ve heard and seen first hand so far, though, and it’s not looking good.

Guy

[Machias]

Bullseye!

[longstevo]

So again, and I always wonder this every time I read one of these articles...

Just what can WE do?  We're all a bunch of unorganized blue collar workers/hunters after all.  I know my words wouldn't be heard on Washington's capitol hill.  Is writing our representatives really going to be enough?  They're all lying sacks anyways, and would tell us that they support our issue, while turning around and voting the other way. 

I think we're kinda screwed no matter what.

[Humptulips]

If you don't let them know how you feel they'll never know. One voice seems like nothing but added with your breathren it matters. That's why we must all speak up.
If they vote against your opinion then help to vote them out.

[wraithen]

We can do our part to work our asses of to fill our tags for all predators we're drawn for

[ICEMAN]

I sure hope we find a way to recover from this. What a horrible legacy to leave our kids.

[Dave Workman]

Wyoming...

Link please

L-I-N-K!!!!!


This is essentially what I and others have been saying. I just haven't bothered to put it in writing so succinctly.

[Special T]

1 JOIN WFW! upper RH corner...You can join for FREE!
2 VOTE Vote a GOV in that will address WDFW issues, and is pro hunter. Kick Murrey and Cantwell out vote some one else in!
3 write your state congressmen and make them aware or your concern.
4 Tell your Congressional REP that you want the wolves taken off the ESA and the ESA needs to be changed /fixed.

[longstevo]

Where can we get the contact information on our reps again?   

[Special T]

http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,31831.0.html
Contact info

[Dave Workman]

Link to Eastman's story

http://www.eastmans.com/guy/2011/11/the-predator-death-spiral/



And the link to mine:

Are we seeing beginnings of backlash over wolves?

 Call it coincidental timing or something else, but two essays have appeared in the past few days that have captured the attention of Northwest hunters, who seem prepared to fight back against what they feel is a tidal wave of wolf expansion that has not been very well thought through.

http://www.examiner.com/gun-rights-in-seattle/are-we-seeing-beginnings-of-pendulum-reversal-over-wolves

[Kain]

Man this is exactly right on.  There is an equally scary trend happening that they are lowering predator population estimates.  You can read the WFW letter to the WDFW where we question the population estimates for cougars. 

http://www.hunt.info/Cougar_Letter_06-29-11.pdf

In 2002 the est. cougar population was 2400-4000 cats.  In 2003 that est. was lowered to 1900-2100 cats.  When I got a response from Dr. Martorello he explained that it was not really a decline in cougar populations but a "better" way of estimating their numbers.  What is scary is what happens when these numbers are used to estimate the numbers of ungulates that are killed by cougars.  If you use the WDFW's estimate that a cougar will make a deer sized kill every ten days there was 87,600-146,000 ungulates taken by cougars in 2002 but in 2003 their new estimates would show that there were only 69,350-76,650 ungulates killed.   If the deer and elk managers are using these numbers they will see 18,250-69,350 new animals magically appear out of thin air.     When in reallity there was no actual decrease in the number of cougars or predation on ungulates.

[Kain]

There are also studies that show that cougars make a kill every 7 days.  Even further throwing these estimates into the danger zone of the "predator spiral" mentioned above.

[Humptulips]

Dave,
Any chance we will see some of newspapers in the state pick up these articles so the public gets something besides predator love?

[wraithen]

With the cougar populations in California, there's more competition from what I've heard. I read somewhere that if they killed once a week it was a very very slow week due to other animals chasing them off their kills.

[Dave Workman]

Dave,
Any chance we will see some of newspapers in the state pick up these articles so the public gets something besides predator love?

Not a snowball's chance in Hell.

[Axle]

The underlying cause of this phenomina is when a wildlife agency attempts to hide or “pad” their big game population estimates when over predation begins to take hold.

I've been saying this for years now. We have not been getting the real harvest numbers. Cougars have devistated the herds for the past 25 years and most hunters are unaware of it. They are simply seeing less animals and don't know why because they spend little time in the woods the rest of the year.
If the harvest numbers weren't 'exagerated', many hunters would not buy a tag.
Our game herds have been poorly managed for too long and we don't need wolves.

[Skyvalhunter]

Our game herds have been poorly managed for too long and we don't need wolves.
2nd that!!!

[bearpaw]

If you don't let them know how you feel they'll never know. One voice seems like nothing but added with your breathren it matters. That's why we must all speak up.
If they vote against your opinion then help to vote them out.

Very well stated, this is our only chance, BE VOCAL.... 

[GrainfedMuley]

Just what can WE do?   

S S S     

[KillBilly]

Just what can WE do?   

S S S     

Join WFW and have a larger Unified Voice

[GrainfedMuley]

Join WFW  [/quote]







??  What is WFW? I know it's not what Google told me, the urban dictionary say's it stands for Waah F*@#king Waah..........

[Kain]

http://www.washingtonforwildlife.org/

[GrainfedMuley]

Thanx Kain

[pianoman9701]

I sent this to my two state congressmen and state senator today:

Dear Congressman Harris,
 
I write to you as a registered Republican voter, but more importantly to me, as an American who exercises his 2nd Amendment rights and who carries on the tradition of hunting and conservation. I spend many months of the year hunting, pay large amounts of money for licenses and sporting goods (of which 11% get paid into Pittman Robertson Fund), and volunteer many hours of my time each year to conservation projects for habitat enhancement.
 
Our Department of Fish and Wildlife has embarked on a dangerous path, one that is predictable because of the experiences of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, to not only reinstate the gray wolf here in WA, but to do so in numbers that exceed the recommendations of the US Fish & Wildlife Service, and are completely out of whack with our population density and wilderness land area. My hunting heritage and that of all WA hunters is in serious jeopardy.
 
The DFW has proposed, in opposition to recommendations made by hunters, land owners, and cattlemen, a recovery so drastic that many believe that it will seriously reverse the conservation efforts made by hunters since the beginning of the last century to restore our wildlife to healthy, manageable populations. Many of us see this as a vehicle by the anti-hunting minority to end hunting permanently. It may just work.
 
The plan calls for 15 breeding pairs of wolves and then a 3-year waiting period before any control efforts are embarked upon, meaning that the population of wolves could well exceed 1,000 animals before anything can be done to curtail their growth. The experiences of ID, WY, and MT have shown us that this path is reckless and will lead to decreased hunting opportunities and drastically reduced ungulate numbers. All three states have experienced the loss of non-resident tag sales, as well as resident tags, and in some cases, decreases in herd sizes of up to 90% in the 16 years since the program was commenced. In addition, with half the land mass of MT, twelve times the population, and 15 times the population density of MT, WDFW plans to allow 50% more breeding pairs than MT's plan has. Add that to the three year waiting period before culling can commence and we will have an environmental disaster the likes of which we haven't seen since contract killers decimated our buffalo, elk, and deer prior to the early 1900s. Please review their proposed plan here. http://wdfw.wa.gov/publications/00001/wdfw00001.pdf
 
Congressman Harris, I implore you to take a look at this proposal, which will go into effect in early December, and do what you can to convince the WDFW that this is the path of self-destruction for them, as well as our state's hunters. When the dust settles, their revenue will greatly decrease (this is not a good time for any state department to decrease their revenues), due to lost tag sales, and my hunting opportunities will greatly diminish after working so hard to keep them.
 
Thank you for your time and consideration of my request. I look forward to answering any questions you have and to working with you to keep our hunting heritage safe.
 
Most Sincerely,
 
John W
 
Master Hunter for WA
Washington for Wildlife - Legislative Chair
Member NRA, Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation, US Sportsman's Alliance

[KillBilly]

Just what can WE do?   

S S S     

Join WFW and have a larger Unified Voice

My apologies for using the Acronym and not including a Link.  thanks Kain.

[Fireant11]

John W - Great letter!   

The WDFW is all about managing dollars instead of wildlife!  I think if more letters like John's are sent to our Reps and Senators (both in Olympia and DC), accompanied by the Eastmans' letter that Wyoming08 started this thread with, it would have more impact.  Once they see how this spiral effects their revenue, their eyes will open and they'll start to listen.

I think it's insane that we (Washington) have half the elk population that Idaho and Montana have, yet the wolf management plan calls for the same number of breeding pairs!  If it goes through, our big game population will be completely decimated!  We've got to level-set the direction of those in charge.

[wence5]

A very enlightening and disturbing read. I pray it isn't too late for Washington, but I fear enough of the environmental mental cases have taken over positions of power. I tried watching the "Crying wolf movie", but it has been pulled, however there were some clips that were just sickening and heartbreaking. This cancer is destroying the efforts put forth by real conservationist from the last 100 years in a blink of an eye! Ladies and Gentlemen, get ready for one hell of a fight, because it's here!

Washington's fate will be reveled on Dec. 3rd

[mtman]

WE need to stop asking permission to hunt wolves and just do it. I have a hard enough time filling my belly as it is. I dont need more compatition.

[pianoman9701]

WE need to stop asking permission to hunt wolves and just do it. I have a hard enough time filling my belly as it is. I dont need more compatition.

I saw one in the 520 unit last week. Too close to home.

[jackmaster]

if someone could post up an email address or a mailing address i will be more than happy to send a letter a day and a couple emails a day, and i am sure others will as well, the only way we can help ourselves here is to find away to get hound hunting and trapping back and just do what you know to be right when we see wolves

[Bob33]

I don't have the answer, but this needs to be considered: if wolves are S S S 'd the breeding pair limits will not be reached as quickly if ever, and "hunters" will be blamed.  Does that help or hurt the future of hunting?

Is this headline possible: "Hunters prevent wolves from reaching breeding pair goals; additional safeguards necessary"?

[wraithen]

Do you think that won't happen even if S S S doesn't happen?

[Special T]

If an open season in AK with long liberal dates, or the same in ID could not control numbers then SSS won't affect real numbers. What it will do is provide a scapegoat for the politicans to use because they have not worked to solve the problem.

[pianoman9701]

Jaclmaster, here's the



Jackmaster, here's the email address for the commissioners:
commission@dfw.wa.gov

Here's the link to find your state representatives:
http://apps.leg.wa.gov/DistrictFinder/Default.aspx

Just type in your address and go. Also, join Washington for Wildlife for free. The join link will be up tomorrow at http://washingtonforwildlife.org/

[longstevo]

Just wrote my three reps.  We'll see if we get any kind of response.  That is, if two of them can tear themselves away with making same sex marriages legal to read my email to them. 

[BOWHUNTER45]

we need to keep the pressure on them ... I want a new pack of hounds.....hopefully some day soon !!!!

[bugs n bones]

I spoke with a local game warden the other days about the wolves and the excess of mountain lions that we have now because of the now hounds hunting unless you own one... I said ya know if we the people of washington get together and say we are not going to buy a license until this predator problem is delt with correctly you being wdfw will do something about it!! He said well you guys cant do that, the money from your licenses keep us going.... I said oh yes we could.... Wake up  WDFW

[villageidiot]

Hatchet,   You don't understand it completely.   You see that is the plan.  Stop hunting of everything and then WDFW will go to the legislature and ask to be funded by them since they no longer can support themselves by selling hunting licenses since there is nothing to hunt.  The animals worshipers outnumber the hunters so the legislature will fund the WDFW from that point on.  We will be sitting around with our hand in our ear wondering where we were when it was time to act.  Now is the time!

[pianoman9701]

Hatchet,   You don't understand it completely.   You see that is the plan.  Stop hunting of everything and then WDFW will go to the legislature and ask to be funded by them since they no longer can support themselves by selling hunting licenses since there is nothing to hunt.  The animals worshipers outnumber the hunters so the legislature will fund the WDFW from that point on.  We will be sitting around with our hand in our ear wondering where we were when it was time to act.  Now is the time!

I respectfully disagree, Village. The animals worshipers don't even come close to the numbers of hunters. They only have larger amounts of money with which to hire attorneys, wine a dine liberal elected and appointed officials, and run deceptive advertising. Animal rights activists are less than 1% of the population. In WA, we are 7%.

As far as the DFW losing their way and listening to these idiots more than they listen to us is concerned, we have to help them find their way again. We need to oppose animal rights appointees to the wildlife commission, we need to contact our legislature about every hunting and conservation-related bill that comes forth, and we have to be educated about our sport and its history so that when someone needs accurate information to make decisions about whether or not to support us, we can give it to them.

This is the one thing the average animal rights crazy hasn't got - any accurate info. They rely only on emotion and pulling at people's heart strings. When faced with statistical information and facts, they lose their freaking minds and it becomes very obvious to any who are paying attention that they have gone way off the deep end.

[villageidiot]

By golley Pianofeller, you got a little wisdom in your statement.  I hope your right about the 1%.  I do know the rule of this Satan controlled earth is the golden rule "whoever has the gold has the rule". 

[jackmaster]

thank you pianno i sent all 3 an email

[Wildsau]

Pianoman has it right.

I have to admit, up front, that I, although born and raised in WA, have not been able to hunt here as much as I would have liked, being stationed in Germany most of my Army career.  My hunting here, as a teenager, was, mostly, road, and I, still, dispise it.  So I can not claim, nor would I ever, that I am the, formost, expert on hunting in WA.  I din mos of my hunting in Germany.

In Germany, you have to be knowledgeable, in every way, of the game you are hunting, the vegetation, deseases, etc., in order to be allowed to purchase a lincese.    Although some are "Trophy Hunters", the, primary, purpose in hunting is to cul the animals to ensure a one-to-one ration (male and female) and that the oldest and those with defomed horns/antlers are removed form the gene pool.  This ensures that there will be animals to hunt for generations to come.  In order to ensure the counts of males taken, all hunters are required to submit their trophies for grading, and the best points and awards are awarded to those with the most deformations.  This method has been in existance longer than most men can remember and there is an abundance of animals to hunt every year.

This only happens with knowledge of the animals; which, unfortunately, far too many of the hunters, in WA, do not have.  FAr too many only know that they purchase their license and tags, go to where the 'Work of Mouth Report" tells them the animals are and tramp the woods until the most stupid animal steps out so they can shoot it.  Unlike most of the WA hunters, there is, absolutely, no regard as to whether or not that perfect bull would have produced a lot more perfect animals; only that they shot a record size animal.

ALL of the hunters, hunting in WA, should be required to pass an exam that would require them to know what they are hunting and how to best conserve the strongest for, future off-spring, before they are allowed to purchase a license.  In that way, we can ensure that our knowledge is that, that the animal rights activists would not be able to stand up to and WA hunters and our voices would be, more clearly, heard by those we help to put in office.  If we could show that our knowledge of the animals far exceeded that of the WDFW, we would not be labled as a bunch of 'gun toten crazies' but, rather, a well informed, organized group of men and women who take the time to know and understand what they are fighting to keep.  That we understand that the "Sport" of hunting is taken extremely serious.

If we don't push for something like this, the animal rights activists will continue to win and hunting, in WA, will only be read about in our future generations' history books.

My  worth.

[pianoman9701]

Wildsau, although I embrace your enthusiasm, I can't agree completely on a separately mandated education course on hunting education, history, and statistics. Although, I would have no problem with this information being added to the current curriculum for the required Hunter's Safety/Education course.

My feeling is that we need to want to save our sport. Those of us who complain should do something to change the current tide of decisions which forecast the eventual end of hunting. Being a good ole boy and just saying that the "antis will never change so I'll just go kill me a couple wolves" isn't good enough. If we want our sport to continue, we must be educated and articulate, presenting facts in a non-aggressive, non-confrontational manner. As I said, the majority of our state still supports hunting and the North American model. If we want to build or even maintain that, we need to learn how to talk to that 80%.

Incidentally, Bob33 did some math. The figure that I quoted (from the Master Hunter materials I studied) of 7% of our population being hunters is incorrect. In WA, 3.8% of us are hunters. That's still 4 times the number of anti-hunters and we still pay the largest chunk of money into the wildlife budget in the state, by a long shot.

[Wildsau]

 

[TwoSixFourWins]

Send them all down south to eat their piggy problem.

[longstevo]

The email I first sent out I made kind of a 'combo' email with that SOPA topic written into it.  The screener or admin asssistant jumped on that, and all three reps responded to that, and completely ignored the wolf subject, so I sent out fresh emails tonight. 

[BOWHUNTER45]

I spoke with a local game warden the other days about the wolves and the excess of mountain lions that we have now because of the now hounds hunting unless you own one... I said ya know if we the people of washington get together and say we are not going to buy a license until this predator problem is delt with correctly you being wdfw will do something about it!! He said well you guys cant do that, the money from your licenses keep us going.... I said oh yes we could.... Wake up  WDFW
[/quote I preach this license issue eveyday.....As much as I love to hunt and I breath it everyday just like most of us on here but I WOULD GIVE IT UP ONE YEAR just to let them know we have had it with the way Washington keeps trying to manage predators .....Like someone said earlier if these predators eat all the game how is the dept plan on making money ? Are the wolve lovers and animal activists plan on flipping the bill ....Seriously something dramatic needs to happen so these idiots wake up