I have 12 points for elk in AZ and I think Bigshooter is dead on. I'm holding out for an early rifle tag, but I think it's going to be several more years before that happens. My advice....when you have low numbers of points there, try to pick hunts with nonresident application percentages under 10% (compared to numbers of residents), which means that generally you have the same odds as a resident. Most of the best hunts will be way over 10% and all tags will be gone in the 20% "bonus" draw (to maximum point holders only). However, there are some very good, big bull hunts there that do not quite reach the 10% number or are close to it....just do your homework and apply!!! My opinion is that even the 8 year wait Bigshooter mentions above for a late season tag is well worth it. The experience can be awesome...lots of elk and lots of bulls.