Spring bear draw results

[Alaska316]

This will 4 points for me, come on Lick creek.

[75johndeere]

Thanks. I think I would quit putting in for points with 9 lol

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[krism83]

The good news from that chart is that it gives me a 10% chance to draw Kapowsin, and 13.5% to draw Copalis...

[stickbuck]

I figured I would do my best to add fuel to this thread to keep it going. My buddy showed me the calculation he uses to figure out his odds. I know it is a year behind since these are the only harvest numbers and hunter stats available, but here goes. Since the Monroe unit is the easiest to describe, I will show the math for that one in case there are a few people out there that don't know how to do it. The math is fairly simple but can take a few minutes to add up. First, you need to add up all the applicants by their points. For example, there were 2 applicants with five points. I square their five points and multiply it by the 2 applicants. As seen below, I did that for all of the point categories.

Hunters with 5 points: 5 points squared multiplied by 2 applicants gives me 50.
Hunters with 4 points: 4 points squared multiplied by 6 applicants gives me 96.
Hunters with 3 points: 3 points squared multiplied by 36 applicants gives me 324.
Hunters with 2 points: 2 points squared multiplied by 107 applicants gives me 428.
Hunters with 1 points: 1 points squared multiplied by 222 applicants gives me 222.

I then add up all those numbers on the far right which gives me a number of 1120. I then square my 2 points and divide the squared number of 4 into 1120 and then divide 25(permits for that unit) into that number and that gives me my odds of drawing that permit. Not pretty, but a 1 in 11.2 chance of getting drawn if the permit applicants are similar. I know those applicant numbers won't be the same, but they should be close enough. I hope that was easy to understand.

[stickbuck]

For my calculation listed below, I used the point numbers from the 2010 harvest reports. When I use the 2011 point distribution by hunt choice, I come up with a 1 in 14 shot. Wow, that is depressing!!! Not to deviate from the topic, but at least it is better than my 1 in 397 shot of drawing a moose tag. 

[Ridgerunner]

calculating odds will just give a guy a general idea of what approximate odds are, I don't think you can really predict with 100% certainty, however it is nice to know relative odds.

[Alaska316]

I don't care about odds, I just want to find out. I am either Lingcod fishing or bear hunting .

[Ripper]

I scheduled my Ling cod trip after spring bear is over. Just trying to have a positive attitude.

[saylean]

As Han Solo once said, "Never tell me the odds!".

[bear hunter]

I don't care about odds, I just want to find out. I am either Lingcod fishing or bear hunting .

:bash:SAME HERE I NEED KNOW

[Crunchy]

Neah Bay is calling my name.  Im either bear hunting or catchin my limit of ling cod and sea bass

[Alaska316]

How many of you fish Neah Bay? I am always taking my boat out to fish solo. Oh wait, bear thread. 

[bowman]

Hey D Rock can I buy into your business "co-owner C-post guide service"? I am very familiar with that area and I even have a few monster blacktails tied up to go with my bears.

[johnnyaustin44]

Hey D Rock can I buy into your business "co-owner C-post guide service"? I am very familiar with that area and I even have a few monster blacktails tied up to go with my bears.

you too huh. man I thought I had that place to myself. Live right by it and know the ins and outs. of all that prime untouched hunting ground

[D-Rock425]

Bowman you can certainly join the c-post prostaff.