Post by: skywalker253 on December 05, 2012, 07:15:38 PM
What are the top 5 GMUs deer?
What are the top 5 special permit hunts for modern firearm and muzzy?
Post by: deerhunter_98520 on December 06, 2012, 05:48:25 AM
Post by: Ridgerunner on December 06, 2012, 06:04:12 AM
Post by: huntnphool on December 06, 2012, 01:55:14 PM
Post by: BiggLuke on December 07, 2012, 08:45:00 AM
I can still remember the biggest buck I've ever seen was in that unit.
Plus There are plenty of actual harvests of Monsters from there.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 08:48:21 AM
Don't know That I know of 5... but I would absolutely say Desert should be on the list.No kidding, look at the bucks that came out of there this year. :yike:
I can still remember the biggest buck I've ever seen was in that unit.
Plus There are plenty of actual harvests of Monsters from there.
Post by: boneaddict on December 07, 2012, 08:51:08 AM
Post by: Holg3107 on December 07, 2012, 09:11:59 AM
Quote
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
That would sure change things! I grew up hunting Colorado and thats how its done there, no one seemed to mind and the herd was able to be managed much better than here.
Post by: BiggLuke on December 07, 2012, 09:13:34 AM
You know as well as anybody else that they make a ton of money off of us for letting us apply for $15 a try but only getting one selection. lol...
I'm suprised they don't let us have an unlimited number of applications.
I'm sure somebody would pay a few thousand bucks to be put into every draw. right?
Post by: Relish the Journey on December 07, 2012, 09:15:53 AM
Quote from: boneaddict link=topic :yeah:=111965.msg1472434#msg1472434 date=1354899068
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Totally agree. With the amount of hunters in this state its time. Especially on the west side where pugetpopulis is expanding.
Post by: Ridgerunner on December 07, 2012, 09:17:13 AM
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 09:17:46 AM
I'd like to see it go west or east for deer too.Quote from: boneaddict link=topic :yeah:=111965.msg1472434#msg1472434 date=1354899068I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Totally agree. With the amount of hunters in this state its time. Especially on the west side where pugetpopulis is expanding.
Post by: Caseyd on December 07, 2012, 09:21:06 AM
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Are you saying for general?
What if your property is divided into two units?
Not saying I dont like the idea, just seems like it would be difficult
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 09:22:44 AM
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 09:26:23 AM
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Absolutely agree. The multiple choice baloney is the worst thing that ever happened.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 09:29:23 AM
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Absolutely agree. The multiple choice baloney is the worst thing that ever happened.
No, the absolute worst thing to ever happen is the multiple categories for each species. (In my opinion)
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 09:34:30 AM
Some would argue that going from WDF&G to WDFW was the worst thing that ever happened. :twocents:I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Absolutely agree. The multiple choice baloney is the worst thing that ever happened.
No, the absolute worst thing to ever happen is the multiple categories for each species. (In my opinion)
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 09:39:01 AM
Going from two choices to one choice really won't change anything. I wouldn't necessarily be against it, but the only advantage I see is it may be easier to calculate odds of drawing. But it won't make permits easier to draw. You'd still have the same number of applicants and the same number of permits.
Not so. I always put in for the late Blue Mtn. whitetail hunt. Used to be approximately 600 putting in for 100 permits back in the early 90's. One would usually draw every 3-4 years. Then along came 4 choices and odds went to 1500-1600 up to 2000 for the same 100 permits. Now add in the doe hunters keeping their doe points but being able to put in for quality buck and it goes up over 2200. Now if you're lucky maybe every 5-7 years you might get drawn.
On top of that WDFW is inept enough in the management department to have 100 doe hunters in the field during that rut season, many of which I have run across that are even in the wrong unit. If you want to harvest doe's and reduce numbers do it during the general. Don't screw up a quality rut hunt with hunters that can harvest theirs earlier...period!
Most of those that end up putting in for 2nd through 4th choices don't have a clue as to the area or access. Many of those tags go wasted. Going down to 2 choices helps, but still makes odds higher than they should be.
Post by: Curly on December 07, 2012, 09:40:35 AM
Some would argue that going from WDF&G to WDFW was the worst thing that ever happened. :twocents:I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Absolutely agree. The multiple choice baloney is the worst thing that ever happened.
No, the absolute worst thing to ever happen is the multiple categories for each species. (In my opinion)
And some would argue that the worst thing was merging Fisheries and Game into one dept of WDF&G.......
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 09:41:25 AM
Some would argue that going from WDF&G to WDFW was the worst thing that ever happened. :twocents:I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
Absolutely agree. The multiple choice baloney is the worst thing that ever happened.
No, the absolute worst thing to ever happen is the multiple categories for each species. (In my opinion)
That was definitely a huge mistake.
Post by: Curly on December 07, 2012, 09:42:07 AM
Going from two choices to one choice really won't change anything. I wouldn't necessarily be against it, but the only advantage I see is it may be easier to calculate odds of drawing. But it won't make permits easier to draw. You'd still have the same number of applicants and the same number of permits.
Not so. I always put in for the late Blue Mtn. whitetail hunt. Used to be approximately 600 putting in for 100 permits back in the early 90's. One would usually draw every 3-4 years. Then along came 4 choices and odds went to 1500-1600 up to 2000 for the same 100 permits. Now add in the doe hunters keeping their doe points but being able to put in for quality buck and it goes up over 2200. Now if you're lucky maybe every 5-7 years you might get drawn.
On top of that WDFW is inept enough in the management department to have 100 doe hunters in the field during that rut season, many of which I have run across that are even in the wrong unit. If you want to harvest doe's and reduce numbers do it during the general. Don't screw up a quality rut hunt with hunters that can harvest theirs earlier...period!
Most of those that end up putting in for 2nd through 4th choices don't have a clue as to the area or access. Many of those tags go wasted. Going down to 2 choices helps, but still makes odds higher than they should be.
It's not really the amount of choices that caused the problem you point out there; it is the multiple categories.
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 09:43:41 AM
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 09:47:54 AM
Going from two choices to one choice really won't change anything. I wouldn't necessarily be against it, but the only advantage I see is it may be easier to calculate odds of drawing. But it won't make permits easier to draw. You'd still have the same number of applicants and the same number of permits.
Not so. I always put in for the late Blue Mtn. whitetail hunt. Used to be approximately 600 putting in for 100 permits back in the early 90's. One would usually draw every 3-4 years. Then along came 4 choices and odds went to 1500-1600 up to 2000 for the same 100 permits. Now add in the doe hunters keeping their doe points but being able to put in for quality buck and it goes up over 2200. Now if you're lucky maybe every 5-7 years you might get drawn.
On top of that WDFW is inept enough in the management department to have 100 doe hunters in the field during that rut season, many of which I have run across that are even in the wrong unit. If you want to harvest doe's and reduce numbers do it during the general. Don't screw up a quality rut hunt with hunters that can harvest theirs earlier...period!
Most of those that end up putting in for 2nd through 4th choices don't have a clue as to the area or access. Many of those tags go wasted. Going down to 2 choices helps, but still makes odds higher than they should be.
It's not really the amount of choices that caused the problem you point out there; it is the multiple categories.
Maybe I'm missing something here but if you allow only one choice and in the unit I referred to historically 600 put in for 100 permits, then you allow 4 choices statewide and now you have 2200 putting in for the same 100 permits, its the specific unit applications that caused the problem, not the categories. It was and is a 3 pt. of better or anterless permit.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 09:49:53 AM
I hear that. How about finally drawing that coveted "Quality" hunt tag after waiting 13-14+ years, only to find 25 "Buck" whitetail hunters inadvertantly walking around pushing the mule deer all over hell. :bash:
On top of that WDFW is inept enough in the management department to have 100 doe hunters in the field during that rut season, many of which I have run across that are even in the wrong unit. If you want to harvest doe's and reduce numbers do it during the general. Don't screw up a quality rut hunt with hunters that can harvest theirs earlier...period!
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 09:50:09 AM
I don't apply for just one particular hunt every year. I look at the odds and apply for hunts that I have the best chance of drawing. (Because just about any special permit hunt is going to be better than a general season hunt)
I could see where the odds for certain permits may be slightly better if applicants were only allowed one choice. But odds for other permits would be worse.
The overall odds of drawing a permit would stay the same.
Post by: Curly on December 07, 2012, 10:08:07 AM
Maybe I'm missing something here but if you allow only one choice and in the unit I referred to historically 600 put in for 100 permits, then you allow 4 choices statewide and now you have 2200 putting in for the same 100 permits, its the specific unit applications that caused the problem, not the categories. It was and is a 3 pt. of better or anterless permit.
I stand corrected.
I just hate the category b.s. so much I guess I saw another chance to point it out and didn't think it through.
I just like the old way before categories started. All they had to do was reduce the choices of units you could apply for and increase the price of the application fee by maybe double and they would have accomplished their goal of making more money and not screw up the pretty decent draw system that they already had. :twocents:
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 10:12:27 AM
Well maybe I should say that going to only one choice on app's wouldn't change anything for ME.
I don't apply for just one particular hunt every year. I look at the odds and apply for hunts that I have the best chance of drawing. (Because just about any special permit hunt is going to be better than a general season hunt)
I could see where the odds for certain permits may be slightly better if applicants were only allowed one choice. But odds for other permits would be worse.
The overall odds of drawing a permit would stay the same.
What math are you using? If you have 10,000 hunters putting in one choice and one choice only across the state for say 2500 tags you have 1 hunter in 4 theoretically drawing a permit. That varies somewhat depending on unit. If you have those same 10,000 hunters putting in four choices each for the same 2500 tags you essentially have 40,000 hunters putting in for those 2500 tags.
The overall odds of drawing a permit definitely go up as I explained earlier in referring to my years of putting in for the same permit.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 10:15:28 AM
save your breath brother, talking odds with Bobcat is a lesson in futility. :chuckle::chuckle:Well maybe I should say that going to only one choice on app's wouldn't change anything for ME.
I don't apply for just one particular hunt every year. I look at the odds and apply for hunts that I have the best chance of drawing. (Because just about any special permit hunt is going to be better than a general season hunt)
I could see where the odds for certain permits may be slightly better if applicantswere only allowed one choice. But odds for other permits would be worse.
The overall odds of drawing a permit would stay the same.
What math are you using? If you have 10,000 hunters putting in one choice and one choice only across the state for say 2500 tags you have 1 hunter in 4 theoretically drawing a permit. That varies somewhat depending on unit. If you have those same 10,000 hunters putting in four choices each for the same 2500 tags you essentially have 40,000 hunters putting in for those 2500 tags.
The overall odds of drawing a permit definitely go up as I explained earlier in referring to my years of putting in for the same permit.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 10:19:59 AM
It doesn't make any difference how the drawing is done, the odds are 1 in 4.
Post by: jrebel on December 07, 2012, 10:46:53 AM
Mind you....I use to feel very different about this until this year. There are many on this site that don't add anything and always want a handout. There are others that act all high and mighty until their true colors shine. I have learned my lesson the hard way and now changed my outlook.
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 10:56:48 AM
In the example of 10,000 permits and 2500 applicants-
It doesn't make any difference how the drawing is done, the odds are 1 in 4.
First of all....10,000 applicants for 2500 permits....not 10,000 permits. Fuzzy math? :chuckle:
Generally you could say odds are one in four, but that is misleading. Some units could have fewer applicants than tags allowed and vice versa, some units could have more applicants than tags allowed. Therefore odds can be all over the place for individual unit choices.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:09:55 AM
I agree, I was just talking the overall odds, not every permit will have the same odds (obviously).
The point is, overall odds of drawing a permit would be 1 in 4, no matter how many choices each applicant was allowed.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 11:12:47 AM
I like my numbers better! :). Odds are 4 in 1. Four permits per hunter. :tup:I would assume those odds are going to decrease exponentially in the Desert this year. :chuckle:
I agree, I was just talking the overall odds, not every permit will have the same odds (obviously).
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:15:52 AM
I like my numbers better! :). Odds are 4 in 1. Four permits per hunter. :tup:I would assume those odds are going to decrease exponentially in the Desert this year. :chuckle:
I agree, I was just talking the overall odds, not every permit will have the same odds (obviously).
Probably but I don't care.
I would never apply for a hunt with such low odds of drawing.
Post by: BOWHUNTER45 on December 07, 2012, 11:26:35 AM
you mean like that tag where I live :chuckle: :chuckle: where do I live ? where there are more wardens than hunters :yike:I like my numbers better! :). Odds are 4 in 1. Four permits per hunter. :tup:I would assume those odds are going to decrease exponentially in the Desert this year. :chuckle:
I agree, I was just talking the overall odds, not every permit will have the same odds (obviously).
Probably but I don't care.
I would never apply for a hunt with such low odds of drawing.
Post by: Ridgerunner on December 07, 2012, 11:41:16 AM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on December 07, 2012, 11:44:25 AM
Post by: boneaddict on December 07, 2012, 11:45:39 AM
go one step further......deer and elk or OIL, not both.
Post by: BowForElk on December 07, 2012, 11:49:28 AM
[/quote]Some would argue that going from WDF&G to WDFW was the worst thing that ever happened. :twocents:
[/quote]
What is the difference to the hunter between to two depts? I was born in '90 So As long as Ive lived its been WDFW. Just curious what changed?
Post by: sirmissalot on December 07, 2012, 11:50:07 AM
And are you trying to tell me that you have NEVER in all your years hunting; not applied for an area, which you already scouted, obtained land owner permission, etc.?
Do you apply out of state? Assuming you do; you have already gone over to Example- New Mexico and scounted out an area, obtained land owner permission, etc.
C'MON!! I guarentee just about EVERYONE on this site has applied for a hunt choice, which they no little to nothing about. I have a mild understanding of the Wenaha. But I have never hiked up and down hills, sat on landings etc. prior to appling for a quality elk tag. I know it is a trophy area. Most the read the game laws are smart enough to figure out the good hunts from the bad hunts, by looking at the harvest report and the applicant numbers. Once I get drawn; THEN I will spend the time and money to figure out where to go etc. The game laws tell people if it is a private land hunt, etc. All you have to do is read the definitions and pay attention to the asterisks. Those hunts I would never apply for, unless I already had permission to hunt. Common sense...
I agree. I don't have a problem with people applying for an area they don't know well, people get mad on here all the time when people draw a tag in an area they don't know or haven't hunted. In my experience a late season muley hunt will be completely different than general season, so knowledge of the area as far as hunting goes won't do a whole lot since the deer in many of those hunts are migratory. I drew a margaret bull tag this year, I have never elk hunted there... its draw only. Its the people who draw tags, then never bother using them because they don't have time or didn't realize how difficult the hunt is... etc. who bother me. Even then... its your hunt, if you choose to not give it a fair shot then so be it. Not what I would do, but to each their own.
The new drawings with mulitple applications per species frustrates me. For excample, I used to apply for the ewe bighorn tag because I wanted one with my bow, and thought it would go well as a lifesize with a ram someday, and at my age I will get drawn for a ram tag eventually so why not get the ewe tag? Well it went from like 246 applicants to thousands, don't remember the number but my odds of drawing were great, and are now very slim. Its like that in many categories.
Post by: jackmaster on December 07, 2012, 12:27:27 PM
I still think the state should make us choose one, one onlyBONE for wdfw president :yeah: :yeah:
Post by: jrebel on December 07, 2012, 03:16:07 PM
And are you trying to tell me that you have NEVER in all your years hunting; not applied for an area, which you already scouted, obtained land owner permission, etc.?
Do you apply out of state? Assuming you do; you have already gone over to Example- New Mexico and scounted out an area, obtained land owner permission, etc.
C'MON!! I guarentee just about EVERYONE on this site has applied for a hunt choice, which they no little to nothing about. I have a mild understanding of the Wenaha. But I have never hiked up and down hills, sat on landings etc. prior to appling for a quality elk tag. I know it is a trophy area. Most the read the game laws are smart enough to figure out the good hunts from the bad hunts, by looking at the harvest report and the applicant numbers. Once I get drawn; THEN I will spend the time and money to figure out where to go etc. The game laws tell people if it is a private land hunt, etc. All you have to do is read the definitions and pay attention to the asterisks. Those hunts I would never apply for, unless I already had permission to hunt. Common sense...
Absolutely that is what I am saying. I have never put in for a tag that I have not scouted or was willing to scout. I have gleaned information from this site and it is a good resource for that.......it has (in my opinion) morphed peoples perception of what and where a trophy unit is.
I have seen people draw tags and they don't even know where the GMU is....they just hope to get information from others. This (again in my opinion) is not what this site should be about. Do your homework, do some scouting, go camping in the area...then ask for assitance. Don't just ask for assitance when you have done nothing to make your self successful in the first place, other than get lucky and draw a "quality tag."
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 03:19:50 PM
Post by: jrebel on December 07, 2012, 03:21:17 PM
And are you trying to tell me that you have NEVER in all your years hunting; not applied for an area, which you already scouted, obtained land owner permission, etc.?
Do you apply out of state? Assuming you do; you have already gone over to Example- New Mexico and scounted out an area, obtained land owner permission, etc.
C'MON!! I guarentee just about EVERYONE on this site has applied for a hunt choice, which they no little to nothing about. I have a mild understanding of the Wenaha. But I have never hiked up and down hills, sat on landings etc. prior to appling for a quality elk tag. I know it is a trophy area. Most the read the game laws are smart enough to figure out the good hunts from the bad hunts, by looking at the harvest report and the applicant numbers. Once I get drawn; THEN I will spend the time and money to figure out where to go etc. The game laws tell people if it is a private land hunt, etc. All you have to do is read the definitions and pay attention to the asterisks. Those hunts I would never apply for, unless I already had permission to hunt. Common sense...
I agree. I don't have a problem with people applying for an area they don't know well, people get mad on here all the time when people draw a tag in an area they don't know or haven't hunted. In my experience a late season muley hunt will be completely different than general season, so knowledge of the area as far as hunting goes won't do a whole lot since the deer in many of those hunts are migratory. I drew a margaret bull tag this year, I have never elk hunted there... its draw only. Its the people who draw tags, then never bother using them because they don't have time or didn't realize how difficult the hunt is... etc. who bother me. Even then... its your hunt, if you choose to not give it a fair shot then so be it. Not what I would do, but to each their own.
The new drawings with mulitple applications per species frustrates me. For excample, I used to apply for the ewe bighorn tag because I wanted one with my bow, and thought it would go well as a lifesize with a ram someday, and at my age I will get drawn for a ram tag eventually so why not get the ewe tag? Well it went from like 246 applicants to thousands, don't remember the number but my odds of drawing were great, and are now very slim. Its like that in many categories.
I agree...it is your tag and you can do what you want with it.
I dissagree....because you are hunting migratory deer you don't need prior knowledge. If you don't know where they migrate, or how to access wintering ground, then why are you putting in for the tag.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 03:24:23 PM
For deer I pick one and only one. Have no interest in another unit. If for some reason I changed my mind to say the Desert, it would still only one choice. I do the same for elk.
If that is your strategy, well, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. To maximize my odds I always apply for the maximum number of choices allowed, and I put them in order from hardest to easiest.
Post by: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 04:16:19 PM
For deer I pick one and only one. Have no interest in another unit. If for some reason I changed my mind to say the Desert, it would still only one choice. I do the same for elk.
If that is your strategy, well, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. To maximize my odds I always apply for the maximum number of choices allowed, and I put them in order from hardest to easiest.
Not a strategy, it's what I prefer to do. Chasing big whitetails in the rut is at the top of my list, always has been. To tell you how much I enjoy them, well...I passed on an honest 190 plus buck back in 93' within the first 4 hours of my first day hunting in the Blues. Watched him for over an hour tending a doe at 100 yards. Passed because I planned on hunting for a least a week. Dumb...perhaps. My son who was with me and didn't have a permit named that deer "The *censored* Buck", because I was a *censored* to not shoot him.
I've had opportunities at several 150-180 class bucks where I either passed or they screwed with my mind enough that I ended up telling myself..."Why did I do that....I know better". That's whitetail hunting. :chuckle:
I like the Blues because I've put in the years to learn the area well and have made friends over the years with some of the locals. However I spend a lot of time on property pretty much accessible to anyone.
Why would I want to burn a tag for something less desirable in my mind. It's not about drawing whatever, it's all about quality and the experience I choose to have.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 09:01:30 PM
A lot of the hunt choices are migratory, which you you really can't scout out until just prior to the hunts.You can be scouting them right now. :twocents:
Post by: Kola16 on December 07, 2012, 09:03:50 PM
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
:tdown:
Post by: fish vacuum on December 07, 2012, 09:47:17 PM
I'd like to see it go west or east for deer too.
:yeah:
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 09:57:06 PM
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 09:57:56 PM
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only:yeah:
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 10:24:50 PM
If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.
I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 10:28:40 PM
If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.
I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.
It wouldn't be 16 divided by four it would be 16 multiplied by 4 which is 64. 16 people have 4 choices each. Thats 64. not 4.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 10:31:16 PM
I think the two of you need to read each others posts more carefully, it might make it easier to understand each other. :twocents:If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.
I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.
It wouldn't be 16 divided by four it would be 16 multiplied by 4 which is 64. 16 people have 4 choices each. Thats 64. not 4.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 10:31:54 PM
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 10:47:03 PM
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 10:52:24 PM
You're making it too complicated. How many people are there and how many permits? That's all that matters. Four people will be drawn for hunts, out of 16 people. That's 1 in 4 odds. No matter how the drawing works, the odds are the same.The only way your math works is if there are the same amount of permits as there are applicants. If you increase the amount of applicants and keep the amount of permits available the same, inherently the odds will get worse. Therefore 4 choices per person is reducing the odds of you drawing a certain permit my 4.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 10:53:36 PM
So you say there are 64 applicants, and 4 permits. That's 1 in 16 odds.
Meaning out of every 16 people that applied, 1 will draw a permit.
Post by: WAcoueshunter on December 07, 2012, 10:55:10 PM
Obviously making it a smaller number to lessen the confusion doesn't work. Yes, your right if there are the exact same amount of people putting in for tags as there are choices available up to 16 then yes you are right. I should of caught that 4x4 =16 so my example doesn't work. But take my numbers and extrapolate the number of people putting in for the permits but leave the permit numbers the same. Which is how our current system is. so let's say 64 people only have one choice of 4 hunts and they are evenly distributed. That would be 16 16 16 and 16 which gives you a 6.25 percent chance of drawing. Now lets say the same 64 people get 4 choices. 64 64 64 and 64 = a 1.25 percent chance of drawing. Now that there isn't a tag per 4 choices it should be a little more clear....
Yeah, but you have four choices, so you'd be 1 of the 64 in each of those draws with combined total draw odds of 1:16.
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 11:00:30 PM
Again, I'm only looking at the number of applicants and the number of permits.Notice how you went from the previous example of a 1 in 4 chance to a 1 in 16 just by adding 28 new applicants. Now add 20,000 applicants. and change your 4 hunts to 30.
So you say there are 64 applicants, and 4 permits. That's 1 in 16 odds.
Meaning out of every 16 people that applied, 1 will draw a permit.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 11:01:14 PM
Again, I'm only looking at the number of applicants and the number of permits.Figuring out drawing odds of applicants per hunt is easy, that does not translate into actual drawing odds for individuals though, so you guys arguing over it is pointless. :chuckle:
So you say there are 64 applicants, and 4 permits. That's 1 in 16 odds.
Meaning out of every 16 people that applied, 1 will draw a permit.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:03:46 PM
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 11:05:11 PM
I think your right. We might be arguing two different points... :chuckle:Again, I'm only looking at the number of applicants and the number of permits.Figuring out drawing odds of applicants per hunt is easy, that does not translate into actual drawing odds for individuals though, so you guys arguing over it is pointless. :chuckle:
So you say there are 64 applicants, and 4 permits. That's 1 in 16 odds.
Meaning out of every 16 people that applied, 1 will draw a permit.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 11:07:26 PM
Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:09:43 PM
Post by: madmack76 on December 07, 2012, 11:10:33 PM
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:10:47 PM
Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
No thanks! I don't even consider points, it's nearly impossible to try to calculate the true odds of drawing a partucular hunt.
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 11:11:37 PM
:yeah: :sry:Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
No thanks! I don't even consider points, it's nearly impossible to try to calculate the true odds of drawing a partucular hunt.
Post by: WAcoueshunter on December 07, 2012, 11:13:12 PM
Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
No thanks! I don't even consider points, it's nearly impossible to try to calculate the true odds of drawing a partucular hunt.
Why's that? They give you the breakdown of the applicants by points now...?
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:18:01 PM
Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
No thanks! I don't even consider points, it's nearly impossible to try to calculate the true odds of drawing a partucular hunt.
Why's that? They give you the breakdown of the applicants by points now...?
It's not worth it to me. I just go by the number of applicants and divide that by the number of permits.
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:18:42 PM
What are the top 5 deer permits? :)
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 11:19:32 PM
And all I'm saying is that dividing the number of hunters by the permits does not give you the odds of getting one. Just because you are one of those 16 guys applying for one of the 4 permits does not give you a 1 in 4 odds chance of getting one, it gives you a 1 in 4 "people" chance. If everyone had the same amount of points then yes I see your point, but thats not realistic. ;)Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
No thanks! I don't even consider points, it's nearly impossible to try to calculate the true odds of drawing a partucular hunt.
Post by: huntnphool on December 07, 2012, 11:21:34 PM
Now should we get this thread back on topic?I thought that was answered earlier, Desert, Desert, Desert, Desert and Desert.
What are the top 5 deer permits? :)
Post by: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 11:22:23 PM
And all I'm saying is that dividing the number of hunters by the permits does not give you the odds of getting one. Just because you are one of those 16 guys applying for one of the 4 permits does not give you a 1 in 4 odds chance of getting one, it gives you a 1 in 4 "people" chance. If everyone had the same amount of points then yes I see your point, but thats not realistic. ;)Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
No thanks! I don't even consider points, it's nearly impossible to try to calculate the true odds of drawing a partucular hunt.
I understand that. It's not the odds for an individual person, but the entire pool of applications, is what I'm talking about.
Post by: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 11:22:49 PM
lets not forget that al 16 people are putting in for the number 1 permit too.And all I'm saying is that dividing the number of hunters by the permits does not give you the odds of getting one. Just because you are one of those 16 guys applying for one of the 4 permits does not give you a 1 in 4 odds chance of getting one, it gives you a 1 in 4 "people" chance. If everyone had the same amount of points then yes I see your point, but thats not realistic. ;)Well, I don't know if it's pointless, but it's sure something that would be better to "discuss" in person. :chuckle:Yes with 16 people applying for 4 permits the odds are 1 in 4 will draw...............however the real question is which 1 of the 4 will draw, you have to calculate the number of points each person has.........................now lets sit back and watch what you guys come up with. :chuckle:
No thanks! I don't even consider points, it's nearly impossible to try to calculate the true odds of drawing a partucular hunt.
Post by: grundy53 on December 08, 2012, 12:19:43 AM
I doubt anyone will bash you. Nice work. :tup:A lot of the hunt choices are migratory, which you you really can't scout out until just prior to the hunts.You can be scouting them right now. :twocents:
If you look at my post yesterday, I mentioned I was at Entiat scouting and spotted some nice bucks. Long story short. I am a Medical Sales rep. I make my own schedule and cover all of Wa, Or, ID, and Alaska. I spend about 4000 miles per month on the road. I spend most of my time in Eastern Wa and North Idaho. Last night I drove over to Chelan and got a hotel to work at the hospital today. Last night I drove around at 1am looking at big bucks in the orchards and up a few forest roads. I got nervous being up on th snow line, by myself, at 1am. I ended up turning around and came back this afternoon to look around. A little disappointed that I did not see 1 deer in the hills. But I did not spend more then a few hours, knowing I will be back soon. Any suggestions would be nice....
If anyone wants to bash me for asking for suggestions on where to find deer....go ahead. I have no tag, as I filled my tag opening day in the unit I annually hunt. I am just trying to learn some new areas, with the idea that I MAY SOMEDAY get drawn for a special permit. Thanks in advance!
Post by: bobcat on December 08, 2012, 06:36:54 AM
Post by: Wacenturion on December 08, 2012, 08:36:27 AM
A lot of the hunt choices are migratory, which you you really can't scout out until just prior to the hunts.You can be scouting them right now. :twocents:
Probably the best piece of advice on this thread. :tup:
Post by: Skyvalhunter on December 08, 2012, 08:38:08 AM
Post by: bobcat on December 08, 2012, 12:07:39 PM
Post by: RifleRidge on December 08, 2012, 12:55:23 PM
Where's my popcorn, this thread has all the good elements in it.
:tup: :yeah:
Post by: wilsongideon on December 08, 2012, 04:46:37 PM
Post by: lemondog on December 08, 2012, 05:01:40 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on December 08, 2012, 05:08:29 PM
Post by: grundy53 on December 08, 2012, 07:29:53 PM
Whew glad you left off some of the better ones IMO:yeah:
Post by: bobcat on December 08, 2012, 08:05:40 PM
But the top 5 worst is easy: the blacktail deer permits in region 6.