Free: Contests & Raffles.
Quote from: Wacenturion on December 07, 2012, 03:19:50 PMFor deer I pick one and only one. Have no interest in another unit. If for some reason I changed my mind to say the Desert, it would still only one choice. I do the same for elk. If that is your strategy, well, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. To maximize my odds I always apply for the maximum number of choices allowed, and I put them in order from hardest to easiest.
For deer I pick one and only one. Have no interest in another unit. If for some reason I changed my mind to say the Desert, it would still only one choice. I do the same for elk.
A lot of the hunt choices are migratory, which you you really can't scout out until just prior to the hunts.
I still think the state should make us choose one, one only
I'd like to see it go west or east for deer too.
If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.
Quote from: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 09:57:06 PMIf 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.
Quote from: bobcat on December 07, 2012, 10:24:50 PMQuote from: grundy53 on December 07, 2012, 09:57:06 PMIf 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.It wouldn't be 16 divided by four it would be 16 multiplied by 4 which is 64. 16 people have 4 choices each. Thats 64. not 4.
You're making it too complicated. How many people are there and how many permits? That's all that matters. Four people will be drawn for hunts, out of 16 people. That's 1 in 4 odds. No matter how the drawing works, the odds are the same.
Obviously making it a smaller number to lessen the confusion doesn't work. Yes, your right if there are the exact same amount of people putting in for tags as there are choices available up to 16 then yes you are right. I should of caught that 4x4 =16 so my example doesn't work. But take my numbers and extrapolate the number of people putting in for the permits but leave the permit numbers the same. Which is how our current system is. so let's say 64 people only have one choice of 4 hunts and they are evenly distributed. That would be 16 16 16 and 16 which gives you a 6.25 percent chance of drawing. Now lets say the same 64 people get 4 choices. 64 64 64 and 64 = a 1.25 percent chance of drawing. Now that there isn't a tag per 4 choices it should be a little more clear....
Again, I'm only looking at the number of applicants and the number of permits. So you say there are 64 applicants, and 4 permits. That's 1 in 16 odds. Meaning out of every 16 people that applied, 1 will draw a permit.