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Author Topic: "points" is there really a point  (Read 6758 times)

Offline beauhunter

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"points" is there really a point
« on: May 09, 2019, 08:05:15 AM »
For the longest time people acquire points to try their hand at the lottery we all anticipate in the big game "draw" but every year your chances are depleting. I had a discussion about this system that wdfw uses with a fellow gambler in the big game lottery and realized that most people have no idea how it actually works. Most people think the more points they have the better their chances.  Not so much. This is the reality your points are squared then a computer assigns random numbers then you are assigned the lowest RANDOM number that was generated and enter into the drawing with one number. It's not like a raffle the more points you have the more entries, each person enters with one random number. Sorry to those who already knew this for the history lesson but it's was mind blowing of the amount of people I talk to that think they have 400 entries cause the have 20 points

Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2019, 08:12:28 AM »
You do get 400 "entries", they just drop all random numbers but the lowest one.

That said, the odds are so long that even if your odds double, it doesn't really matter.

Offline JimmyHoffa

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2019, 08:25:11 AM »
Right, each of the 400 gets a random assigned and the lowest is entered into the draw.  400 random numbers (20 pts) has a better chance of having lower number than 100 random numbers (10 pts).
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Offline beauhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2019, 08:39:31 AM »
But it is not impossible for someone who only has 1 point to be assigned #1, that's why it's is more a lottery then a drawing

Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2019, 08:46:50 AM »
What's the difference between a lottery and drawing?  In any bonus point system, it is random and there is a possibility that a guy with one can draw while a guy with 1000 might not.  Same with the lottery, one ticket can win.  Same with a drawing, one ticket can win.  It's a simple math discussion and I agree most don't understand and greatly overvalue their points.

The issue is that people with 10 or 20 points think they have an advantage when they don't realize how many other people have the same advantage.  This is because all point systems need to clear out max point holders every year or they end up in the same situation.  WA is already there and has been for several years and other states are on their way. 

Offline BULLBLASTER

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2019, 08:52:37 AM »
Yes the guy with 1 point can be assigned #1 but the guy with 20 points has 399 more chances to be #1 than the guy with 1 point. The system works as it was designed too, it is just a terrible system.  :twocents:

Offline JimmyHoffa

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2019, 08:58:55 AM »
Agree Stein.  The throughput rate is negative.  The points are entering faster than they are exiting, so there's an accumulation (when squared) that is really increasing and in most cases the value of the points decreases annually. About ten years ago I seem to remember some lesser known permits with little interest (anterless, much on private land) where more were leaving than coming in, so a few guys figured it out and were getting tags fairly regularly.
Epstein didn't kill himself.

Offline Brute

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2019, 09:00:21 AM »
 It's not Points it's Year's.

Offline beauhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2019, 09:15:10 AM »
So humor me.  what exactly is the point to "square" points. Why not if you have 20 points get 20 numbers,

Online Bob33

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2019, 09:26:30 AM »
The guy with 21 points may have slightly worse odds than he did the year before when he had 20 points. However, with 21 points he will always have better odds than someone with 20 points and far greater odds than someone with one point.
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Offline Woodchuck

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2019, 09:26:52 AM »
So humor me.  what exactly is the point to "square" points. Why not if you have 20 points get 20 numbers,
To give you false hope, it doesn't change the odds.
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Offline kentrek

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2019, 09:41:52 AM »
Why play if it sucks so bad ?....you go into this knowing your odds are terrible esp with tag numbers dropping so much..do you bank on winning the lottery? Then why bank on getting some of these tags....its just as bad in other states regardless of the system...I'm in for 8 states this year an still havent drawn....but that was my choice

You also cant change the amount of people changing which permit they put in for....heck one year your odds could go up or down just based off podcast with Steven rhinella.....

Dont choose to be miserable.. This is an awesome time we are living in

Offline beauhunter

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2019, 10:15:01 AM »
No one said anything about suck or bad we were just talking about the process and understanding it and yes I do play the lottery and think I am going to win otherwise why play. However if you start a lottery with 60-70/1 odds and then go to hundreds to 1 can't help feeling a little mislead lottery has always remained millions to one.

Online Karl Blanchard

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2019, 10:28:17 AM »
If a guy feels he has been misled or tricked he must only look in the mirror to see the reason. We are all grown adults with the ability to look things up rcw's or game laws.  We all have a phone we can use to call wdfw licensing officials who would be happy to explain how the draws work.  Instead however, most choose to stay uninformed and just complain about how they didn't draw a Colockum quality rifle rut tag because they have 15pts and the game regs say it's a 14pt average (there is only 1 tag :chuckle:).  Knowledge is power.  The better you understand how these systems work (not just in WA) the more calculated you will be with your application strategy which will result in more tags.   :twocents:
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Offline Mr Mykiss

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2019, 10:49:35 AM »
If a guy feels he has been misled or tricked he must only look in the mirror to see the reason. We are all grown adults with the ability to look things up rcw's or game laws.  We all have a phone we can use to call wdfw licensing officials who would be happy to explain how the draws work.  Instead however, most choose to stay uninformed and just complain about how they didn't draw a Colockum quality rifle rut tag because they have 15pts and the game regs say it's a 14pt average (there is only 1 tag :chuckle:).  Knowledge is power.  The better you understand how these systems work (not just in WA) the more calculated you will be with your application strategy which will result in more tags.   :twocents:
I have many "application strategy" consultants, they all work for free and they all hate their jobs...
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