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Author Topic: "points" is there really a point  (Read 5620 times)

Offline JimmyHoffa

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #30 on: May 09, 2019, 01:12:14 PM »
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
But if everyone else gains a point, a few new players join and not many high point holders leave, then the overall number of points goes up more than the number of people coming/going; so overall the odds will go down. ( I think that is what he's saying.)

Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #31 on: May 09, 2019, 01:15:22 PM »
Yeah, it's the truth.  If you have 19 points this year, you have better odds now than next year with 20 points.  It initially sounds backwards, but it's what happens with these types of schemes where you don't clear enough people out every year.

This year will be the best odds you ever have at any of the hard to draw tags (quality and OIL).

If you don't draw, your odds go down next year, the year after, the year after.....

Offline X-Force

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #32 on: May 09, 2019, 01:17:23 PM »
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
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Offline Woodchuck

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #33 on: May 09, 2019, 01:21:49 PM »
Except everyone else has squared points as well, the amount of "entries" changes but not the odds.

I'm not sure I understand.  With more points your odds improve BECAUSE you have more entries.
What I mean is that your odds don't change because of the squaring. The thing is that as your points go up, so does everyone else's points that don't draw, the proportion stays the same versus everyone else in the pool. The fact that the permit numbers are dwindling and we can't even clear out the max point holders means that as the years go by, the value of your points actually is dwindling.
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Offline NOCK NOCK

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #34 on: May 09, 2019, 01:26:20 PM »
The guy with 21 points may have slightly worse odds than he did the year before when he had 20 points. However, with 21 points he will always have better odds than someone with 20 points and far greater odds than someone with one point.


24 x 24 = 576
25 x 25 = 625 ~ 49 more than 24,s
26 x 26 = 676 ~ 51 more than 25’s
27 x 27 = 729 ~ 53 more than 26’s
For every applicant that your 1 point ahead of you get 2 extra chances  :chuckle:
Those who have obtained bonus/awarded points get an even greater advantage  :chuckle: :chuckle:

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Offline milldozer

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #35 on: May 09, 2019, 02:00:59 PM »
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
.
X-Force, care to share the GoHunt odds for that draw?  I just made a quick excel spreadsheet.  Curious how close I was.

Offline kentrek

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #36 on: May 09, 2019, 02:03:18 PM »
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.


Offline Buckhunter24

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #37 on: May 09, 2019, 02:07:27 PM »
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Offline BULLBLASTER

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #38 on: May 09, 2019, 03:25:31 PM »
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Remember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point.
You’ll never draw if you don’t apply. People draw with low points every year.

Offline Karl Blanchard

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #39 on: May 09, 2019, 04:13:57 PM »
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

Remember you are buying a chance at drawing the tag, not just a point.
You’ll never draw if you don’t apply. People draw with low points every year.
well not every year.  Some are on an every other year cycle
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Offline X-Force

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #40 on: May 09, 2019, 04:20:20 PM »
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
.
X-Force, care to share the GoHunt odds for that draw?  I just made a quick excel spreadsheet.  Curious how close I was.

For eniat quality rifle deer they are .5, 1.1, 2
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Offline avidnwoutdoorsman

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #41 on: May 09, 2019, 04:31:07 PM »
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/hunting/permits/2018_bull_elk_drawing_results_by_hunt_number.pdf

Bull Elk Drawing 2018, who was selected with how many points... can see any other permit hunt as well.

Offline milldozer

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #42 on: May 09, 2019, 04:34:55 PM »
I can see that, but what is the point of applying for a bunch of tags every year if you can't reasonably expect to draw one in your lifetime?  I did some quick math on the a few of the premier quality tags based on last years draw data..  For Entiat, an applicant with 10 points had a .5% chance to draw a tag.  15 points was 1.11% and 20 was 2%.  Disclaimer: I am no mathematician, but even if I'm off by a factor of 2 the odds are still abysmal.

 :chuckle: those are GOhunt odds.
.
X-Force, care to share the GoHunt odds for that draw?  I just made a quick excel spreadsheet.  Curious how close I was.

For eniat quality rifle deer they are .5, 1.1, 2

Hot damn!  Right on the money.

Offline avidnwoutdoorsman

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #43 on: May 09, 2019, 04:41:42 PM »
Isnt there info out there that shows what points people have when they draw some of these tags ??? I believe the majority was between 10 & 20 points which tells me the squared helps the folks with more points.

Id like to see that if there is. I havent been putting in a real long time I might stop

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/hunting/permits/2018_bull_elk_drawing_results_by_hunt_number.pdf

Bull Elk Drawing 2018, who was selected with how many points... can see any other permit hunt as well.

Sorry, you asked for Quality Elk

https://wdfw.wa.gov/sites/default/files/hunting/permits/2018_quality_elk_drawing_results_by_hunt_number.pdf

Offline Stein

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Re: "points" is there really a point
« Reply #44 on: May 09, 2019, 05:06:09 PM »
The real point in points is to get people to apply year after year and not skip years or give up because you have the "investment" to protect.  I know the math and odds and it still half killed me to pull the plug on the state this year.

 


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